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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal. Electricity Demand Side Management in Residential Sector of Kathmandu Valley Sujan Adhikari Prof Amrit Man Nakarmi Institute of Engineering Pulchowk Campus ,Lalitpur, Nepal. International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal.

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International conference on tim 2012 nepal

International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Electricity Demand Side Management

in

Residential Sector of Kathmandu Valley

SujanAdhikari

Prof Amrit Man Nakarmi

Institute of Engineering

Pulchowk Campus ,Lalitpur, Nepal


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

ResearchObjectives

  • Determine the current electricity consumption pattern of residential sector of Kathmandu Valley.

  • Forecast the electricity demand of residential sector Kathmandu Valley.

  • To propose suitable Demand Side Management strategies.


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Electricity consumption pattern

  • 13% of energy consumed in Nepal is through commercial source (WECS,2010)

  • 48% of population have access to electricity of which 8% of people reside in rural areas (MOF,2007)

  • Increasing residential consumer base

  • Decreasing per capita electricity consumption

(Source: NEA Annual Report, 2011; CBS Preliminary Survey, 2011)


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Concept of Demand Side Management

  • Demand Side Management

    Demand side management (DSM) also known as Energy demand managementis the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods.

  • Alternative to supply side “overspending” in energy systems (NILSSON, 2007).


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Residential Sector

  • In context of Nepal, residential accounts for the major share of energy consumption (89.1%) (Wecs, 2010).

  • 44% of the total electricity consumption in Nepal is in residential sector


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Kathmandu Valley

  • Limitations

    • Urban areas of Kathmandu Valley.

    • Municipal boundaries of Kathmandu Valley considered as the urban limits.

  • Electricity consumption characteristics

    • 29.2% of total electricity distributed by the Nepal Electricity Authority is consumed in Kathmandu Valley alone. (NRB,2012)

    • Kathmandu municipalities alone constitutes about 36% of the total urban households (CBS,2011)


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Methodology

  • Questionnaire Design

  • Sample Design

  • Household Survey

  • Analysis and conclusion


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Questionnaire Design

  • Household Characteristics

  • Variables

    • Number of Appliance

    • Operating hour of the Appliance

    • Rating of the appliance


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Regression Result

  • Average electricity consumption was regressed with the household characteristics

R2= 0.765

Therefore the regression equation is

E= -61.28+0.002 MI + 8.811FS+21.9 NC+6.85R


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Sample Design

  • Size of the sample, n

    2*N*(1-P)

    ME2(N-1) + ( 2*P*(1-P))

    Source: Source: Morgan et all.1970

     Where

    n = required sample size

    2 = Chi square for the specified confidence level at 1 degree of freedom

    N = Population size

    ME = Desired Marginal error (expressed as a proportion)


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Household Survey

Household sample surveys have become a key source of data on social phenomena in the last 60-70 years


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

LEAP Modelling Framework

  • Modeling Conditions

  • The base year for the model was 2012 and horizon of 18years was used, thus modeling until 2030.

  • Discount rate used in model was 12%.


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

LEAP Modelling Framework

Projection

  • Household projection

    Y=119519*exp (0.6025*x) where x is the number of year.

  • Household income

  • Appliance ownership

    • Energy ladder hypothesis

    • Regression between household income and appliance number

    • Result showing R2 value greater that 75% is considered


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Scenario Selection

  • Business As Usual (BAU) Scenario

    • 5.4% household income growth rate

  • Medium Income Growth (MG) scenario

    • 5.5 % national GDP growth rate

    • 8.7% household income growth rate

  • High Income Growth (HG) scenario

    • 7% national GDP growth rate

    • 11.1% household income growth rate

  • DSM Scenario


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Scenario Result

BAU-9.5%

MG-10.7%

HG- 11.6%


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

DSM Options

DSM Criteria

  • DSM 1

    • Replacement of all of the widely used incandescent lamps of rated power 40 W and 100 W to CFL of rated power 20W in the poorest households by the end of 2030.

    • Replacement of widely used 36 W fluorescent lights and 40 W and 100 W incandescent light in the above poorest households by LED lights of 13 W by the end of 2030.

  • DSM 2

    • Replacement of electrical water heater by solar water by the end of 2030.

  • DSM 3

    • All light will be replaced by solar powered LED lights.


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

DSM Result (Energy Savings)

  • Electricity consumption under DSM implementation scenario was compared with the MG scenario

  • DSM1

    • 7320.6 GWh of electricity savings by the end of modeling period.

  • DSM 2

    • 146.2 GWh of electricity savings by the end of modeling period.

  • DSM3

    • 7885 GWh of electricity can be saved across the modelling period.


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

DSM Results (Economic Analysis)

  • B/C Ratio

  • Discount rate of 12%

  • Benefit – NPV of avoided supply cost

  • Cost- NPV of programme cost

  • The B/C of the DSM1 programme was 5.09, 4.43, 7.61, 11.38 and 51.2 for poorest, second, third, fourth and richest class of households respectively

  • The B/C of the DSM2 programme was 0.51, 0.3, 0.5, 0.57 and 0.25 for poorest, second, third, fourth and richest class of households respectively

  • The B/C of the DSM3 programme was 1.3, 2.3, 3.9, 7.8 and 54.8 for poorest, second, third, fourth and richest class of households respectively


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Conclusion

  • Electricity consumption mostly depend on household income.

  • Second and Third is the highest electricity consuming category of households and continue in future on all scenarios

  • Implementation of effective DSM options would assist in managing Nepal’s electricity deficit.


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Recommendations

  • Government should consider the adverse effects of unchecked increasing electricity consumption trend and create separate DSM unit to ensure coordinated efforts for DSM projects implementation.

  • Major steps should be taken to establish robust database of energy consumption pattern of the region, management of available secondary information from various relevant authorities and carries out frequent customer perception survey and energy consumption pattern.

  • Detailed energy audit survey needed for very high end households with higher electricity consumption

  • Special attention has to be given to the no cost/low cost energy conservation measures such as use of daylight and other measures like energy labeling on electric cookers ,Refrigerators etc


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International Conference on TIM, 2012, Nepal

Thank You


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