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Outline OPC overview Impact Warnings and Features Hurricane Force Winds

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The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz – NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joan Von Ahn – STG/NESDIS ORA. Outline OPC overview Impact Warnings and Features Hurricane Force Winds SST impacts on near surface winds Summary and Recommendations.

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Presentation Transcript
slide1

The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz – NOAA Ocean Prediction CenterJoan Von Ahn – STG/NESDIS ORA

  • Outline
  • OPC overview
  • Impact
    • Warnings and Features
  • Hurricane Force Winds
  • SST impacts on near surface winds
  • Summary and Recommendations
opc responsibility
OPC Responsibility

Wind Warning Categories

GALE – 34-47 knots Force 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knots Force 10/11

HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12

warning impact
Warning Impact

Interpreted

forecaster

comments

Forecaster input only

Additional

training

Timelines

added

Forecaster

query

Percent Change in Short-Term Warning Decisions by OPC

slide7

Changes topositionofsurface features

Changes to Warning Category

Changes to Wind Speed

Changes to Wind Field

Changes to position of surface features

Changes to Warning Category

Changes to Wind Field

Changes to Wind Speed

Winter 2004 (Feb 15 to Mar 15)When QuikSCAT was available, changes were made to:68 % of the events in the Atlantic 50% of the events in the PacificEvent- Lows, Highs and Wind areas (speed and aerial extent)

Atlantic

Pacific

hurricane force winds

(a) (b)

Hurricane Force Winds

QuikSCAT able to distinguish between STORM and HURRICANE FORCE winds

slide9

APL China – Oct 1998

OOCL America

M/V Explorer

hurricane force cyclones what have we learned
Hurricane Force Cyclones…What have we learned?
  • Winter events – October through March (April)
  • Most frequent – Atlantic (January); Pacific (December)
  • Minimum SLP (avg. 965 to 970 hPa)
  • Minimum SLP - larger range in Atlantic
  • Explosive deepeners
  • Western portion of basins (most frequent); preferred tracks
  • Short lived (less than 24 hours) (avg. lifecycle 5 days)
  • Shallow warm core seclusion
  • Wind max S to SW of low
  • Most difficult to forecast at day 4 forecast time over North Pacific
      • Less than 10 % forecast 4 days in advance!!

Number of HF Cyclones observed

composite of maximum winds knots

X

L

X

L

Pacific

Atlantic

Composite of maximum winds (knots)

HF FORCE

STORM

GALE

Pacific (11 cyclones) Atlantic (5 cyclones)

Composite of QuikSCAT winds for 11 North Pacific and 5 North Atlantic HF storms. This plot shows the

distribution of maximum winds as observed by QuikSCAT for all cyclones in the composite. HF winds are

Red, Storm -Yellow and Gale –Green.

slide13

12.5 km QuikSCAT 3-day GOES SST Composite

25 km QuikSCAT Wind speed difference

(GFS 10m-QuikSCAT)

slide14

GFS 10 WInds 12.5 km QuikSCAT

Bias corrected 10m Winds Wind speed difference (knots)

(GFS 10m-QuikSCAT)

slide15

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 9950 Sigma

30 day avg. diff

11/05/04

Model Winds - QSCAT

Very Unstable PBL

975-skin < -4

slide16

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 1st Sigma

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 1st Sigma

30 day avg. diff

Model Winds - QSCAT

Very Stable PBL

975-skin > 4

sst impacts on wind field
SST impacts on Wind Field

Due to QuikSCAT

OPC forecasters are more conscious of underlying SST on

near surface winds

(always knew an impact but forecasters can now see it)

Forecaster tools

model soundings

stability indices

mix of 1st sigma and 10m winds

wind speed difference fields

slide19

12.5 km QuikSCAT SSM/I Wind Speeds

25 km QuikSCAT SSM/I Rain Rate

slide20

12.5 km QuikSCAT QuikSCAT Ambiguities

25 km QuikSCAT SSM/I Rain Rate

There are times when our forecasters do

not know what to believe!

summary impact significant
SummaryImpact - Significant
  • Cultural change to ocean analysis and forecasting within OPC
    • 10 % Wind Warnings determined by QuikSCAT
    • Assessment of features more accurate
    • Ability to assess initial numerical model conditions
    • Can differentiate between significant and extreme winds Storm versus Hurricane Force
    • Significance of PBL stability on near surface winds
    • QuikSCAT winds have changed the way we do business
    • Precip Quandry
      • At times just do not know impact on wind retrievals
recommendations for future instruments
Recommendations(for future instruments)
  • Large swath width
  • Independent rain measurement
  • Ability to quantify impact of rain
  • Large retrievable wind range (0 to Hurricane Force)
  • 12.5 km resolution or better
  • Reduced land mask (less than 30 km)
  • Minimum 4 looks per day per ocean (from operational platforms)
  • Data access near-real time (1 to 1.5 hour delivery after acquisition…no more)
  • Available in forecaster workstations in comprehensive form
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