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Understanding Randomness

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Understanding Randomness

Ch. 11

- Can not guess outcome ahead of time
- “Fair” selection between outcomes
- A pain in the butt in Unit I and II
- A necessary and useful tool in Unit III (and all of statistics)

We will imitate real processes to manipulate, control, and understand them using simulation

- The sequence of events we want to investigate is called a trial.
- The basic building block of a simulation is called a component.
- Trials usually involve several components.

- After the trial, we record what happened—our response variable.

- Thinkfirst. Know where you are headed and why.
- Show your work. The mechanics of the calculation are important but can not exist on there own.
- Tellyour conclusion in the context of the problem

- Identify the component to be repeated.
- Explain how you will model the component’s outcome.
- Explain how you will combine the components to model a trial.
- State clearly what the response variable is.
- Run several trials.
- Collect and summarize the results of all the trials.
- State your conclusion in the context of the problem.

- Don’t overstate your case.
- Beware of confusing what really happens with what a simulation suggests might happen.

- Model outcome chances accurately.
- A common mistake in constructing a simulation is to adopt a strategy that may appear to produce the right kind of results.

- Run enough trials.
- Simulation is cheap and fairly easy to do.