Technology and BE

1. Technology and BE Session-11&12

2. Waves of Innovation • Technology as substitute of inputs • Malthus theory ignored tech • Kondratiev and Schumpeter- 1782-1845- Steam power and textile, 1845-1892- Railroad, iron coal construction, 1892-1948- Electric power, automobiles, chemicals and steel, !948-present-Semicunductor, electronic aerospace, petro-chemical and pharmaceuticals etc. • Change is not gentle but like series of explosions. • Innovation industry lead the economy, pioneers followed by imitators , crowed, and creative destruction starts – new innovation is needed.

3. Alternatives • Saturation in industry and then export of jobs. • Technological Pessimists- club of Rome-1972 • Tech optimists- Kahn, Herman and Fuller • Pessimists- Extrapolated population, resources, pollution, agriculture and industrial output to the end of next century- interdependent model- crisis can be averted only if Zero population growth is achieved. • Criticism- data is not fully developed, based on non- renewable resources, less space for tech development, socio-psychological considerations are ignored, world is treated as whole and not in political and economic entities.

4. Continue • Technological Optimism- based on trend extrapolation, scenario-writing and simple intuition. • New crisis and unexpected events may divert trend and alter expectations- following trend are likely to occur- 15-514. • Post industrial society-Bell- Different from industrial society in five ways- 15-514-5. • May lead to socio-cultural strife and require collective regulation • Criticize both pessimistic and optimistic views.

5. Continue • Guider extends Bell’s vision- powers of mind, wealth in the form of ideas and tech • Chips where material cost of production constitutes only 2%- main valuable part is idea and design.

6. Tech Forecasting • 25% of existing tech replaced every year. • So managers will have to cope with change through trends, expert opinion and by creating alternative scenario. • Trend is OK so long future resembles the past and interaction • Experts- They too make mistakes- like Thomas Edition’s lamp • Alternative scenario- Immediate, middle range and long range scenario- like Shell Oil. • Information flow is immense manager must know to select and use.

7. Next Wave of Innovation • Artificial intelligence, Genetic engineering, bio-electricity, laser, robotics, digital electronics, fiber optics, microwaves, satellites, solar energy, superconductors etc.

8. Obstacle in adopting new tech • Difference between invention and innovation • Artificial Intelligence:- Performance disappointing , many companies has closed down and sales which are expected to be billion $ could not exceed 600million. • Allow computer to mimic human being- as alternative to human reasoning. Example software expert system. • Problem with AI is that researchers lack sense of market.

9. Continue • Genetic Engineering:- Sales are more than 1 billion $. • In spite of heavy research expenditure very few drugs could become commercially successful. Most still developing product in Lab. • So many regulators and guidelines unclear. • Monsanto- BHG hormone a protein increase milk yield • Monsanto herbicide and pesticide for cotton and soybean. Pesticide resistance crop rather than pest resistant.

10. Continue • Why Technologies fail;- Because of so many uncertainties are attached to new tech. • Role of customers, uncertain govt. support, striving for constant innovation. • Tech push and market pull factors- 15-4 • Japanese innovation style- 15-5