On behalf of Scientific and Technical Committee of INPRO Joint Study Vladimir USANOV

1. Collaborative Project Proposal“Global Architecture of INS Based onThermal and Fast Reactors with the Inclusion of a Closed Nuclear Fuel Cycle (GAINS)” On behalf of Scientific and Technical Committee of INPRO Joint StudyVladimir USANOV Coordinator of the Joint Study, IAEA

2. Overall Objectives • To create a framework (a common methodology, assumptions and tools)for analysis a transition to a globalINS ‘TR-FR&CNFC’, capable to meet in a sustainable manner requirements of energy supply • To provide for decision making an overview of economic, technologicaland institutional incentives for realization of the architecture of the INS identified for established scenarios of nuclear growth • To define potential of joint R&D, sharing experimental base and infrastructure, unification of reactors and fuels, and other collaborative activitiesenhancing nuclear penetration to the energy market • To determine areas and tasks for more detailed elaboration in specificINPRO CPs or on multi/bilateral basis

3. Specific Research Objectives • To establish jointly a state of art in visualization of global nuclear future • To select scenarios for a worldwide/regional deployment of NP • To define asymptotic vision of INS for every country or group of countries • To select technological options, to develop variants of the INS architecture and calculate a half-century/century dynamic transition from existing state to an asymptotic one • To make conclusions on: - synergy between reactors, and countries/regions; - incentives, terms and conditions for introduction FR and SMR; - incentives for building the regional nuclear fuel cycle centres; - impact of innovations in technology, unification of systems, etc. for facilitating the nuclear market penetration; - compliance of the different options of nuclear architecture with energy demand and requirements of sustainability

4. JS: Identifying Scenarios • Promising market for INS CNFC-FR: 500-700 GW by 2050 • Different national expectations in nuclear electricity growth: from about ‘zero’ up to ‘as much as possible’ • Different level of the technology development: from experimental reactors up to pilot commercial NPPs and associated fuel cycle

5. Stage 1: Step 1.1 - Scenarios Architecture of growth or phase out?

6. Step 1.1: Scenarios (cont.) • B2, A2 SRES scenarios have appeared to be in compliance with JS MS expectations (500-700 GWe.y by 2050 for JS MS while globally ~ 2000 GWe.y by 2050) • Planning and Economic Studies Section (PESS) of IAEA in contact with the JS has carried out a study with detailed overview of strategies of NP growth for one developing region of the world and has received a valuable outcome • Plans for extending the approach for GAINS with involvement more regions of the world (~ 10 regions) • Continuation of the activities and enhancing cooperation of the IAEA with other competent energy agencies on development plausible global scenarios of nuclear growth would be very important for studies like GAINS

7. Step 1.1: Scenarios (cont.) Europe S. America North America India + China + Africa Global Integration & Feedback Global Nuclear Energy Development Scenario Individual Region NE Development Scenario India +

8. Step 1.2: Asymptotic-state objectives • While intending to meet Acceptance Limits (AL) of sustainability, MS have diverse national aspirations and focus in NP development: - assurance of nuclear fuel supply for fast energy growth; - assurance of very high quality of environment, including drastic reduction of reactor waste requiring repository disposal; - competitive NPP operation assured by services from global market; - cutting inventory of fissile materials for enhancing PR features. • An important activity will be identifying of asymptotic objectives in national nuclear strategies for the time span 50 years and more • Merging of national long run strategies will help to understand ability of the global system to provide national asymptotic objectives without breaching requirements of sustainability, and most likely compel not only to tune national approaches to global picture but to use to full extent potential of the multinational collaboration

9. Step 1.3: Selection of INS components The main task of the step is to select components of the INS to be used in the study and to determine roughly target years of their introduction into the system Proven: LWR, HWR, SFR in operation; UOX, MOX fuel; pellet fabrication; PUREX reprocessing; HLW glass matrix + Developed & Evolving: advanced LWR, HWR, SFR; UOX, MOX fuel; pellet & vibropaking fabrication; advanced PUREX & dry reprocessing; advanced HLW calcine and glass matrixes + Conceptual: advanced HTGR, LFR, LBFR, GFR, modular-type reactors; MOX, nitride, thorium & metallic fuels; pellet & vibropaking fabrication; advanced aqueous partitioning (TRUEX, UREX, THOREX, etc.) & dry partitioning systems; advanced and composite HLW calcine and glass matrixes; regional FC Centers covering all spectrum of services

10. National Approaches to Development of CNFC-FR

11. Step 2.1. The Choice of Transition Strategy • Designing of about 8-12 variants (options) of the INS architecture that provides smooth transition to sustainable energy supply for selected global scenarios • To examine potential of development of the INS basing on both expansion and transition opportunities: - expansion of once-through UOX option based on TR (OT-TR) without spent fuel reprocessing but with improved technical and economic characteristics of reactors and fuel; - expansionof one-recycling plutonium option with MOX fuel in TR; - OT-TR option withtransitionto multi-recycling plutonium option in FR (MR-FR) with mixed oxide and metal fuel; - OT-TR & MR-FR options with transition to U/Th and Pu/Th fuels; - OT-TR & MR-FR options with transition to MA management

12. Step 2.2: Development of Major Storylines To identify advantages of multinational collaboration, the scenarios for the INS deployment will be split into two storylines: • A heterogeneous world based on self-reliance and preservation of local identities. Nuclear services across regions converge very slowly • A convergent world with rapid changes toward a service collaboration, toward global solutions for economic, social, and environmental challenges. Building of the global and regional nuclear architecture, unification of reactor fleet, sharing infrastructure, arrangement of multinational/regional regional fuel cycle centres

13. Actinide Burning in CANDU Reactors B. Hyland, and G.R. Dyck, 2007 CANDU X Gen V Continuous Development Towards the Future CANDU SCWR Gen IV Evolution Innovation Advanced CANDU Reactor Gen III+ Product Continually enhance both the design and applications based on the CANDU concept Gen II CANDU6 Years from today

14. LWR Fast Reactor Cycle LWR Fuel Treatment for Fast Reactor Spent UO2/MOX Metal Fuel Fabrication Li Reduction or Electrochemical Reduction Reprocessing (PUREX) Salt/Metal Separation MOX Fast Reactor Waste U,Pu,MA Denitration/ Chlorination Electrorefining/ Reductive extraction HLLW Spent Metal fuel Pyrometallurgical Process Waste Treatment /Disposal High Active Waste Actinide Recycling System by Fast Reactor Integrated Oxide Fuel treatment and Recovery of Actinides in HLLW

15. Example of Principal Scheme of INS 100 GW(e)

16. Example of structure & balance flows in the INS with IFC (A. Zrodnikov, IPPE, Int. Conf. NSF management, 2006)

17. Step 2.3: Simulation • A very important and even crucial element of the study will be an account of the dynamics of the system from the current to a future sustainable energy mix • The experience gained in the JS, testify need in further development of unified tools for a dynamic simulation of global/regional transition strategies and continuation activities on benchmarking of the tools • A package based on the computer codes DESAE, MESSAGE, WISTA which are being disseminated by the Agency, could become an instrument for a dynamic simulation

18. Step 2.4: Analysis • Indicators of INS sustainability to be analysed: - balance of radionuclides in the system; - material flows with focus on fissile materials and radwaste; - economic indices (investments, electricity cost, financial risks); - safety characteristics, - health and environmental impact; - amount, decay heat and radiotoxicity of radwaste; - fissile materials inventory and flows, and other indices important for assessment of proliferation resistance and physical protection; - other parameters needed for assessment of the INS sustainability in accordance with INPRO methodology (in total more than a hundred indicators).

19. U-238 - 86,7% Coal - 8,7% U-235 - 0,4% Oil- 0,8% Relative energy potential of natural resources Gas- 3,4%

20. INPRO IN Env. 2.1.1: Quantity of Fissile Material • What if approach: 16 mln.t U, FR BR = 1.05 (LWR - blue, FR - brown) • The INSdoes not meetNP growth ofA2, B2 scenarios after 2050 • FR should be commissioned earlier and FR BR increased

21. Plutonium Balance – B2 Scenario 200 0 1900 2000 2020 2040 1900 2100 -1000 Pu-fiss= (product – Consumption) - t Pu-fiss= (product – Consumption) in -t x104 World China The consideration of plutonium balance at national and global level indicates a problem that could be addressed in the future.

22. 92 100 10 20 19 17 71 55 EPR EFR EPR EPR+20% EPR+30% EPR+ 20% Fuel Operation & Maintenance Investisment Economics Comparison with Established PWR • Higher capital cost for FBR (20 to 30 % higher for FBRs), however total cost is ~ 5 to 15 % higher for FBRs due to • Lower fuel cost for FBRs due to higher burn-up • O&M cost nearly the same Emphasis should be on capital cost reduction French Comparison

23. INNOVATIVE DESIGN FEATURES FOR FUTURE FBRS JAPAN

24. IN 1.2.1 Scope for Capital Cost Reduction: Russian Approach • Extensive R&D leading to: • Less steel consumption: less no of loops, less thickness for vessels and piping • Compact plant layout : less RCB and civil structures volume • Longer design life with higher capacity factor

25. Evolution of Specific Cost of Fast Reactors It is possible to decrease the projected specific cost of sodium fast reactors of rather high capacity ( > 500 MWe) to the level of established LWR

26. INPRO IN E 1.1.1. COST REDUCTION FOR FUTURE FBR: INDIA • 4x500 MWe FBR (Two twin units) • Elimination of main vessel (MV) cooling system, integrated control plug and small rotatable plug (Reduction in MV diameter by  560 mm) • In-Vessel purification system (no transport of radioactive primary coolant out of reactor assembly (RA)- improved safety) • Thick plate concept for top shield (reduction in height of each components supported on top shield and entire RA by ~1300 mm) • Change in material of construction (316 LN to 304 for cold pool components, including core shielding sub-assemblies)  • Reduced construction time (7 y to 5 y) • Enhanced design life 40 y to 60 y • UEC is reduced from 70 Mill to 40 Mill 1000 MWe FBRs Metallic fuel Ferritic steels for core UEC 30 Mill (series)

27. Problems of market penetration BN-800 (red),coal (green), CCPP nat. gas (yellow) 10% discount rate

28. INPRO IN W.4.2.3: Heat Removal Provisions • What if approach: Size of radwaste repository for OFC & CFC-FR • Decay heat and size of radwaste repository in case of transition to CNFC could be reduced up to 10 times

29. Conclusive Stage • To depict in Final Report (in “what if” manner) results of simulation of different variants of INS global architecture • To establish potential of the INS to fulfil asymptotic expectations (in 50 and more years) for the most countries of the world while meeting Acceptance Limits of sustainability • To identify ways and time constraints for updating of the INS architecture, including: - extension of INS by commissioning of FR, fabrication and reprocessing plants, etc.; - enhancing interconnections in the INS for realization of a potential of TR & FR synergism, as well as synergism of countries & regions; - introduction of new elements like Regional Fuel Centres. • To establish possible areas of joint R&D activities • To identify principle limitations of the INS to fulfil asymptotic expectations for some countries and present vision of future directions of the INS development

30. Expected Outputs • Providing for decision making a report of legal, economic, and technological incentives for realization of the jointly identified global architecture of INS based on TR & FR with the inclusion of CNFC • Identifications of innovations in technology, institutional issues, unification of the system, etc., facilitating the nuclear market penetration • Preliminary assessment of the number, capacities, location, and dynamics of deployment of the regional nuclear fuel cycle centres providing assurance of fuel services worldwide • Determination areas of bi- and multilateral cooperation and initiation of the daughter’s Collaborative Projects with a specific topics identified in course of GAINS implementation

31. Hope for your further participation and valuable contribution in organization and realization ofGAINS and linked CP Thank you

32. Canada Russia Ukraine China Korea India France Japan MS - Participants of the JS MS having more than half the world population and large users of energy in coming decades are participating in JS.

33. INS based on TR&FR with the inclusion of CNFC

34. An example of a flowsheet Mining Scope of GAINS Enrichment U Enriched U Depleted U Fuel Fuel Neutron Pu, MA fabrication fabrication Source Pu, U, MA Thermal Fast Pu Burner reactors reactors MA, I-129, Tc-99 Separation Reprocessing Reprocessing process Pu FP TRU Intermediate FP storage Final disposal

35. Initiation of GAINS • It was noted at the SC meetings in presentations on the INPRO Joint Study (JS) on assessment of INS CNFC-FR that the Study could become a base for more deep cooperation • At 10 SCM delegation of RF initiated CPP RUS-1 as a successor of the JS to make a step from an assessment of INS to developing conceptual basis of a Global Architecture of INSbased on thermal and fast reactors (TR&FR) with the inclusion of CNFC (GAINS) • At the meeting of the JS in France in February 2007 its participants at the level of specialists agreed to support CPP GAINS for joint development at the Phase 2 of INPRO Project

36. Geographical Scope

37. Organization • Innovative and unique multinational organizational structure has been established for JS to develop INS CNFC-FR National Level: • Main funding of the activities (national input, ~ 2 CM /year) • Formation of national teams • Representation in STC and selection of a Chairman IAEA: • INPRO management, INPRO International Coordinating Group • IAEA Experts • Linkage and exchange of information with relevant IAEA CRP & CPP and with other international studies (GNEP, GIF) • Financing from RB • The organizational structure has demonstrated fitness for purpose that’s why INPRO Joint Initiative (JI) seems to be a good option for the GAINS implementation

38. GAINS Study Schedule 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Initiation, development the concept of the study in response to INPRO SC#10 Selection of NP scenarios&theINS components Calculation of transition paths to sustainable INS Definition ways for enhancing market penetration. Report on identified global architecture Initiation of specific CPs linked with GAINS TODAY