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SLT Informational Briefing

SLT Informational Briefing. for San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) Product Lead – Darren Wright Project Lead – Machuan Peng August 14, 2012. Project Goals. This project will develop and implement the San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS)

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SLT Informational Briefing

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  1. SLT Informational Briefing for San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) Product Lead – Darren Wright Project Lead – Machuan Peng August 14, 2012

  2. ProjectGoals • This project will develop and implement the San Francisco Bay Operational Forecast System (SFBOFS) • Develop and test SFBOFS on NOAA’S HPC-COMF. • Implement and evaluate the nowcast and forecast system in development mode. • Develop and complete graphic products and SFBOFS web pages. • Compare the forecast results against observation and complete nowcast/forecast skill assessment report. • Work with NCEP and CSDL to transition SFBOFS to operations.

  3. Technical Approach • FVCOM (Finite Volume Coastal Ocean Model) will be employed to make forecast for water level, 3-D velocity, temperature, salinity in San Francisco Bay area. • Installation of SFBOFS on COMF (Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework) on NOAA CCS to ensure model’s robust performance. • Develop technical documentation describing OFS operation and maintenance.

  4. Technical Approach Major Features • Three dimensional unstructured grid • Wetting and drying module (new) • 81065x15380 nodes • Vertical sigma coordinate system • 20 vertical layers • 4 cycles/day

  5. Long-term goals • Provide accurate and reliable operational forecast system in San Francisco Bay region and improve NOS’ OFS performance in shallow water. • The completion of this project will potentially pave the way for future bio-physical, ecosystem operational forecast in shallow waters.

  6. Benefits CO-OPS has new OFS to support PORTS products • SFBOFS is expected to provide reliable forecast of sea level, water temperature, salinity and velocity in San Francisco Bay region. Stakeholders will benefit from this forecast system • US Coast Guard, Navy, harbor pilots, professional and recreational mariners (safe navigation). • SFBOFS provides necessary forecast results to EPA, USGS and academia. • The forecast also gives valuable info to NOAA Office of Response and Restoration for oil spill and other disaster mitigations. This OFS could serve as foundation for other efforts within NOS and CO-OPS • Tri-office project • America’s Cup • Transit Time application • Eco-forecasting

  7. Major Timelines • CSDL deliver SFBOFS code to CO-OPS 12/12 • SFBOFS testing on CCS 01/13 • Web development 02/13 • Complete nowcast/forecast skill assessment 03/13 • Pseudo-production implementation 04/13 • Initial code delivery to NCO 05/13 • NCO parallel testing 08/13 • Production implementation 09/13 • Complete SFBOFS SOP 10/13

  8. Resources SFBOFS is estimated at 15 months: labor hour is estimated at 2487 OD and 334 for ISD OD • OD/Project Lead • OD/Technical Lead • OD/Oceanographer (Testing, web product development) ISD • Graphics product development • Unix system administrator • Stuff Note: another 11 labor hours go to communication plan

  9. Risk Assessment & Mitigation • Technical Risks • FVCOM instability for shallow water • Work with FVCOM developers • SFBOFS in quasi-operational model in support of America’s Cup • Will run on NCEP development server under CO-OPS account • Schedule Risks • NCEP moratorium • Work with CSDL before moratorium is lifted • Resource Risks • Only three employees in modeling group • More people if possible

  10. Communication Plan • As the 34th America’s Cup will occur in San Francisco Bay from July 4 to September 21, 2013, the rollout of this project seems very meaningful and timely. During the event, SFBOFS cannot be run in operational mode according to the project’s schedule. However, we will attempt to provide the sailors and event organizers pseudo-production forecast guidance on surface wind, current, water temperature and other variables by running the model in quasi-operations mode. Meanwhile project outreach will be conducted for potential NOAA and non-NOAA users. Talks and posters will be presented in scientific conferences as the project moves forward. Brief meeting with communication specialist of CO-OPS has been done recently and more detailed outreach plan will be approved soon.

  11. Questions & Discussion

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