The GERD Therapeutics Market is Forecast to Show Decline Until 2016
GlobalData’s analysis suggests that the global GERD market was worth $ 21.5 billion in 2009. It is forecast to decline at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 9% for the next seven years to reach $11.7 billion by 2016. The high projected rate of decline is primarily attributable to the patent expiries of all proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) by the end of the forecast period. Increase in the treatment seeking population, the diagnosis population and long term anti-reflux maintenance therapy are expected to sustain the GERD market.
GERD Market has Strong Competition Between the Several Marketed Products
GlobalData analyzed the current competitive landscape for GERD drugs and found the competition to be strong. There are several marketed products for the symptomatic relief of GERD, which include antacids, H2 receptor antagonists, and PPIs. All treatments are based on attempts to decrease gastric acid production; neutralize gastric acidity; facilitate gastric emptying; restore lower esophageal sphincter function and decrease the frequency of transient lower esophageal sphincter relaxations (TLESRs). Monotherapy regimens and combination therapies have satisfactory efficacy and safety profiles. However, patent expiries of the major prescribed PPIs during the forecast period have raised concerns, meaning that the GERD market will become increasingly genericized. New entrants into the market will be forced to match or exceed the efficacy and safety profiles of the currently marketed products.
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Weak Clinical Pipeline with Several Me-too Molecules
GlobalData analyzed the GERD pipeline and found it to be weak. The pipeline for GERD consists of more than 45 molecules currently in development for various disease segments. Approximately 43% of the GERD pipeline consists of me-too molecules.
In Phase III alone, there are 10 me-too molecules and seven product extensions including H+/K+ ATPase inhibitors and H2 receptor antagonists. These products are expected to be approved for use in infants and children. Phase II products with novel mechanisms of action seem to be more promising in targeting areas such as relieving nighttime symptoms, achlorhydria (absent acid secretion), providing symptomatic relief to GERD patients inadequately responding to PPIs and importantly, addressing the cause of the disease. A weak clinical pipeline coupled with low unmet needs in the GERD market is expected to negatively impact the market’s growth rate during the forecast period.
A Market with Low Unmet Need
GlobalData has found that the global GERD market is a not a lucrative market, with low levels of unmet need. The market is well served with several monotherapies and combination therapies which target patients with different disease characteristics. The efficacy and safety profiles of these products improved over the years. Although the therapies significantly improve efficacy, long-term maintenance is the key to therapy. Therefore, the GERD market has low levels of unmet need that can be fulfilled by products that target underserved patient populations and offer improved safety and efficacy profiles.
GlobalData, the industry analysis specialist, has released a new report, “Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease - Drug Pipeline Analysis and Market Forecasts to 2016”. The report is an essential source of information and analysis on the global Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) market. The report identifies the key trends shaping and driving the global GERD market. The report also provides insight into the prevalent competitive landscape and the emerging players expected to cause significant shifts in the positioning of the existing market leaders. Most importantly, the report provides valuable insight into the pipeline products within the global GERD sector.
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