Canada s fiscal challenges
Download
1 / 27

Canada’s Fiscal Challenges - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 64 Views
  • Uploaded on

Canada’s Fiscal Challenges. The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) The 2012 Outlook Conference Edmonton, Alberta December 6, 2012. Kevi n Page Parliamentary Budget Officer. IMF World Output Growth Outlook. per cent. Source: International Monetary Fund.

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Canada’s Fiscal Challenges' - rivka


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
Canada s fiscal challenges

Canada’s Fiscal Challenges

The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA)

The 2012 Outlook Conference

Edmonton, Alberta

December 6, 2012

Kevin Page Parliamentary Budget Officer


IMF World Output Growth Outlook

per cent

Source: International Monetary Fund.


U.S. Output Gap, 1961 to 2017

per cent of potential GDP

Sources: Office of the PBO; Bureau of Economic Analysis.


Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index

1972 = 100, U.S. dollar terms

Sources: Office of the PBO; Bank of Canada.

Note: The PBO April 2012 projection has been adjusted for historical revisions.




Real and Potential GDP

billions of chained (2002) dollars

Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.


Output Gap, 1976 to 2017

per cent of potential GDP

Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.


Economic Impacts of Federal Government Spending Reductions and Restraint

per cent

thousands

Source: Office of the PBO.

Note: The estimated impacts on real GDP and employment do not take into account offsetting impacts from changes to interest and exchange rates.


Revisions to Real GDP Growth Outlook and Restraint

per cent

Sources: Office of the PBO; September 2012 private sector forecasts.


Growth in Direct Program Expenses, 1984-85 to 2017-18 and Restraint

per cent

Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.


PBO Fiscal Projection – Summary and Restraint

billions of dollars

Source: Office of the PBO.


Budgetary Balance Outcomes Given Economic Uncertainty and Restraint

billions of dollars

Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.


Structural and Cyclical Budget Balance Estimates and Restraint

billions of dollars

Source: Office of the PBO.


Structural Budget Balance, 1976-77 to 2017-18 and Restraint

per cent of potential income

Source: Office of the PBO.


The Demographic Transition and Restraint

per cent

Source: FSR 2012


Average Annual Real GDP Growth and Restraint

per cent

Source: FSR 2012


Government Sector Net Debt-to-GDP, and Restraint1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Fiscal Gap Estimates and Restraint

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Impacts of Key Policy Changes on the Federal Fiscal Gap and Restraint

since the 2011 FSR

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Steady-State Contribution Rate Estimates and Restraint

per cent

Source: FSR 2012


Elderly Benefits, 1961 to 2086 and Restraint

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Provincial – Territorial – Local Government and Restraint

Health Spending, 1975 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Federal CHT Relative to Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Health Spending, 2011 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Federal Government Operating Balance and net Debt, 1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Operating Balance and Net Debt, 1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Fiscal Gap Estimate under Alternative Implementation Dates

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012


ad