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Washington County HRA February 3, 2014

County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc . Washington County HRA February 3, 2014. Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study. Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market Document housing needs Guide HRA strategic planning

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Washington County HRA February 3, 2014

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  1. County Market Study: Cottage Grove Maxfield Research Inc. Washington County HRA February 3, 2014

  2. Maxfield Research Inc. Housing Study • Purpose – independent third party analysis of county housing market • Document housing needs • Guide HRA strategic planning • Assist with funding applications • Define relationship between housing and economic development 2

  3. Study Objectives • Examine existing housing market and demographic trends • Research existing and projected economic and job sector data • Identify future senior and workforce housing demand to 2030 • Identify senior housing trends • Develop affordable housing production scenarios

  4. Submarket Map • 10 submarkets • East vs. West • Cottage Grove submarket includes • Cottage Grove • Grey Cloud Island • St. Paul Park • Newport

  5. Met Council Projections Cottage Grove Submarket Population Projections Cottage Grove Submarket 2010 Census Population • Met Council current “draft” projection for 2040 is lower than 2030 projection • Maxfield in middle of two Met Council projections

  6. Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics • Steady growth • Decline in household size also evident

  7. Cottage Grove Study Findings - Demographics Cottage Grove and County Population Change 1980-2010 and 2010-2030

  8. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Jobs • 9,368 total jobs • 12.7% of County • Education & Health Services largest • 25% of total • Manufacturing; Education & Health Services; Other Services high concentration • Between 2011-12 • Number employees drop 170; 1.8% (County + 0.9%) • Number of businesses + 20

  9. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Wages Average Weekly Wages • Low wages compared to County and Metro

  10. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Employment Cottage Grove and County Employment Change

  11. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing General Occupancy Rental Inventory Average Rent (July 2013)

  12. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Housing Existing Senior Housing Inventory * Some properties offer multiples service levels

  13. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand • Greatest demand for Single Family through 2030 • Close to jobs in downtowns and Woodbury

  14. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand 2013-2020 General Occupancy Demand • Single family 55% • Multifamily 30% • Rental 16%

  15. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand • Greatest demand for Single Family Move Up through 2030 • No new rental development since Hinton Heights in 1993

  16. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand • 2020 point in time demand for senior housing

  17. Cottage Grove Study Findings- Demand • 2030 point in time demand for senior housing includes 2020 demand • Norris Square built in 2010 • Additional units needed to meet future demand as population ages

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