SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING
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SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING by Bob Dean University of Florida. Questions to Address.

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SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING by Bob Dean University of Florida

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Sea level change and transportation planning by bob dean university of florida

SEA LEVEL CHANGE AND TRANSPORTATION PLANNING

by

Bob Dean

University of Florida


Questions to address

Questions to Address

(1) What is the Long-term History of Sea Level Change?(2) Is Global Sea Level Currently Rising? If so, What is the Rate?(3) Is Global Sea Level Accelerating? If so, What is the Rate?(4) Prognosis for Future Sea Level Rise Rates. (5) Relevance to ransportation System Design


Questions to address the engineering response

Questions to Address(The Engineering Response)

(1) Incorporate Effect in Initial Design(2) Retrofit at Some Future Time

An Afterthought: Possible Role of Sunspots on Global Climate Change


Relative sea level rise definitions

Relative Sea Level Rise: Definitions

Relative Sea Level Rise (RSLR) = Global Sea Level Rise + Local EffectsGlobal = EustaticLocal = Tectonic + Compaction + Post Glacial Rebound + Subsidence + …….


Components of eustatic slr

Components of Eustatic SLR

(1)Thermal expansion of water(2) Alpine glaciers(3) Ice Sheets: Greenland, and Antartica


Sea level change over the last 500 million years

Sea Level Change Over the Last 500 Million Years


Sea level change over the last 1 million years

Sea Level Change Over the Last 1 Million Years


Sea level rise over the last 24 000 years

Sea Level Rise Over the Last 24,000 Years


Sea level rise over the last 8 000 years

Sea Level Rise Over the Last 8,000 Years


World wide distribution of long term tide gages

World Wide Distribution of Long- Term Tide Gages


Relative sea level change based on tide gage data

Relative Sea Level Change Based on Tide Gage Data


Rsl change juneau ak an example of post glacial rebound

RSL Change: Juneau, AKAn Example of Post Glacial Rebound


Rsl change adak ak note tectonic effects

RSL Change: Adak, AKNote Tectonic Effects


Rsl trends in alaska

RSL Trends in Alaska


Subsidence

Subsidence

  • Subsidence can be substantial exceeding the eustatic component significantlyLong Beach, CA: > 6 m due to hydrocarbon extractionTokyo: 3.5 m due to water extractionOsaka: > 2 m due to water extractionCoastal Louisiana: Up to 1 m per century due to natural and anthropogenic causes


Subsidence due to natural and human causes

Subsidence Due to Natural and Human Causes


Production rates and bottom hole pressure reduction valentine oil field la

Production Rates and Bottom Hole Pressure Reduction. Valentine Oil Field, LA

a) Production Rates of Oil, Gas and Water

b) Reduction in Bottom Hole Pressure


Eustatic sea level rise estimates

Eustatic Sea Level Rise Estimates


Average sea level rise over the last 120 years

Average Sea Level Rise Over the Last 120 Years


Is global sea level rising

Is Global Sea Level Rising?

Yes. Over the Past Century, the Rate Has Been Between 1 and 2 mm/year (I Like 1.2 mm/year).A Caveat: Most Tide Gages Are Located Near Areas of Ground Water Extraction. Effect on Gage Readings?


Is sea level rise accelerating

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating?

Rate of CO2 Increase, Mauna Loa, HI


Average global temperature change

Average Global Temperature Change


Some predictions and considerations of future sea level rise 1980 s

Some Predictions and Considerations of Future Sea Level Rise, 1980’s


Sea level rise projections ipcc

Sea Level Rise Projections (IPCC)

Long-term Eustatic Rate


Is sea level accelerating

Is Sea Level Accelerating?


Long term rslr at several locations

Long Term RSLR at Several Locations


Ipcc estimates of future slr

IPCC Estimates of Future SLR


Probabilities of sea level rise 2000 to 2200

Probabilities of Sea Level Rise:2000 to 2200


Is sea level accelerating1

Is Sea Level Accelerating?

(1)There are Indications of Sea Level Acceleration Although They Are Weak and do not Appear to be Increasing(2)Probably Won’t Know About Anthropogenic Effects Definitively for 30 or More Years


Will sea level rise accelerate in the future

Will Sea Level Rise Accelerate in the Future?

Probably, However, the Timing and Rates are Extremely UncertainAs Support, the Predicted Rates of Acceleration Have Decreased Since 1984 When Some Early Predictions Started


Engineering responses

Engineering Responses

* Some Highways: Increase Protection as Need Becomes Apparent* Bridges and Other Infrastructure Less Suited for Retrofitting: Allow for RSLR in Original Design


Example discussion coastal highways

Example/DiscussionCoastal Highways

* Base design on predictions of local RSLR* Usually, not readily retrofitted during design life* Flooding of special concern if evacuation route* If evacuation route, design for upper limit of probabilities


Example discussion revetment protecting a coastal highway

Example/DiscussionRevetment Protecting a Coastal Highway

* Several coastal engineering options for retrofitting during design life, including* Adding more and heavier armor units* Beach nourishment to reduce size of waves


Summary

Summary

  • Sea level has changed over millions of years under natural forcing

  • Current rates of eustatic sea level rise are between 1.2 to 2.0 mm/yr

  • There is not consensus of an acceleration of eustatic sea level rise nor of the role of human activity

  • Transportation and design should understand coastal engineering options for retrofitting during design life

  • Transportation planning and design should include local relative sea level rise if critical to the performance


Possible role of sunspots in eustatic sea level rise

Possible Role of Sunspots in Eustatic Sea Level Rise


Solar forcing and glaciation stages

Solar Forcing and Glaciation Stages


Sunspot history 1700 to 2006

Sunspot History:1700 to 2006


Recent sunspot activity

Recent Sunspot Activity


Correlation between sunspot numbers and solar flux

Correlation Between Sunspot Numbers and Solar Flux


Yearly sunspot numbers 1610 to 2000

Yearly Sunspot Numbers:1610 to 2000


Reconstructed temperature 0 to 2000 ad note little ice age period

Reconstructed Temperature:0 to 2000 AD(Note “Little Ice Age” Period)


Questions

QUESTIONS?


Example of acceleration concerns of sea level rates 1983

Example of Acceleration Concerns of Sea Level Rates (1983)


Is sea level rise accelerating1

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating?

Consider:and evaluate a and b from the data on the following slide. b is an acceleration term.


Is sea level rise accelerating2

Is Sea Level Rise Accelerating?

This leads to:

Where

Is the average of the time period over

which is determined. Solving for

a and b from the data yields very unrealistic results signifying that the data are not well conditioned for this purpose.


Engineering response

Engineering Response

NRC Report (1984)“The Prognosis for Sea Level Rise Should Not be a Cause for Alarm or Complacency”


Measurement of sea level change

Measurement of Sea Level Change


Outline

Outline

(1) Definitions(2) Discuss Magnitudes of Relative Sea Level Rise(3) Is the rate of sea level rise increasing(4) Engineering responses to sea level rise (NRC Report)


Examples of subsidence due to ground fluid extraction

Examples of Subsidence Due to Ground Fluid Extraction


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