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Canada’s Fiscal Challenges. The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA) The 2012 Outlook Conference Edmonton, Alberta December 6, 2012. Kevi n Page Parliamentary Budget Officer. IMF World Output Growth Outlook. per cent. Source: International Monetary Fund.

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canada s fiscal challenges

Canada’s Fiscal Challenges

The Economic Society of Northern Alberta (ESNA)

The 2012 Outlook Conference

Edmonton, Alberta

December 6, 2012

Kevin Page Parliamentary Budget Officer

slide2

IMF World Output Growth Outlook

per cent

Source: International Monetary Fund.

slide3

U.S. Output Gap, 1961 to 2017

per cent of potential GDP

Sources: Office of the PBO; Bureau of Economic Analysis.

slide4

Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index

1972 = 100, U.S. dollar terms

Sources: Office of the PBO; Bank of Canada.

Note: The PBO April 2012 projection has been adjusted for historical revisions.

slide7

Real and Potential GDP

billions of chained (2002) dollars

Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.

slide8

Output Gap, 1976 to 2017

per cent of potential GDP

Sources: Office of the PBO; Statistics Canada.

slide9

Economic Impacts of Federal Government Spending Reductions and Restraint

per cent

thousands

Source: Office of the PBO.

Note: The estimated impacts on real GDP and employment do not take into account offsetting impacts from changes to interest and exchange rates.

slide10

Revisions to Real GDP Growth Outlook

per cent

Sources: Office of the PBO; September 2012 private sector forecasts.

slide11

Growth in Direct Program Expenses, 1984-85 to 2017-18

per cent

Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.

slide12

PBO Fiscal Projection – Summary

billions of dollars

Source: Office of the PBO.

slide13

Budgetary Balance Outcomes Given Economic Uncertainty

billions of dollars

Sources: Office of the PBO; Finance Canada.

slide14

Structural and Cyclical Budget Balance Estimates

billions of dollars

Source: Office of the PBO.

slide15

Structural Budget Balance, 1976-77 to 2017-18

per cent of potential income

Source: Office of the PBO.

slide16

The Demographic Transition

per cent

Source: FSR 2012

slide17

Average Annual Real GDP Growth

per cent

Source: FSR 2012

slide18

Government Sector Net Debt-to-GDP,1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide19

Fiscal Gap Estimates

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide20

Impacts of Key Policy Changes on the Federal Fiscal Gap

since the 2011 FSR

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide22

Elderly Benefits, 1961 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide23

Provincial – Territorial – Local Government

Health Spending, 1975 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide24

Federal CHT Relative to Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Health Spending, 2011 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide25

Federal Government Operating Balance and net Debt, 1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide26

Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Operating Balance and Net Debt, 1991 to 2086

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

slide27

Provincial-Territorial-Local Government Fiscal Gap Estimate under Alternative Implementation Dates

per cent of GDP

Source: FSR 2012

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