The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 22

Outline OPC overview Impact Warnings and Features Hurricane Force Winds PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 94 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz – NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joan Von Ahn – STG/NESDIS ORA. Outline OPC overview Impact Warnings and Features Hurricane Force Winds SST impacts on near surface winds Summary and Recommendations.

Download Presentation

Outline OPC overview Impact Warnings and Features Hurricane Force Winds

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

The Operational Impact of QuikSCAT Winds at the NOAA Ocean Prediction Center Joe Sienkiewicz – NOAA Ocean Prediction CenterJoan Von Ahn – STG/NESDIS ORA

  • Outline

  • OPC overview

  • Impact

    • Warnings and Features

  • Hurricane Force Winds

  • SST impacts on near surface winds

  • Summary and Recommendations


Opc responsibility

OPC Responsibility

Wind Warning Categories

GALE – 34-47 knotsForce 8/9

STORM – 48-63 knotsForce 10/11

HURRICANE FORCE - 64 knots and greater Force 12


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

Wind speed (knots)


Warning impact

Warning Impact

Interpreted

forecaster

comments

Forecaster input only

Additional

training

Timelines

added

Forecaster

query

Percent Change in Short-Term Warning Decisions by OPC


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

Changes topositionofsurface features

Changes to Warning Category

Changes to Wind Speed

Changes to Wind Field

Changes to position of surface features

Changes to Warning Category

Changes to Wind Field

Changes to Wind Speed

Winter 2004 (Feb 15 to Mar 15)When QuikSCAT was available, changes were made to:68 % of the events in the Atlantic 50% of the events in the PacificEvent- Lows, Highs and Wind areas (speed and aerial extent)

Atlantic

Pacific


Hurricane force winds

(a)(b)

Hurricane Force Winds

QuikSCAT able to distinguish between STORM and HURRICANE FORCE winds


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

APL China – Oct 1998

OOCL America

M/V Explorer


Hurricane force cyclones what have we learned

Hurricane Force Cyclones…What have we learned?

  • Winter events – October through March (April)

  • Most frequent – Atlantic (January); Pacific (December)

  • Minimum SLP (avg. 965 to 970 hPa)

  • Minimum SLP - larger range in Atlantic

  • Explosive deepeners

  • Western portion of basins (most frequent); preferred tracks

  • Short lived (less than 24 hours) (avg. lifecycle 5 days)

  • Shallow warm core seclusion

  • Wind max S to SW of low

  • Most difficult to forecast at day 4 forecast time over North Pacific

    • Less than 10 % forecast 4 days in advance!!

Number of HF Cyclones observed


Composite of maximum winds knots

X

L

X

L

Pacific

Atlantic

Composite of maximum winds (knots)

HF FORCE

STORM

GALE

Pacific (11 cyclones) Atlantic (5 cyclones)

Composite of QuikSCAT winds for 11 North Pacific and 5 North Atlantic HF storms. This plot shows the

distribution of maximum winds as observed by QuikSCAT for all cyclones in the composite. HF winds are

Red, Storm -Yellow and Gale –Green.


Sst impacts on near surface winds

SST Impacts on Near Surface Winds


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

12.5 km QuikSCAT3-day GOES SST Composite

25 km QuikSCATWind speed difference

(GFS 10m-QuikSCAT)


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

GFS 10 WInds12.5 km QuikSCAT

Bias corrected 10m Winds Wind speed difference (knots)

(GFS 10m-QuikSCAT)


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 9950 Sigma

30 day avg. diff

11/05/04

Model Winds - QSCAT

Very Unstable PBL

975-skin < -4


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 1st Sigma

Eta 10m GFS 10m

GFS 1st Sigma

30 day avg. diff

Model Winds - QSCAT

Very Stable PBL

975-skin > 4


Sst impacts on wind field

SST impacts on Wind Field

Due to QuikSCAT

OPC forecasters are more conscious of underlying SST on

near surface winds

(always knew an impact but forecasters can now see it)

Forecaster tools

model soundings

stability indices

mix of 1st sigma and 10m winds

wind speed difference fields


Quikscat rain quandry january 4 2005

QuikSCAT Rain QuandryJanuary 4, 2005


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

12.5 km QuikSCATSSM/I Wind Speeds

25 km QuikSCAT SSM/I Rain Rate


Outline opc overview impact warnings and features hurricane force winds

12.5 km QuikSCATQuikSCAT Ambiguities

25 km QuikSCAT SSM/I Rain Rate

There are times when our forecasters do

not know what to believe!


Summary impact significant

SummaryImpact - Significant

  • Cultural change to ocean analysis and forecasting within OPC

    • 10 % Wind Warnings determined by QuikSCAT

    • Assessment of features more accurate

    • Ability to assess initial numerical model conditions

    • Can differentiate between significant and extreme windsStorm versus Hurricane Force

    • Significance of PBL stability on near surface winds

    • QuikSCAT winds have changed the way we do business

    • Precip Quandry

      • At times just do not know impact on wind retrievals


Recommendations for future instruments

Recommendations(for future instruments)

  • Large swath width

  • Independent rain measurement

  • Ability to quantify impact of rain

  • Large retrievable wind range (0 to Hurricane Force)

  • 12.5 km resolution or better

  • Reduced land mask (less than 30 km)

  • Minimum 4 looks per day per ocean (from operational platforms)

  • Data access near-real time (1 to 1.5 hour delivery after acquisition…no more)

  • Available in forecaster workstations in comprehensive form


  • Login