Hydro, wind, and other renewables
Download
1 / 130

actual - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 90 Views
  • Uploaded on

Hydro, wind, and other renewables. forecast. actual. Conventional heavy oil. Figure 1. Total energy production in Alberta. NGLs. Coalbed methane. Conventional natural gas. Mined and in situ bitumen. Conventional L&M oil. Coal. actual. forecast. Non upgraded bitumen. SCO.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' actual' - roary-holloway


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript

Hydro, wind, and other renewables

forecast

actual

Conventional heavy oil

Figure 1

Total energy production in Alberta

NGLs

Coalbed methane

Conventional natural gas

Mined and in situ bitumen

Conventional L&M oil

Coal


actual

forecast

Non upgraded bitumen

SCO

Pentanes plus

Heavy

Light-medium

Figure 3. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent


Figure 4 total marketable gas production and demand
Figure 4 Total marketable gas production and demand

actual

forecast

23%

26%

33%

44%

58%


Bitumen* - includes producing and evaluation wells

Gas** - includes CBM wells

Other *** - includes unsuccessful, service, and suspended wells

Figure 5. Drilling Activity in Alberta, 1948 – 2008


ERCB Prorationing Plan (restricted production)

Major Oil Field Discoveries

1947 – Leduc

1948 – Redwater

1949 – Golden Spike

1952 – Bonnie Glen

1953 – Pembina

1957 – Swan Hills

1959 – Judy Creek

1959 – Swan Hills South

1965 - Rainbow

Major Events Affecting Price

1973 – Oil Embargo

1979 – Iranian Revolution

1980 – Iran / Iraq War

1986 – OPEC Crumbles

1990 – Gulf War

1998 – Asian Econ. Crisis

2001 – 9 / 11

2003 – Iraq War

Export Pipelines

1950 – Interprovincial Pipeline (Enbridge)

1953 – Trans Mountain Pipe Line

1938 - Petroleum and Natural Gas Conservation

Board (ERCB) created to enforce production

standards

Source: Prices - CAPP Statistical Handbook

Figure 6. Alberta Conventional Crude Oil Production and Price


Alberta Oil Sands Project Startup

Great Canadian Oil Sands (Suncor) Startup

Syncrude Startup

Figure 7. Alberta mined bitumen and synthetic crude oil production and price



Hurricanes Katrina and Rita

hit U.S. Gulf Coast

Foothills Pipe Lines built for

gas exports to California and the

mid-western U.S.

Northern Border pipeline expansion

Alliance Pipeline on stream

PGT expansion

Regulated gas price

tied to oil prices;

Surplus built up

Price deregulation

Surplus gas drives

down prices

Arbitration awards

price increase

Gas prices as a by-product

of oil production. Price less

than replacement cost

Figure 9 Historical natural gas production and price


Prices reached highs in the

US$650-$840/tonne range

in 2008

Figure 10 Sulphur closing inventories in Alberta and price


Late 1990’s – mine closures and reduced coal exports due to depressed coal prices

1970’s – increase in coal-fired electric generation

1952 – Beginning of change to diesel-electric trains

1950’s – Crude oil and natural gas replace coal as energy source of choice

Late1960’s – Beginning of exports to Japan for steel industry

1898 – Expansion of railway network (coal and oil fired steam engines)

and growth of population

1960 – Steam rail era ends

Coal remained “King Coal”

until huge reservoirs

of crude oil and natural gas

were discovered

Figure 11

Historical coal production and price

Australian-Japan contract price for thermal coal (Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics - ABARE)


Figure 1.1 OPEC crude basket reference price 2008 to depressed coal prices

Source: OPEC


forecast to depressed coal prices

actual

High

Low

Figure 1.3 Price of WTI at Chicago


forecast to depressed coal prices

actual

High

Low

Figure 1.4 Average price of oil at Alberta wellhead


Light-medium to depressed coal prices

Heavy

Bitumen

Figure 1.5 2008 average monthly reference prices in Alberta


high to depressed coal prices

forecast

actual

low

Figure 1.7 Average price of natural gas at plant gate


actual to depressed coal prices

forecast

Figure 1.8 Alberta Wholesale Electricity Prices


Unemployment vs. GDP growth to depressed coal prices

Unemployment rate

Real GDP growth

Prime vs. inflation

Prime rate on Loans

Inflation rate

Exchange Rate

Figure 1.10 Canadian economic indicators

Source: Statistics Canada, Bank of Canada


actual to depressed coal prices

forecast

Oil sands

Conventional oil and gas

Coal and metal mining*

Residential

Public

Other

Figure 1.11 Alberta real investment

Source: Statistics Canada, Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers

*includes support activities to mining and oil and gas extraction


N/A to depressed coal prices

2007 - 2008 Value of Production in Alberta



ATHABASCA development

114.7

PEACE RIVER

6.4

36.9

COLD LAKE

49.4

In Situ

Mined Bitumen

Figure 2.8.

Production of Bitumen in

Alberta, 2008 103 m3/d




Peace River OSA bitumen wells

Athabasca OSA

Synthetic Crude Oil

Cold Lake OSA

Figure 2.11. In situ bitumen production by oil sands area (OSA)


Experimental Production bitumen wells

SAGD Production

CSS Production

Synthetic Crude Oil

Primary Production

Figure 2.12. In situ bitumen production by recovery method


actual bitumen wells

forecast

Surface mining

In situ

Figure 2.13. Alberta crude bitumen production


actual bitumen wells

forecast

Synthetic crude oil

Synthetic Crude Oil

Figure 2.14. Alberta synthetic crude oil production


Synthetic Crude Oil bitumen wells

Oil Sands Plants – Coke Inventory

Figure 2.17. Alberta oil sands upgrading coke inventory


actual bitumen wells

forecast

Nonupgraded bitumen removals from Alberta

SCO removals from Alberta

Synthetic Crude Oil

Alberta demand (mainly SCO)

Figure 2.18. Alberta demand and disposition of

crude bitumen and SCO


Heavy bitumen wells

Light-medium

Figure 3.1 Remaining established reserves of crude oil




(10 bitumen wells3 m3)

Total number of pools

Initial reserves

(103m3)

Remaining reserves

(103m3)

Figure 3.4 Distribution of oil reserves by size



Figure 3 7 geological distribution of reserves of conventional crude oil
Figure 3.7 Geological distribution of reserves of bitumen wellsconventional crude oil


2008 Initial established reserves bitumen wells

2773 106 m3

2008 Remaining established reserves

233 106 m3

187

156

18

10

1184

490

48

467

Fig. 3.8. Regional distribution of Alberta oil reserves 2008 (106 m3)

71

43

5

21

268

38



2% versus cumulative production

<1%

100%

3%

11%

12%

2007 Wells Drilled = 1796

2008 Wells Drilled = 1788

40

39

3%

210

206

369

499

350

486

5%

396

352

Figure 3.11.

Alberta successful

oil well drilling By

modified PSAC area

1

0

336

300


35 versus cumulative production

197

428

350

431

Figure 3.12.

Oil wells placed

on production, 2008

by modified PSAC area

1

296

Total wells = 1738


16.1 versus cumulative production

[101]

9.6

[60]

8.5

[54]

7.6

[48]

5.1

[32]

Figure 3.13.

Initial operating day

rates of oil wells placed

on production, 2008

by modified PSAC area

2.4

[15]

6.6

[42]

m3/day/well


PSAC 8 versus cumulative production

PSAC 7

PSAC 5

PSAC 4

PSAC 3

PSAC 2

PSAC 1

Figure 3.14. Conventional crude oil production by modified PSAC area




Pre-1999 versus cumulative production

1999

2001

2000

2002

2003

2004

2006

2005

2007

2008

6%

%

of total

production

from oil wells

9%

8%

7%

5%

5%

3%

3%

4%

2%

48%

Figure 3.18. Total conventional crude oil production by drilled year


Texas onshore versus cumulative production

Alberta crude oil

Louisiana onshore

Figure 3.19. Comparison of crude oil production


actual versus cumulative production

forecast

Figure 3.20. WTI crude oil price and well activity


actual versus cumulative production

forecast

Heavy

Light-medium

Figure 3.21. Alberta average daily production of crude oil



actual versus cumulative production

forecast

Crude oil removals from Alberta

Alberta demand

Figure 3.23. Alberta demand and disposition of crude oil


actual versus cumulative production

forecast

Non upgraded bitumen

SCO

Pentanes plus

Heavy

Light-medium

Figure 3.24. Alberta supply of crude oil and equivalent


actual versus cumulative production

forecast

Figure 3.25. Alberta crude oil and equivalent production


Mannville versus cumulative production

HSC




Figure 5 3 new development and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves
Figure 5.3 New, development, and revisions to conventional marketable gas reserves

* Distribution of changes revised in 2008


Total number of pools marketable gas reserves

(106m3)

Initial reserves

(109m3)

Remaining reserves

(109m3)

Figure 5.5 Distribution of conventional gas reserves by size




Figure 5 8 remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas
Figure 5.8 Remaining conventional marketable reserves of sweet and sour gas

Sweet natural gas

Sour natural gas



Figure 5 11 conventional gas ultimate potential
Figure 5.11 Conventional gas ultimate potential components

Ultimate potential based on EUB/NEB 2005 Report

Remaining reserves

Production



36% components

38%

61%

47%

1%

2%

21%

21%

2008 wells drilled = 7310

27%

95

61

111

43

288

152

2128

302

308

2106

1248

986

Figure 5.14

Alberta successful gas

well drilling (conventional)

by modified PSAC area

91

56

4959

3604

2007 wells drilled = 9228



2007 Wells connected

Total Wells connected = 9286

2008 Wells

Total Wells connected = 7907

119

96

168

84

270

193

2168

2004

1427

1213

477

378

Figure 5.16

Conventional gas

well connections

by modified PSAC area

100

70

4557

3869


% connected

of total

production

1%

PSAC 8

PSAC 7

PSAC 6

4%

3%

PSAC 5

11%

PSAC 4

4%

20%

PSAC 3

42%

PSAC 2

PSAC 1

6%

Gas from oil wells

9%

Figure 5.18 Marketable gas production by modified PSAC area




% number of producing wells

of total

production

from gas wells

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2006

2005

2007

1999

9

2008

13

Pre - 1999

11

9

8

6

5

5

4

3

27

Gas from oil wells

Connection year

Figure 5.22 Raw gas production by connection year



US total production number of producing wells

Texas onshore

Louisiana onshore

Alberta

Figure 5.24 Comparison of raw natural gas production



actual in Alberta

forecast

Figure 5.26 Alberta natural gas well activity and price


actual in Alberta

forecast

Figure 5.27 Conventional marketable gas production


Figure 5 28 gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations
Figure 5.28 Gas production from bitumen upgrading and bitumen wells used for oil sands operations

actual

forecast


Figure 5 29 total gas production in alberta
Figure 5.29 Total gas production in Alberta bitumen wells used for oil sands operations

actual

forecast



actual volumes

forecast

Reprocessing plant shrinkage

Transportation

Electricity generation

Other industrial

Industrial - petrochemical

Industrial – oil sands

Commercial

Residential

Figure 5.33 Alberta marketable gas demand by sector



forecast permitting”

actual

In Situ Cogeneration

In Situ

Mining and Upgrading Cogeneration

Mining and Upgrading

Figure 5.35 Purchased natural gas demand for oil sands operations


actual permitting”

forecast

Purchased gas

Produced gas from bitumen

Process gas from upgrading*

Figure 5.36 Gas demand for bitumen recovery and upgrading

* Does not included process gas for electricity generation.


forecast permitting”

actual

Process Gas for Electricity Cogeneration

Purchased Gas for

Electricity Cogeneration

Purchased Gas for In situ Recovery

Produced Gas from Bitumen Wells for In situ Recovery

Process Gas for Mining/Upgrading

Purchased Gas for Mining/Upgrading

Figure 5.37 Total Purchased, Process and Produced Gas for Oil Sands Production


Figure 5 38 total marketable gas production and demand
Figure 5.38 Total marketable gas production and demand permitting”

actual

forecast

23%

26%

33%

44%

58%


Figure 6.1 Remaining established NGL reserves expected to be extracted from conventional gas and annual production



Figure 6.4. natural gas liquidsEthane supply and demand

actual forecast


Figure 6.5. Propane supply from natural gas and demand natural gas liquids

actual forecast

Supply

Alberta Demand*

* excludes solvent flood volumes


Figure 6.6. Butanes supply from natural gas and demand natural gas liquids

actual forecast

Supply

Alberta Demand*

* excludes solvent flood volumes


Figure 6.7. Pentanes supply from natural gas and demand for diluent

actual forecast

Supply

demand met by alternative

sources and types of diluent

Alberta Demand*

* excludes solvent flood volumes




Refining and upgrading in

Sour gas

Figure 7.3 Sources of sulphur production



actual forecast in

Total Demand

Stockpile Withdrawals

Stockpile

Production

Removed from Alberta

Alberta Demand

Figure 7.5 Sulphur demand and supply in Alberta


actual in

forecast

Figure 8.2

Alberta marketable coal production

Metallurgical bituminous

Thermal bituminous

Subbituminous


actual in

forecast

Figure 9.1. Alberta electricity generating capacity


actual in

forecast

Figure 9.2. Alberta electricity generation



actual in

forecast

Figure 9.4. Alberta electricity consumption by sector


Electricity Generation in

forecast

actual

Demand

9.5. Alberta oil sands electricity generation and demand


ad