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Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter

Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter. Texas Education Agency April 8, 2010. Sources of Growth. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2008. Natural Increase in Texas (Births minus Deaths).

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Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter

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  1. Texas Demography: Change, Projections, and English Learners Lloyd Potter Texas Education Agency April 8, 2010

  2. Sources of Growth

  3. Fastest Growing States, 2000-2008

  4. Total Population and Components of Population Change in Texas, 1950-2008

  5. Natural Increase in Texas(Births minus Deaths) • Birth Rate: 16.8 per 1,000 vs. 14.0 for US (2ndhighest) • Death Rate: 6.8 per 1,000 vs. 8.3 for US (5thlowest) • Natural Increase: 10.0 per 1,000 vs. 5.7 for US (3rd highest) • Texas is young: • Median Age: 33.2 vs. 36.8 for US (2ndlowest) • Texas has a high total fertility rate (Children per woman) • 2.34 vs. 2.05 for US (4th highest) Source: NCHS Vital Statistics Data, 2005http://wonder.cdc.gov/

  6. Population Change by Components of Changein the State, 1990-2000 and 2000-2008

  7. Annual Net Migration to Texas, 2000 to 2008 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census 2008 Estimates

  8. Population Growth in Texas, 2000-2040 Year Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

  9. Changes in Age Structure

  10. Age-Sex Structure of Texas, 2008 andProjected 2040 (Scenario 2000-2007) Sources: Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates; Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections

  11. Texas Population by Age, 2000 & 2008 Population Age Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates

  12. Texas Children by Age, 2000 and 2008 Population Age Sources: Census Bureau 2000 Population Counts; Census Bureau 2008 Population Estimates

  13. Changes in Ethnic Composition

  14. Ethnicity & Immigrant Status-State of Texas, 2007 Sources: U.S. Bureau of the Census, 2007 American Community Survey Microdata File

  15. % of Growth Due to Each Ethnicity in Texas, 1980-1990, 1990-2000, 2000-2007, and 2000-2040 Source: U.S. Census Counts, and Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections, 0.5 Scenario

  16. Projected Percent of Net Change Attributable to Each Race/Ethnicity Group for 2000-2040*

  17. Projected Ethnic Change in theState of Texas, 2000-2040 Source: Texas State Data Center 2008 Population Projections , 0.5 Migration Scenario

  18. Changes in Geographic Distribution

  19. Projected population by county, Texas, 2040 Texas State Data Center, vintage 2008 population projections. Migration scenario 2 (2000-2007).

  20. English Learners

  21. Educational Attainment in 2000 in Texas for Persons 25+ Years of Age By Race/Ethnicity Percent

  22. Percent of the population 5 and over who speak English less than well by state, 2008 Source: American Community Survey, 2008

  23. Percent of persons aged 5 and older, who do not speak English well, that speak Spanish at home by state, 2008 Source: American Community Survey, 2008

  24. Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a language other than English at home, by county, 2006-2008 Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008

  25. Percent of Texas children 5-17 who speak a English less than well, by county, 2006-2008 Source: American Community Survey, 3 year file 2006-2008

  26. Major Points • Continued growth of Texas population • Growth driven by both natural increase and in-migration (internal and international) • Aging of the population with growing base • Continued growth of Hispanic population relative to other ethnic/racial groups • Increased concentration of population in major urbanized areas • Large numbers of English learning students in major urban areas and in border urban areas

  27. Texas State Data Center Lloyd B. Potter, Ph.D., M.P.H University of Texas at San Antonio 210-458-6530 Lloyd.Potter@utsa.edu

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