1 / 36

CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis

CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis. Baghdad June 2009. Summary. Achievements of transition Overarching trends Development challenges Key areas of concern Human rights, justice and security Economic development and inclusive growth Human development Governance Development gaps

rhoda
Download Presentation

CCA/UNDAF Preliminary Analysis

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. CCA/UNDAFPreliminary Analysis Baghdad June 2009

  2. Summary Achievements of transition Overarching trends Development challenges Key areas of concern • Human rights, justice and security • Economic development and inclusive growth • Human development • Governance Development gaps Top priorities Next steps

  3. Country in transition: security & political improvement • Security incidents fell by 90% Aug 2007 - Apr 2009; Casualties down • People’s perception of security improved. 80% of Iraqis report improvement; • The political process consolidates: Regained sovereignty; successful elections in 2009; people’s trust in the state increasing 6,000 100 percentage 90 84 5,000 No deaths / incidents 80 70 62 61 4,000 60 49 43 3,000 50 39 40 2,000 30 Source: Security: UNAMI-SSI, Returns: UNHCR (April 2009) 20 1,000 10 0 Aug 2007 Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2008 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan 2009 Feb Mar Apr May Total Incidents Positive Security perception (%) Casualties Confidence in National Government (%)

  4. Country in transition: reintegration 8,000 50000 • Return of displaced population increased; no major new displacement. • Between 60-80% of IDPs would like to return to their homes (IOM, HCR) 7,000 30000 6,000 Yearly totals No. of families 10000 5,000 0 2007 2008 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Security Incidents 0 Monthly Average 2007 Monthly Average S1 2008 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr Source: Security: UNAMI-SSI, Returns: UNHCR (April 2009) Security Incidents Yearly totals Refugee returns IDP returns

  5. Country in transition: socio-economic improvements • Improved macro-economic stability • Economic growth • Contained inflation • Human development indicators have shown improvement • Improved food security • Food insecurity down from 15 to 3% (WFP/COSIT 05, 07) • Prevalence of wasting in children U5 down since 1990s (9% in 05 to 4.7% in 07) • Improved schooling • Overall increase in enrolment • Gap between male & female education achievements narrowed • Primary school enrolment continues to climb (87% in 07-8, MOE) and now passed 5m pupils. • Antenatal care is relatively high 87% of pregnancies / ~80% of births are attended by skilled personnel (IFHS)

  6. Country in transition However, the situation remains fragile and reversible

  7. Overarching trends • Bigger, fast growing and younger population: 31 million, 43% under 15 yrs • Iraq’s natural resources & ecological support system in decline • Higher dependency on highly unstable international oil market • Growth in public sector: • public sector jobs created instead of developing private sector; • focus on subsidies at the expense of service delivery

  8. Key challenges to Iraq’s transition • Consolidate peace • Ensure political participation & strengthen state-citizen relationship • Address limitations to women’s participation in public life • Sustain improvement in security • Strengthen rule of law • ensure protection of basic rights • Strengthen economic performance • improve management of resources, • stimulate private sector, generate economic opportunities, particularly for women & young people • Enable env’t for return and reintegration of IDPs and refugees • Improve access to and quality of basic services, esp. for the most vulnerable. • Address regional disparities & improve rural standard of living.

  9. Key areas for Iraq’s future development • Human rights, security and justice • Economic development • Human development • Governance

  10. 1. Human Rights, Security & Justice • Human rights a major concern. Women particularly at risk. • Civilian casualties still high and security institutions(esp. police) need strengthening Key message: Continued improvements in human rights, security and justice are needed for national reconciliation, peace, and development

  11. Landmines and UXOs: Iraq’s heavily contaminated More than 3000 suspected mined areas identified by UN in the 3 Northern Govts. Large areas with Sub-munitions, UXO and Abandon munitions contamination Large border areas with landmine and UXO contamination N

  12. 2. Economy Dev’t & Inclusive Growth • Economic performance affected by dominant public sector (44% full-time employment), weak private sector, underperforming & under-skilled labour force. • Cultural Resources underdeveloped despite high potential (e.g. Tourism sector – archeological and heritage sites) • Young people & women left out (25% of men aged 20-24 yrs unemployed and 18% of women participate in Labour Force) • 23% of the population under the poverty line, high regional disparities, rural population twice as poor (IHSES).

  13. Youth • Unemployment Rate (%) by Age Groups (Concentration among young) 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 and more 2008 unemployment rate 2006 unemployment rate

  14. Gender Men (age 15-64yr) Women (age 15-64yr) Full Time (36% of LF) Part Time (45% of LF) Unemployed (19% of LF) Economically Inactive (25% 15-64yr) Full Time (65% of LF) Unemployed (14% of LF) Economically Inactive (82% 15-64yr) Part Time (21% of LF)

  15. Economic Dev’t: Energy, Rural dev’t & Environment • Electricity unreliable (daily average of public supply 7.9 hrs; 22% of population rely on public network - IHSES) • Weak linkages between on and off-farm incomes in the rural economy due to lack of value chains (e.g. weak, small agro-industry). • Weak management of natural resources and pressure on natural environment strain economic development, esp. rural, including agriculture.

  16. Affected CropLand / Total_CropLand 46% - 56% 31% - 45% 26% - 30% 6% - 25% 4% - 5% Environment and rural development 39% of all cropland suffered from drought in both 08-09 Source: FAO, IAU (2009) Areas affected by drought in both 2008 and 2009

  17. Key message Despite improved macro-economic stability, Iraq’s economy remains oil dependent, with a weak private sector and job market and with few opportunities for the poor

  18. Human Development: Indices 2008 National Report on The Status of Human Development 2008: • HDI: 0.623 • GDI: 0.584 • HPI: 18.800 • GEM: 0.696

  19. 3. Human Development: Education • Iraq’s capacity to nurture the skills of next generation is weak • High gender disparities, e.g. illiteracy esp. among rural women (55% rural women aged 15-24 illiterate, MICS3) • 40% of students go from primary to secondary school (MOE). • Poor quality and overcrowding: one in three schools operating double shift (MOE) • 28% of 17 yr-olds sat final high school exams (MOE 2007) • 40% pass rate in South and Centre

  20. Human development: Health • Iraq ‘s health status has waned due to consecutive wars, violence and inadequate public/reproductive health strategies. • Life expectancy at birth = 65yr (1987) / 58yr (2006) • Infant mortality rate = 30 per 1,000 live births (1984-89) / 35 per 1,000 (2006) • Poor mental health, particularly among women (Any mental disorder: Men (8.8%) / Women (13.5%. IMHS) • Poor measles immunisation: 65% coverage (MICS3) • Other sectors, such as HIV, also have key issues.

  21. Human development: Water & sanitation • 82% HHs outside Baghdad and KRG have no waste collection (IHSES) • Lack of access to safe and reliable water and sanitation • One in 7 children have diahorrea at any one time (MICS3)

  22. Essential Services: the public water network • Network infrastructure exists but is in a state of disrepair; 19 % Are not connected to the general water network 24 % Suffer from more than one interruption a day Source: Iraq Household Socio-Economic Survey (2007) – COSIT/World Bank 13 % Suffer from more than one interruption a week 44 % Suffer from less than One interruption a week

  23. Human development: social protection • Social protection exists but not protecting the most vulnerable • 45% of jobs covered by social insurance; • 1 in 9 children 5-14 years work, higher in rural areas, and these children are less likely to participate in school - MICS3 • PDS provides great proportion of food consumed and improves food security amongst the poorest • prevalence of hunger low at 7% • But, irregularity leaves poor highly vulnerable (Diyala 51% hunger in 2007 when PDS not delivered due to violence).

  24. Human development: housing and shelter 4 key issues to poor housing & growing demand: • Population growth rates • Levels of overcrowding; • Poor housing conditions and access to basic services; • Ongoing issues of internally displaced persons;

  25. Key message: human development Access to quality services is a key priority and requires strong further improvement; it is central for peace and to re-build the legitimacy of the government

  26. 4. Governance • Perception of state legitimacy, accountability, and effectiveness improving, but still weak, partly because of slow improvement with services and economic opportunities • Public sector reform urgent but needs to be gradual to avoid destabilisation given high dependence on state jobs & subsidies. • Budget allocations is key issue • Weak independent media, environmental and cultural resource management needs urgent attention.

  27. Budget Allocation: Investment Gap 2008 Actual expenditure shares (% of total budget) 35 % 30 % 25 % 20 % 15 % 10.3 6.3 6.3 10 % 5.2 5 % 0.6 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0 0 0 % Public Activity Other Kurdistan Interior Defence Electricity Oil Justice Agriculture Health Education Subsidies. Pensions, War rep Local Administration Security Energy Investment Gap Total (Op.&Inv.) Expenditures Projects Investment

  28. Service Delivery Perceptions • Fuel and Electricity seen improvement in people’s perception due to private and public investment • Service delivery on water, health and education less improvement (reflecting lack of investment) 100 % 90 % 80 % 70 % 60 % 50 % 40 % 30 % 20 % Source: ABC Polls (Aug 2007 / Mar 2009) 10 % 0 % Water Medical Care Local Schools Fuel Electricity Aug 2007 Mar 2009

  29. Key message Improving governance, management of public resources, capacity to deliver services and generating public debate are critical to consolidate peace.

  30. Development Gaps • Human capacity • Strategy to address poverty • Governance capacity

  31. Top priorities • Prioritise & sequence interventions with high transformative, stabilisation, and peace dividend potential • Address regional and governorate disparities • Address poverty and unemployment through rural development • Urgent need to focus on women, youth and children

  32. Next Steps • Identification of Thematic Areas and Working Groups • Amman Workshop (incl. training on causal analysis) • Causal Analysis conducted by Thematic Working Groups culminating on Thematic analysis summarizing their results • Drafting of CCA

More Related