Understanding randomness
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Understanding Randomness. Ch. 11. Randomness. Can not guess outcome ahead of time “Fair” selection between outcomes A pain in the butt in Unit I and II A necessary and useful tool in Unit III (and all of statistics). Using Randomness.

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Understanding Randomness

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Understanding randomness

Understanding Randomness

Ch. 11


Randomness

Randomness

  • Can not guess outcome ahead of time

  • “Fair” selection between outcomes

  • A pain in the butt in Unit I and II

  • A necessary and useful tool in Unit III (and all of statistics)


Using randomness

Using Randomness

We will imitate real processes to manipulate, control, and understand them using simulation


Simulation

Simulation

  • The sequence of events we want to investigate is called a trial.

  • The basic building block of a simulation is called a component.

    • Trials usually involve several components.

  • After the trial, we record what happened—our response variable.


Think show tell

Think, Show, Tell

  • Thinkfirst. Know where you are headed and why.

  • Show your work. The mechanics of the calculation are important but can not exist on there own.

  • Tellyour conclusion in the context of the problem


Simulation steps

Simulation Steps

  • Identify the component to be repeated.

  • Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.

  • Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.

  • State clearly what the response variable is.

  • Run several trials.

  • Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.

  • State your conclusion in the context of the problem.


What can go wrong

What Can Go Wrong?

  • Don’t overstate your case.

    • Beware of confusing what really happens with what a simulation suggests might happen.

  • Model outcome chances accurately.

    • A common mistake in constructing a simulation is to adopt a strategy that may appear to produce the right kind of results.

  • Run enough trials.

    • Simulation is cheap and fairly easy to do.


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