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PRECIS Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies The Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system. A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines by Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK 8 April 2003. Outline.

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A presentation to the unfccc workshop on

PRECISProviding REgional Climates for Impact StudiesThe Hadley Centre regional climate modelling system

A presentation to the UNFCCC workshop on

non-Annex 1 national communication preparation guidelines

by

Richard Jones, Met Office Hadley Centre, UK

8 April 2003


Outline

Outline

  • Background: Motivation and PRECIS overview

  • PRECIS components and their application

  • Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS

  • Applying PRECIS in impacts assessment

  • Limitations of PRECIS and future developments


Motivation

Motivation

  • UNFCCC requirement to assess national vulnerability and plans for adaptation

  • UNFCCC requirement to submit National Communications

  • Both need estimate of impacts

  • Impacts need detailed scenarios of future climate

  • Scenarios are best produced locally, using expert knowledge and increasing ownership


Predicting impacts

Predicting impacts


Who is precis for

Who is PRECIS for?

  • Government scientists from less developed countries involved in vulnerability and adaptation studies

  • A regional model’s domain usually encompasses several countries, so it is hoped that neighbouring countries will collaborate to produce ensembles

  • It is hoped to draw on local resources, such as expertise in local climate


Who funds precis

Who funds PRECIS?


How fast does it go

How fast does it go?

Hardware requirements

  • PC running under the Linux operating system

  • Memory : 512MB minimum; 768MB recommended

  • Minimum 60GB disk space + offline storage for archiving data

  • Simulation speed proportional to chip speed

  • T3E (supercomputer)- 1.5 months (36 Processors)

  • PC (Intel P4 2.8 GHz) - 4.5 months

30 year integration, 100x100 grid points


Precis pc system components

PRECIS: PC system components

Domain

Scenario

Period

Diagnostics

Run PRECIS


Precis components full list

PRECIS components: full list

  • User-interface to set up RCM experiments

  • The latest Hadley Centre RCM

  • Data-processing and graphics software

  • Boundary conditions from latest Hadley Centre GCM

  • Training course and materials

  • PRECIS website and helpdesk


What is a regional climate model

What is a Regional Climate Model?

  • Comprehensive physical high resolution climate model that covers a limited area of the globe, usually including the atmosphere and land surface components of the climate system, and containing representations of the important processes within the climate system (e.g., cloud, radiation, rainfall, soil hydrology).


A presentation to the unfccc workshop on

Regional Climate Models (RCMs)

Limited area models driven at the boundaries by GCM observed boundary data.

Resolution of 50km


Boundary conditions

Boundary conditions

  • Requests through

    • PRECIS website

    • helpdesk


Training course and supporting material

Training course and supporting material

  • Training in the use of PRECIS will focus on:

    • Background science including uncertainties

    • Interpretation of PRECIS results by regional experts

    • Construction of regional climate change scenarios

    • Building capacity in countries/regions using PRECIS

  • PRECIS will be supplied with:

    • a workbook covering the background science, system description and the uses and limitations of PRECIS

    • a technical manual explaining technical details about the system and how install and to use it


Support and follow up

Support and follow-up

  • Helpdesk

    • email, phone

    • web-based discussion

  • Website

    • news

    • updates

    • datasets

    • resources

  • Collaboration/workshops


A presentation to the unfccc workshop on

Applications of RCMs

  • Regional detail when simulating current climate

  • Realistic detail in climate change predictions

  • Resolution of islands, smaller countries e.g. Italy

  • Realistic simulation of extreme events

  • Provides comprehensive data for impact models


Winter precipitation over britian observed and simulated with rcm and gcm

WINTER PRECIPITATION OVER BRITIANObserved, and simulated with RCM and GCM


Simulation of a tropical cyclone in the precis regional climate model

SIMULATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONEin the PRECIS regional climate model

Global climate model Regional climate model


Winter daily rainfall over the sw cape south africa

WINTER DAILY RAINFALL OVER THE SW CAPE, SOUTH AFRICA

SW Cape winter rainfall: Observed - red, GCM - green, RCM - blue

<0.1 0.1-5 5-20 20-30 30-40 >40

mm/day


Changes in monsoon precipitation between the present day and the middle of the 21st century

CHANGES IN MONSOON PRECIPITATIONbetween the present day and the middle of the 21st century

Global climate model Regional climate model


Summer temperatures in the 2080s compared to the present day due to a2 emissions

SUMMER TEMPERATURES in the 2080scompared to the present day, due to A2 emissions

Global climate model Regional climate model

Climate on islands changes very differently to the surrounding Mediterranean Sea, and can only be predicted using an RCM


Future climate scenarios available from precis

Future climate scenarios available from PRECIS

  • PRECIS can provide:

    • climate scenarios for any region

    • an estimate of uncertainty due different emissions

    • an estimate of uncertainty due to climate variability

  • Data available from PRECIS

    • comprehensive for atmosphere and land-surface

    • grid-scale box average quantities

    • maximum time resolution one hour


Co2 emissions profiles under ipcc sres scenarios

CO2 EMISSIONS PROFILESunder IPCC SRES scenarios

Source:

IPCC


A presentation to the unfccc workshop on

GLOBAL TEMPERATURE RISE

due to four SRES emissions scenarios


Applying precis in impacts assessments

Applying PRECIS in impacts assessments

  • Obtain current state from impacts model via:

    a) observed data e.g. as used in model validation

    b) RCM control data

  • Obtain future state from impacts model using:

    • RCM climate changes (in means, variability, etc) applied to observed data (compare with a)

    • RCM future climate data directly (compare with b)


Bay of bengal cyclone simulated by the precis regional climate model

BAY OF BENGAL CYCLONEsimulated by the PRECIS regional climate model

Resulting storm surge simulated using the Proudman Oceanographic Laboratory model


Change in annual surface runoff between today and the 2080s for a2 emissions

CHANGE IN ANNUAL SURFACE RUNOFFbetween today and the 2080s, for A2 emissions

Southampton University hydrological model


Current limitations of precis

Current limitations of PRECIS

  • 10 year simulations take a month or more

  • It is a model hence imperfect, i.e. uncertainty due to use of only one RCM is not captured

  • Uncertainty due to imperfect driving data (i.e. from only one GCM) is not captured

  • Resolution of 50km or 25km insufficient for some impacts applications

  • Coastal or marine impacts have to be inferred (e.g. storm surges)


Precis treatment of uncertainties

PRECIS: treatment of uncertainties

  • PRECIS accounts for uncertainties due to:

    • Future emissions - uses 4 SRES scenarios

    • Natural variability - uses initial condition ensembles

  • PRECIS does not account for uncertainties due to:

    • The conversion of emissions to concentrations - carbon cycle or chemistry (except sulphur cycle) not represented

    • Uncertainty in the response of the climate system - only boundary conditions from 1 GCM are used

    • Uncertainty in the detailed climate change - only one RCM is used


Change in s asia summer rainfall with predicted by nine gcms a2 emissions

CHANGE IN S ASIA SUMMER RAINFALL with PREDICTED BY NINE GCMs (A2 emissions)

A2 emissions scenario


A presentation to the unfccc workshop on

% CHANGE INWINTERPRECIPITATION


Representation of the philippines with different model resolutions

REPRESENTATION OF THE PHILIPPINESWITH DIFFERENT MODEL RESOLUTIONS

25km RCM resolution 50km RCM resolution GCM 300km resolution


Future developments

FUTURE DEVELOPMENTS

  • Continuously upgraded to new processors

  • Ability to run PRECIS RCM from different GCMs

    • at least two to be added this year

    • relevant cooperation from GCM centres being sought

  • Intercomparisons of all RCMs being organised

    • No plans for PRECIS to incorporate other RCMs

  • Resolution of model being improved to 10km

  • RCM with ocean component being built


Final remarks

Final remarks

  • You can contact us via:

    • Email: [email protected]

    • Tel: +44 1344 856885

    • Fax: +44 1344 854898

  • Web-site for information on PRECIS

    • www.hadleycentre.com/models/PRECIS.html


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