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Chapters 8, 9, 10. Exchange Risk Exposures

Chapters 8, 9, 10. Exchange Risk Exposures. 3 Types of exposures Transactions exposures ~ $ (HC) value of a FC contractual amount (e.g., A/R, A/P denominated in a FC) changes Economic (Operational) Exposure ~ firm’s competitive position affected

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Chapters 8, 9, 10. Exchange Risk Exposures

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  1. Chapters 8, 9, 10. Exchange Risk Exposures • 3 Types of exposures • Transactions exposures ~ $ (HC) value of a FC contractual amount (e.g., A/R, A/P denominated in a FC) changes • Economic (Operational) Exposure ~ firm’s competitive position affected • Translation (Accounting) Exposure ~ arises when a MNC consolidated financial statements of its foreign operations (subsidiaries and affiliates)

  2. Management of Transaction Exposure 8 Chapter Eight Chapter Objective: This chapter discusses various methods available for the management of transaction exposure facing multinational firms. 8-1

  3. Chapter Outline Forward Market Hedge Money Market Hedge Options Market Hedge Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure Hedging Contingent Exposure Hedging Recurrent Exposure with Swap Contracts 8-2

  4. Chapter Outline (continued) Hedging Through Invoice Currency Hedging via Lead and Lag Exposure Netting Should the Firm Hedge? What Risk Management Products do Firms Use? 3 8-3

  5. Forward Market Hedge If you are going to owe foreign currency in the future, agree to buy the foreign currency now by entering into long position in a forward contract. If you are going to receive foreign currency in the future, agree to sell the foreign currency now by entering into short position in a forward contract. 8-4

  6. FMH: an Example You are a U.S. importer of Italian shoes and have just ordered next year’s inventory. Payment of €100M is due in one year. Question: How can you fix the cash outflow in dollars? Answer: One way is to put yourself in a position that delivers €100M in one year—a long forward contract on the euro. 8-5

  7. FMH The red line shows the payoff of the hedged payable. Note that gains on one position are offset by losses on the other position. In short, insurance on your car => a portfolio of car and insurance Long forward $30 m Hedged payable $0 Value of €1 in $ in one year $1.20/€ $1.50/€ $1.80/€ –$30 m Unhedged payable 8-6

  8. Futures Market(=FMH) Cross-Currency Hedge Your firm is a U.K.-based exporter (£ HC) of bicycles. You have sold €750,000 worth of bicycles to an Italian retailer. Payment (in euro) is due in six months. Your firm wants to hedge the receivable into pounds. Sizes of forward contracts are shown. 8-7

  9. €750,000 6 contracts = €125,000/contract Futures Market Cross-Currency Hedge: Step One • You have to convert the €750,000 receivable first into dollars and then into pounds. • If we sell the €750,000 receivable forward at the six-month forward rate of $1.50/€ we can do this with a SHORT position in 6 six-month euro futures contracts. 8-8

  10. $1.50 $1,125,000 = €750,000 × €1 £562,500 9 contracts = £62,500/contract Futures Market Cross-Currency Hedge: Step Two • Selling the €750,000 forward at the six-month forward rate of $1.50/€ generates $1,125,000: • At the six-month forward exchange rate of $2/£, $1,125,000 will buy £562,500. • We can secure this trade with a LONG position in 9 six-month pound futures contracts: 8-9

  11. Money Market Hedge (using a bank) This is the same idea as covered interest arbitrage. 1) To hedge a foreign currency A/P, buy the PV of that foreign currency amount today and make a FC deposit (=investment) today so that you can withdraw A/P when due. Buy the PV of the foreign currency payable today. Invest that amount at the foreign interest rate. At maturity your investment will have grown enough to cover your foreign currency payable. 8-10

  12. MMH (A/P denominated in a FC) A U.S.–based importer of Italian bicycles In one year owes €100,000 to an Italian supplier. The spot exchange rate is $1.50 = €1.00 The one-year interest rate in Italy is i€ = 4% Can hedge this payable by buying today and investing €96,153.85 at 4% in Italy for one year. At maturity, he will have €100,000 = €96,153.85 × (1.04) €100,000 €96,153.85 = 1.04 $1.50 Dollar cost today = $144,230.77 = €96,153.85 × € 8-11

  13. MMH (FC A/P), cont’d With this money market hedge, we have redenominated a one-year €100,000 payable into a $144,230.77 payable due today. If the U.S. interest rate is i$ = 3% we could borrow the $144,230.77 today and owe in one year €100,000 $148,557.69 = So× × (1+ i$)T (1+ i€)T $148,557.69 = $144,230.77 × (1.03) 8-12

  14. MMH (FC A/R) 1. Calculate the PV of £y receivable at i£ £y $x = S($/£)× 3. Exchange for (1+ i£)T £y (1+ i£)T £y (1+ i£)T 2. Borrow the PV of the FC receivable => this is your money! 4. If interested, determine the FV of $x by $x(1 + i$)T. 8-13

  15. Options Market Hedge Options provide a flexible hedge against the downside, while preserving the upside potential. To hedge a FC payable, buy calls on the currency. If the currency appreciates, your call option lets you buy the currency at the already given low exercise price of the call. To hedge a FC receivable, buy puts on the currency. If the currency depreciates, your put option lets you sell the currency for the already given high exercise price. 8-14

  16. Options Markets Hedge IMPORTERS who OWE foreign currency in the future should BUY CALL OPTIONS. If the price of the currency goes up, his call will lock in an upper limit (ceiling) on the dollar cost of his imports. If the price of the currency goes down, he will have the option to buy the foreign currency at a lower market price. EXPORTERS with accounts receivable denominated in foreign currency should BUY PUT OPTIONS. If the price of the currency goes down, puts will lock in a lower limit (floor) on the dollar value of his exports. If the price of the currency goes up, he will have the option to sell the foreign currency at a higher market price. With an exercise price denominated in local currency 8-15

  17. Hedging Exports with Put Options Show the portfolio payoff of an exporter who is owed £1 million in one year. The current one-year forward rate is £1 = $2. Instead of entering into a short forward contract, he buys a put option written on £1 million with a maturity of one year and a strike price of £1 = $2. The cost of this option is $0.05 per pound. 8-16

  18. $1,950,000 Hedged receivable –$50k –$50k Long put $2.05 Options Market Hedge: Exporter buys a put option to protect the dollar value of his receivable. S($/£)360 $2 Long receivable –$2m 17 8-17

  19. Hedged receivable –$50k $2.05 The exporter who buys a put option to protect the dollar value of his receivable has essentially purchased a call. S($/£)360 $2 18 8-18

  20. Hedging Imports with Call Options Show the portfolio payoff of an importer who owes £1 million in one year. The current one-year forward rate is £1 = $1.80; but instead of entering into a long forward contract, He buys a call option written on £1 million with an expiry of one year and a strike of £1 = $1.80 The cost of this option is $0.08 per pound. 8-19

  21. Forward Market Hedge: GAIN (TOTAL) Importer buys £1m forward. Long currency forward This forward hedge fixes the dollar value of the payable at $1.80m. S($/£)360 $1.80 Accounts Payable = Short Currency position LOSS (TOTAL) 20 8-20

  22. $1,720,000 Call –$80k $1.72 $1.88 Options Market Hedge: Importer buys call option on £1m. $1.8m Call option limits the potential cost of servicing the payable. S($/£)360 $1.80 Unhedged obligation 21 8-21

  23. $1,720,000 –$80k $1.72 Our importer who buys a call to protect himself from increases in the value of the pound creates a synthetic put option on the pound. He makes money if the pound falls in value. S($/£)360 $1.80 The cost of this “insurance policy” is $80,000 22 8-22

  24. Taking it to the Next Level Suppose our importer can absorb “small” amounts of exchange rate risk, but his competitive position will suffer with big movements in the exchange rate. (Large) dollar depreciation (=FC appreciation) increases the $ cost of his imports (Large) dollar appreciation (=FC depreciation) increases the foreign currency cost of his competitors exports, and reduce $ cost of his imports. 8-23

  25. Our Importer Buys a Second Call Option $1,720,000 2ndCall –$80k –$160k $1.88 $1.64 $1.96 $1.72 This position is called a straddle $1,640,000 S($/£)360 Importers synthetic put $1.80 24 8-24

  26. $1,720,000 Sell 2 puts $1.90 strike. butterfly spread –$80k $1.90 buy a put $2 strike $1.72 $2 Suppose instead that our importer is willing to risk large exchange rate changes but wants to profit from small changes in the exchange rate, he could lay on a butterfly spread. S($/£)360 Importers synthetic put $1.80 A butterfly spread is analogous to an interest rate collar; indeed it’s sometimes called a zero-cost collar. Selling the 2 puts comes close to offsetting the cost of buying the other 2 puts. 25 8-25

  27. Options A motivated financial engineer can create almost any risk-return profile that a company might wish to consider. Straddles and butterfly spreads are quite common. 26 8-26

  28. Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure The major currencies are the: U.S. dollar, Canadian dollar, British pound, Euro, Swiss franc, Mexican peso, and Japanese yen. Everything else is a minor currency, like the Thai bhat. It is difficult, expensive, or impossible to use financial contracts to hedge exposure to minor currencies. 8-27

  29. Cross-Hedging Minor Currency Exposure Cross-Hedging involves hedging a position in one assetby taking a position in another asset. The effectiveness of cross-hedging depends upon how well the assets are correlated. An example would be a U.S. importer with liabilities (A/P) in British pounds hedging with long (or short) forward contracts on the euro. If the pound is expensive when the euro is expensive (or if the pound is cheap when the euro is expensive) it can be a good hedge. But they need to co-vary in a predictable way. 8-28

  30. Hedging Contingent Exposure If only certain contingencies give rise to exposure, then options can be effective insurance. The realization of the exposure depends on a future event. For example, if your firm is bidding on a hydroelectric dam project in Canada, you will need to hedge the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate only if your bid wins the contract. Your firm can hedge this contingent risk with options. 8-29

  31. Hedging Recurrent Exposure with Swaps Recall that swap contracts can be viewed as a portfolio of forward contracts. Firms that have recurrent exposure can very likely hedge their exchange risk at a lower cost with swaps than with a program of hedging each exposure as it comes along. It is also the case that swaps are available in longer-terms than futures and forwards. 8-30

  32. Contingent Exposure, cont’d • What if the bid wins: • Unhedged - risk • FH/MMH – no risk • Put Options – If So < K => Exercise, Let it expire otherwise • If the bid does not win: • Unhedged – no risk • FH/MMH – risk, Why? Binding contracts! • Put Options – If So < K => No FC cash flows from the project, yet you can make money by BLSH!, Let it expire otherwise

  33. Hedging through Invoice Currency The firm can shift, share, or diversify: shift exchange rate risk by invoicing foreign sales in home currency share exchange rate risk by pro-rating the currency of the invoice between foreign and home currencies diversify exchange rate risk by using a market basket index 8-32

  34. Hedging via Lead and Lag If the FC is appreciating, pay those bills denominated in that currency early; let customers in that country pay late as long as they are paying in that currency. If the FC is depreciating, give incentives to customers who owe you in that currency to pay early; pay your obligations denominated in that currency as late as your contracts will allow. 8-33

  35. Exposure Netting A multinational firm should not consider deals in isolation, but should focus on hedging the firm in a portfolio of currency context. As an example, consider a U.S.-based multinational with Korean won receivables and Japanese yen payables. Since the won and the yen tend to move in similar directions against the U.S. dollar, the firm can just wait until these accounts come due and just buy yen with won. => A/R and A/P need to communicate! Even if it’s not a perfect hedge, it may be too expensive or impractical to hedge each currency separately. E.g., Lufthansa in 1984 signed a contract to buy $3 billion worth of aircraft from BA and entered into a forward contract to buy $1.5 billion forward. Not necessary! 8-34

  36. Exposure Netting • Many multinational firms use a reinvoice center. Which is a financial subsidiary that nets out the intrafirm transactions. • Only the residual exposure determined needs to be hedged. 8-35

  37. Exposure Netting: an Example Consider a U.S. MNC with three subsidiaries and the following foreign exchange transactions: $20 $30 $40 $10 $35 $10 $30 $40 $25 $60 $20 $30 36 8-36

  38. Exposure Netting: an Example Bilateral Netting would reduce the number of foreign exchange transactions by half: $20 $10 $30 $15 $20 $25 $35 $10 $30 $10 $40 $20 $10 $30 $20 $30 $40 $40 $10 $10 $35 $10 $30 $40 $25 $25 $60 $60 $20 $30 37 8-37

  39. Multilateral Netting: an Example Consider simplifying the bilateral netting with multilateral netting: $10 $15 $40 $40 $30 $40 $15 $15 $15 $10 $10 $10 $10 $10 $20 $15 $25 $10 $10 8-38

  40. Should the Firm Hedge? Not everyone agrees that a firm should hedge: Hedging by the firm may not add to shareholder wealth if the shareholders can manage exposure themselves. Hedging may not reduce the non-diversifiable risk of the firm. Therefore shareholders who hold a diversified portfolio are not helped when management hedges. 8-39

  41. Should the Firm Hedge? In the presence of market imperfections, the firm should hedge. Information Asymmetry The managers may have better information than the shareholders. Differential Transactions Costs The firm may be able to hedge at better prices than the shareholders. Default Costs Hedging may reduce the probability of default. 8-40

  42. Should the Firm Hedge? Taxes can be a large market imperfection. Corporations that face progressive tax rates may find that they pay less in taxes if they can manage earnings by hedging than if they have “boom and bust” cycles in their earnings stream. 8-41

  43. What Risk Management Products do Firms Use? Most U.S. firms meet their exchange risk management needs with forward, swap, and options contracts. The greater the degree of international involvement, the greater the firm’s use of foreign exchange risk management. 8-42

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