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Conference German-Italian Cooperation for the Development of Renewable Energies in the Mediterranean DESERTEC EU-MENA Cooperation for Clean Energies from Deserts. Gerhard Knies The Club of Rome and TREC, Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation [email protected]

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ConferenceGerman-Italian Cooperation for the Development of Renewable Energies in the Mediterranean DESERTEC EU-MENA Cooperation for Clean Energies from Deserts

Gerhard Knies

The Club of Rome and TREC,

Trans-Mediterranean Renewable Energy Cooperation

[email protected]

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


The trec founding document september 2003
The TREC Founding Document September 2003

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


[1] Names of persons involved:Khalid Benhamou, Saharawind , Morocco; Dr. Abdelaziz Bennouna,

Centre Nationale de la Recherche, Morocco ; Hans-Jörg Brügmann, Dipl.-Ing., Germany;

Gregor Czisch, Dipl.-Phys., ISET, Germany; Hans-Josef Fell, Member of Parliament, Gerrmany;

Dr.-Ing. Manfred Fischedick, Wuppertal Institut, Germany; Dr. Armin Haas, Potsdam Institute

for Climate Impact Research, Global Change & Social Systems, PIK, Germany;

Dr.-Ing. Michael F. Jischa, German Association The Club of Rome, Germany;

Dr. Malek Kabariti, National Energy Research Center, Jordan; Dr. Gerhard Knies, Hamburg Climate

Protection Foundation HKF, Germany; Harry Lehmann, Dipl.-Phys., ISUSI, Institute for Sustainable

Solutions, Germany; Klaus-Peter Lehmann, Dipl.-Ing., elexyr, Germany; Dr. Paul Metz, European

Business Council for a Sustainable Energy, e5, Netherlands; Dr. Axel Michaelowa, HWWA,

Germany; Uwe Möller, German Association The Club of Rome, Germany;

Dr.-Ing. Hani El Nokraschy, Germany/Egypt; Honorat Satoguina Dipl. EBA, Benin;

Dr. Christian-D. Schönwiese, University of Frankfurt, Germany; Dr.-Ing. Franz Trieb, DLR, Germany.

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Why good neighbourhood
Why „Good Neighbourhood?“

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown on Wednesday 19 March 2008 said

competition for energy is "one of the biggest potential drivers of the breakdown of the rules-based international system and the re-emergence of major inter-state conflict, as well as increasing regional tensions and instability."

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19



3 “CSP” studies

Mediterranean Potentials

Trans-Mediterranean Interconnection

Sea Water Desalination -www.desertec.org-

Final Reports (2005,2006, 2007)

by

German Aerospace Center (DLR)

Institute of Technical Thermodynamics

Section Systems Analysis and Technology Assessment

Studies commissioned by

Federal Ministry for the Environment, Nature Conservation and Nuclear SafetyGermany

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


DESERTEC ConceptforEU-MENA

Inter-regional cooperationinsteadofconflicts

CoR

White Paper

2007

  • Sun-belt + technology belt

  • synergies

  • interconnection

  • technology, energy, water and food cooperation

deserts + technology for energy, water, food and climate security

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


White Paper of

The Club of Rome

Presentation to

European Parliament

towards an Apollo-Program

EU-MENA DESERTECfor Energy, Water and Climate Security

28-11-2007

Gert Pöttering

Presid. Europ.

Parliament

Prince Hassan

available at www.desertec.org

Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona


Studies on potentials of renewable energies in EU-MENA

Initiated by TREC, performed by DLR, financed by German gov’t, www.desertec.org

(1)

Biomass

(Typical Yield in GWhel/km²/y)

(1)

Geothermal Energy

Wind Energy

(50)

890

Hydropower

(50)

Economic

Potential TWhel/y.

750

Solar - CSP, PV

(250)

1700

+ off shore

1090

> 600 000

demand  7 500 TWh/y EU+MENA 2050

 50 000 TWh/y world-wide 2050

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


Solar s team generator for power plants the linear fresnel collector easy to produce to mount
Solar steamgeneratorfor power plants: the Linear Fresnel Collector easy toproduce + tomount


Clean power from deserts for the world
Clean Power from Deserts for the World

WORLD

EU-25

MENA

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


40

times

higher

How Does a Sustainable Mix

„Transition Mix“

Look Like?

Economic Renewable Electricity Potentials and Demands in EUMENA

> 630000

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Evolution of capacities during transition to sustainable mix

firm capacities ( ) ≥ peak load + 25%;

Min. FIRM CAPACITY

PEAK LOAD

 firm capacity = peak load + plus 25 % reserve capacity

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


Power demand and sustainable supply scenario from 2000  2050 (TWh/y) in MENA and EU

transition mix 2000-2050

in MENA,

including export to Europe and

power for desalination

6 timesmore

in EU-25, and

17% import from MENA

By clean power from deserts EU may gain 10-15 years in the fight against climate change.

Thanks to energy efficiency and renewable energies nuclear energy can be phased out completely, and

gas and coal largely.

Gerhard Knies, EMPA commttee, 2008


Resulting eumena wide decarbonization compatible with climate goal d t 2
Resulting EUMENA-wide decarbonization compatible with climate goal DT<2°

- 81%

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Figure 4: Water demand scenario for MENA until 2050 and coverage of demand by sustainable sources, by unsustainable sources and by solar desalination. (shaded: efficiency gains with respect to business as usual)

Better efficiency

Solar desalination

Ground water (over-)pumping

Waste water re-use

1 NILE

2.5 NILEs

Fresh water

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


EU-MENA food+power symbiosis: coverage of demand by sustainable sources, by unsustainable sources and by solar desalination. (shaded: efficiency gains with respect to business as usual)

Clean power export for virtual water import

Water scarcity:

red : physical scarcity

brown: economic scarcity

blue: little or no scarcity

Food insecurity:

Striped countries have to

import >10% of cereals

import

food

(virtualwater)

export clean power

Mediterranean

Partnership

for

Energy & Food Security

Source:

International Water Management Institute IWMI,

January 2000, http://iwmi.org

Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona


Transmission lines for cost and environmental impact assessment
Transmission Lines for Cost and Environmental Impact Assessment

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Main parameters of a clean power from deserts to EU supply system:

CSP plants and HVDC super-grid

power generation + transmission costs.

CSP capacities from 2020 – 2050 according to the TRANS-CSP scenario. In 2050, 20 lines with a capacity of 5 GW each will transmit about 700 TWh/y of electricity from 20 different locations in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to the main centres of demand in Europe.

generation

transmission


Power cost evolution
Power Cost Evolution system:

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Power system:Cost Development

Solar power from deserts can limit power cost escalation in Germany

Gerhard Knies, EMPA commttee, 2008


Clean power from deserts for the world 3000 km
Clean Power from Deserts for the World! system:3000 km

world electricity demand of 18,000 TWh/y (in 2005)

 300 x 300 km²

=0.23% of all deserts

In 2050: ~50,000 TWh/y

 500 x 500 km²

More than 90% of world pop could be served

by clean power from deserts (DESERTEC) !

Gerhard Knies, Taipei e-parl. + WFC 2008-03-1/2


Forum system:

1000 Solar Gigawatt

  • Forum

  • 10 000 Solar Gigawatt

  • AtHanover Industrial Fair,

  • 23.-24. April 2008, Germany

  • Topics:

  • CSP Technology

  • DESERTEC:

    • 10 000 Solar Gigawatt

    • fromdeserts - how?

  • more: www.desertec.org

.

Gerhard Knies, CSP 2008 Barcelona


Desertec summary
DESERTEC system: SUMMARY:

  • Deserts, with solar-thermal and wind power plants and with HVDC transmission grids, can supply clean power to over 90% of world population.

  • Up to 2050 the world’s power system can be largely decarbonized (DT < 2°) with the help of clean power from global deserts.

  • 2050: EU-MENA region with 1.5 bn people:

    • Example for the global problem and how it can be solved

    • Collectors for 1,500 Solar Gigawatts and 600 GW power capacity

    • Power&water supply can be secured by “powerhouse desert”

  • 2050: MENA supply to EU:

    • Union for the Mediterranean - the political facilitator for DESERTEC ?

    • Solar: 100 GW and 700 TWh/y (17% of expected EU-consumption)

    • Investments: CSP=350 bn Euro, HVDC=45 bn Euro

    • Wind : 120 GW and 360 TWh/y generation (coarse guess)

    • Investments: 100 bn Euro, HVDC=30 bn Euro (coarse guess)

  • Cost of clean energy system ~ 1% of climate change damage

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19



Table 2 12 investment cost of power technologies including decommissioning discounted over lifetime
Table 2‑12: Investment cost of power technologies system: including decommissioning discounted over lifetime

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Table 2‑13: Development of the electricity cost of new plants of different power technologies in the example of Spain on the basis of the investment cost development in Table 2‑12 and the different performance indicators representing each technology in each country following the TRANS-CSP scenario until 2050. From 2030 onwards, biomass, geothermal and CSP plants subsequently take over peaking duties, which is the reason for their cost elevation.

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


Table 2 14 technologies and range of required revenues in the different electricity market segments
Table 2‑14: Technologies and range of required revenues in the different electricity market segments

Gerhard Knies, Berlin 2007-11-19


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