# Understanding Randomness - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Understanding Randomness. Ch. 11. Randomness. Can not guess outcome ahead of time “Fair” selection between outcomes A pain in the butt in Unit I and II A necessary and useful tool in Unit III (and all of statistics). Using Randomness.

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Understanding Randomness

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## Understanding Randomness

Ch. 11

### Randomness

• Can not guess outcome ahead of time

• “Fair” selection between outcomes

• A pain in the butt in Unit I and II

• A necessary and useful tool in Unit III (and all of statistics)

### Using Randomness

We will imitate real processes to manipulate, control, and understand them using simulation

### Simulation

• The sequence of events we want to investigate is called a trial.

• The basic building block of a simulation is called a component.

• Trials usually involve several components.

• After the trial, we record what happened—our response variable.

### Think, Show, Tell

• Thinkfirst. Know where you are headed and why.

• Show your work. The mechanics of the calculation are important but can not exist on there own.

• Tellyour conclusion in the context of the problem

### Simulation Steps

• Identify the component to be repeated.

• Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.

• Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.

• State clearly what the response variable is.

• Run several trials.

• Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.

• State your conclusion in the context of the problem.

### What Can Go Wrong?

• Don’t overstate your case.

• Beware of confusing what really happens with what a simulation suggests might happen.

• Model outcome chances accurately.

• A common mistake in constructing a simulation is to adopt a strategy that may appear to produce the right kind of results.

• Run enough trials.

• Simulation is cheap and fairly easy to do.