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Canada’s Fiscal Challenges

Canada’s Fiscal Challenges. The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) The 2012 Outlook Conference Edmonton, Alberta December 6, 2012. Kevi n Page Parliamentary Budget Officer. IMF World Output Growth Outlook. per cent. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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Canada’s Fiscal Challenges

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  1. Canada’s Fiscal Challenges The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) The 2012 Outlook Conference Edmonton, Alberta December 6, 2012 Kevin Page Parliamentary Budget Officer

  2. IMF World Output Growth Outlook per cent Source: International Monetary Fund.

  3. U.S. Output Gap, 1961 to 2017 per cent of potential GDP Sources: Office of the PBO; Bureau of Economic Analysis.

  4. Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index 1972 = 100, U.S. dollar terms Sources: Office of the PBO; Bank of Canada. Note: The PBO April 2012 projection has been adjusted for historical revisions.

  5. PBO Economic Outlook – April and October 2012 Source: Office of the PBO.

  6. PBO Economic Outlook – April and October 2012 Source: Office of the PBO.

  7. Real and Potential GDP billions of chained (2002) dollars Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.

  8. Output Gap, 1976 to 2017 per cent of potential GDP Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.

  9. Economic Impacts of Federal Government Spending Reductions and Restraint per cent thousands Source: Office of the PBO. Note: The estimated impacts on real GDP and employment do not take into account offsetting impacts from changes to interest and exchange rates.

  10. Revisions to Real GDP Growth Outlook per cent Sources: Office of the PBO; September 2012 private sector forecasts.

  11. Growth in Direct Program Expenses, 1984-85 to 2017-18 per cent Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.

  12. PBO Fiscal Projection – Summary billions of dollars Source: Office of the PBO.

  13. Budgetary Balance Outcomes Given Economic Uncertainty billions of dollars Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.

  14. Structural and Cyclical Budget Balance Estimates billions of dollars Source: Office of the PBO.

  15. Structural Budget Balance, 1976-77 to 2017-18 per cent of potential income Source: Office of the PBO.

  16. The Demographic Transition per cent Source: FSR 2012

  17. Average Annual Real GDP Growth per cent Source: FSR 2012

  18. Government Sector Net Debt-to-GDP,1991 to 2086 per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  19. Fiscal Gap Estimates per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  20. Impacts of Key Policy Changes on the Federal Fiscal Gap since the 2011 FSR per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  21. Steady-State Contribution Rate Estimates per cent Source: FSR 2012

  22. Elderly Benefits, 1961 to 2086 per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  23. Provincial – Territorial – Local Government Health Spending, 1975 to 2086 per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  24. Federal CHT Relative to Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Health Spending, 2011 to 2086 per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  25. Federal Government Operating Balance and net Debt, 1991 to 2086 per cent of GDP per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  26. Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Operating Balance and Net Debt, 1991 to 2086 per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

  27. Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Fiscal Gap Estimate under Alternative Implementation Dates per cent of GDP Source: FSR 2012

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