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Recession ? … Depression ?... & A Bright Spot. Abdul Wahab Teffaha Secretary General - Arab Air Carriers Organization. International Conference on Air Transport, Law & Regulation: Challenges for the MEA, Abu Dhabi 14-16 April 2009. Overview.

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Abdul Wahab Teffaha Secretary General - Arab Air Carriers Organization

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Recession ? … Depression ?... &

A Bright Spot

Abdul Wahab Teffaha

Secretary General - Arab Air Carriers Organization

International Conference on Air Transport, Law & Regulation: Challenges for the MEA, Abu Dhabi 14-16 April 2009


Overview

  • In spite of a global crisis, Arab Aviation continues its growth

  • Air Transport is STILL a strategic asset .. Especially as an economic catalyst

  • Effects of the crisis on Arab Aviation

  • An Aero-political gridlock .. almost!


In spite of a global crisis, Arab Aviation continues its growth


AACOMembers and Industry RPKs and ASKs growth

Asian Financial Crisis

SARS

9/11 Attack

Global Recession

Gulf War 1

Gulf War 2

Source: AACO


Air Transport is STILL a strategic asset .. Especially as an economic catalyst


Passenger Numbers in Arab Airports and Growth

Source: AACO, ACI


Top Five Growing Arab Airports

Source: AACO, ACI


Arab Air Transport Market

Size and Distribution of Traffic

75.6 Million Pax

85.7 Million Pax

102.6 Million Pax

113.7 Million Pax

Source: AACO, ACI, IATA


Effects of the crisis on Arab Aviation


IATA Industry Forecast

Source: IATA, EIU


AACO Members RPKs Forecast

5% Lower

+4% over 2008

16% Lower

Source: AACO


Arab World and Industry GDP and RPKs Growth

Source: AACO, IATA, IMF


AACO Members Traffic Share on Inter-Regional Routes

Source: AACO


An Aero-political gridlock .. almost!


An Aero-political gridlock .. almost!

  • Two Arab liberalization agreements ..not really implemented: the main driving force for liberalization is national agendas

  • National economic agendas vary depending on economic attributes .. Hence there is no predominant model that applies regionally

  • Privatization & Liberalization of ownership also depend on national economic attributes

Regional approach can only be achieved through creating a critical mass of like minded countries or .. By external affiliation


Conclusion


Conclusion

  • In spite of the bright spot .. The long term future of growth depends on structural aero-political change

  • Liberalization & Privatization will become priorities but not uniformly

  • Air transport will continue to be an engine for economic growth


Thank you


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