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GHG Modeling Kickoff Meeting. September 21, 2007. Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies and Cap Options in the California Electricity Sector. Introductions. Snuller Price, Project Manager Dr. Ren Orans, Model Integration Dr. Jim Williams, E3 Lead Analyst

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Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

GHG Modeling Kickoff Meeting

September 21, 2007

Modeling of Greenhouse Gas Emissions Reduction Strategies and Cap Options in the California Electricity Sector


Introductions

Introductions

  • Snuller Price, Project Manager

  • Dr. Ren Orans, Model Integration

  • Dr. Jim Williams, E3 Lead Analyst

  • Amber Mahone, E3 Analyst

  • Steven Schiller, Schiller Consulting

  • Eric Toolson, PLEXOS Lead

  • Dr. Yihsu Chen, UC Merced (Advisor)


E3 projects in california

E3 Projects in California

  • CPUC Projects (contracting utility)

    • Avoided costs for energy efficiency (PG&E, SCE)

    • ‘E3 Calculator’ for cost-effectiveness of energy efficiency (PG&E, SCE)

    • Market Price Referent for the renewable portfolio standard

    • Cost-effectiveness of clean DG (SGIP) (PG&E)

    • Statewide potential for demand response (Sempra)

    • BC – California Renewable Energy Partnership (PG&E)

  • CEC Projects

    • 2005 and 2008 Title 24 building energy efficiency standards

    • Programmable Communicating Thermostat CASE study

    • Renewable Program, Guidebooks and SEPs calculation support

    • Renewable DG assessment

  • CAISO Projects

    • Sunrise transmission line

    • WECC RPS transmission study


Plexos solutions llc team

PLEXOS Solutions LLC Team

  • Eric Toolson

    • Project manager for CAISO’s TEAM demonstration and PVD2 transmission evaluation

    • 25+year of resource planning, SMUD Resource Planning Manager (‘89-’92)

  • Dr. Tao Guo

    • Principal algorithm developer for PROMOD (‘89 to ‘93) and PROSYM (’93 to ’05),

    • PhD in Power Systems Engineering

    • Recognized national expert in unit commitment and dispatch modeling

  • Dr. Wenxiong Huang

    • Principal developer for ProView, ProScreen (Strategist), ’92-’94

    • Product manager for MARKETSYM, RISKYM, MAINSYM (’94-’06)

    • Expert in areas of market price formation, stochastic portfolio evaluation, and maintenance optimization


Agenda

Agenda

  • Project Goals and Overview

  • Stakeholder Process and Timeline

  • Modeling Approach

  • Technical Plan

  • Key Issues and Agency Proceedings


Project overview

Project Overview


Two stage project approach

Two Stage Project Approach

  • Stage 1 (Now to End of November)

    • Develop data and methodology

    • Develop and test analysis tool

    • Focus on electricity sector-wide issues

    • Results feed into CPUC Interim Decision in Feb. ‘08

    • Results for CARB Integration Workshop in Mar.’08

  • Stage 2 (December – August 2008)

    • LSE-specific issues such as allocation

    • Cross-sector trading issues

    • More detail through topic-specific working groups


Stage 1 key questions

Stage 1 Key Questions

  • How much CO2 reduction can be expected in the electricity sector from different policy options?

  • How much will these policy options increase electricity rates for consumers?

  • Underlying CPUC question: At what electricity sector target level do incremental improvements get expensive?


Stage 2 key questions

Stage 2 Key Questions

  • What is the cost to California of complying with AB32 under different policy options for the electricity sector?

  • What is the cost to different LSEs and their customers of these options?

  • Underlying CPUC question: What option has the best combination of cost, fairness, and enforceability?


Project deliverables

Project Deliverables

  • Key Deliverables

    • Non-proprietary GHG Calculator

      • Unlimited “runs” to evaluate policy options

      • Agency staff and stakeholders can evaluate their own scenarios

    • PLEXOS production simulation

      • Validation of GHG calculator results with detailed model of California and the Western Interconnect

    • Stakeholder engagement and support

  • Timeline

    • Tied to AB32 timeline

    • Results feed into R.06-04-009 proposed decisions


Stylized view of the results

‘Stylized’ View of the Results


Modeling approach

Modeling Approach

  • Modified SSG-WI Database

    • Resources

    • Loads

    • Fuel Prices

  • Sector Targeted Policies

  • Technology Development

  • Fuel Prices

  • GHG Policies

Inputs

Inputs to Calculator

E3 GHG Calculator

PLEXOS for Power SystemsTM

New Resource Assessment

GHG Emissions

Capacity Costs

Energy Costs

GHG Costs

Rate impact Analysis

Average retail rate

Zonal Supply Curves for WECC

Loads

Prices

WECC-Wide Production Simulation Optimization

Zonal or Nodal

CA MRTU

Detailed Emissions Results

Calculation

Results for Validation

  • Production by zone

  • GHG Impacts

  • Production by zone

  • GHG Impacts

  • Rate Impacts

Outputs

CARB Macro-economic Model (EDRAM)

CARB Multi-Sector Model (ICF)


Key features

Key Features

  • Spreadsheet tool is designed to help users answer key questions, not just a report

    • Transparent, publicly available information

    • Will be made available to stakeholders

  • Model links expansion planning, GHG emissions and costs to consumers

  • Right level of detail to answer policy questions through 2020 and beyond

  • Expert team familiar with CPUC process, GHG policy, CAISO, and targeted options


Model scoping

Model Scoping

  • Years: 2008, 2020

  • Sectors: Electricity and Natural Gas

  • Scale: LSE, California, WECC

  • LSEs: 7 entities

    • PG&E, SCE, SDG&E

    • LADWP, SMUD

    • Northern CA other, Southern CA other


Joint cpuc cec ghg stakeholder process r 06 04 009

Joint CPUC/CEC GHG Stakeholder ProcessR.06-04-009


Process goals for ghg modeling

Process Goals for GHG Modeling

  • Transparency in model and input data

  • Open stakeholder process

  • Inform the CPUC Decisions in R.06-04-009


Ghg modeling and process

GHG Modeling and Process

  • Model results feed into R.06-04-009

  • Interim Decision expected ~ February 2008

  • CARB integration workshop ~ March 2008 to review sector targets

  • Decision expected ~ September 2008


Project timeline

CARB Integration Workshop

Project Timeline


Upcoming key dates tentative

Upcoming Key Dates (Tentative)

  • September 21st

    • Kick-off Meeting for GHG Modeling

  • October 24th

    • Public release of data and methodology summaries on E3 website

  • November 2nd

    • Public release of initial model and summary of results on E3 website

  • November 14th

    • CPUC workshop on initial model data, method, and results

  • November 30th, Mid-December

    • Post-workshop Comments and Reply Comments complete

http://www.ethree.com

Information and Results


Technical plan

Technical Plan


Technical plan in 8 steps

Re-evaluate Assumptions

with Stakeholder Process

Available Publicly so that stakeholders can review, and make their own runs

Technical Plan in 8 Steps

  • Step 1: Compile available public data

  • Step 2: Modify WECC data to create 2020 reference case

  • Step 3: Develop 2020 PLEXOS and aggregate by zone

  • Step 4: ‘Download’ PLEXOS dispatch in GHG Calculator

  • Step 5: Define scenarios using the ‘GHG Calculator’

  • Step 6: Run the GHG Calculator to evaluate scenarios

  • Step 7: ‘Upload’ GHG Calculator results to PLEXOS

  • Step 8: Deliver output of selected runs to CARB models


Step 1 compile available public data

Start with WECC 2008 & 2017 Reference Cases

Generation Resources

Loads

Fuel Prices

Public Data

Step 1: Compile Available Public Data


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

Step 2: Modify WECC data to create 2020 case

  • WECC reference cases may not reflect CPUC desired base case

    • Level of renewable investment

    • Level of energy efficiency investment

    • Known new plants coming online

    • Plant retirement schedules

  • Provide publicly the changes made to the reference cases


Step 3 develop 2020 case and aggregate results into zones

Step 3: Develop 2020 Case, and aggregate results into zones

  • Extend PLEXOS database to 2020

    • New resources

    • Transmission

    • Loads

  • Summarize results


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

Running PLEXOS with Reference Case

Flow of Execution

Relational

Input Database

Text Files

  • Scan the input database

  • Decide variables, constraints, and objective need to be used for each object

  • Dynamically construct and solve the LP/QP/MIP

  • Write solution data to one or more databases

  • Input and solutions viewed in PLEXOS interface

  • Creatable reports connect directly to solution databases

PLEXOS Engine

Compiler

Executive

Solver

(LP/QP/MIP)

SolutionDatabases

and

Text Files

PLEXOS

Report Writer

Reports


About plexos

About PLEXOS

  • PLEXOS 4.0 first released in 2000

  • Co-optimization architecture is based on the Ph.D. work of Glenn Drayton*

  • Advanced Mixed Integer Programming (MIP) is the core algorithm of the simulation and optimization

  • Foundation for the mathematical formulation of the New Zealand, Australia, and Singapore energy and spinning reserve markets

  • PLEXOS licensed in United States, Europe, Asia-Pacific, Russia, and Africa (17 countries, about 40 sites)

  • PLEXOS Solutions distributes and supports PLEXOS in the United States and Canada

    *G.R. Drayton. Coordinating Energy and Reserves in a Wholesale Electricity Market. University of Canterbury, New Zealand, 1997.


Plexos and california

PLEXOS and California

  • MRTU compliant

    • Integrated Forward Market

      • Co-Optimization of Ancillary Service and Energy

      • Locational Marginal Prices (LMP)

      • Ancillary Service Market Prices (ASMP)

    • Full Network Model

      • DC-OPF

      • WECC or CA focus

  • Used by CAISO

    • Competitive path assessment

    • MRTU LMP forecast

    • Transmission feasibility studies

  • Past studies done with PLEXOS reviewed by CPUC – TEAM, PVD2


Plexos and ghgs

PLEXOS and GHGs

  • Capable of modeling WECC at any level of detail from one zone to 15,000+ nodes

  • Extensive emission modeling capability

    • Automatic decomposition takes annual or quarterly emission constraints and breaks them down into daily limits for detailed short-term simulation

    • Operations-quality modeling of thermal units including all CC components, dead zones, chronological constraints, limited starts per week, multi-fuel, etc.

    • Accurate forecast of emission shadow prices

    • Emission rates can be expressed multi-point or exponential curves


Step 4 download plexos dispatch to ghg calculator

Step 4: ‘Download’ PLEXOS Dispatch to GHG Calculator

  • Zonal Supply Curves

  • Demand and Energy

  • Prices

Supply Curves by Zone in the WECC

Demand and Energy Forecasts


Step 5 define scenarios in ghg calculator

Step 5: Define scenarios in GHG Calculator

GHG Calculator ‘Dashboard’ for Setting the Scenarios to Evaluate


Rps supply curve example

RPS Supply Curve Example

Illustrative Example from CA ISO Sunrise Analysis

  • Based on publicly available data sources for generation and transmission options: CEC/PIER, CPUC, NPPC, DOE, CAISO, NTAC,WECC, utilities, developers, literature

  • Levelized costs of energy for California for RPS compliance

  • Other supply curves: energy efficiency, CHP, renewables, PV, clean DG, IGCC, carbon sequestration


Step 6 run the ghg calculator to evaluate scenarios

Step 6: Run the GHG Calculator to evaluate scenarios

  • GHG Calculator Calculates Two Modules

    • New Resource Assessment

    • Rates Impact Analysis


Evaluating rate impacts

Evaluating Rate Impacts

Retail Rate Forecast for CEC Title 24

  • A key aspect of evaluating GHG policy is in determining how costs of different policies flow through to consumers

  • Cost-of-service and revenue requirement calculations are an E3 practice area

  • Cost components for analysis

    • Capacity, energy, transmission, and other components

  • Extensive experience

    • Dr. Ren Orans

    • Brian Horii


Steps 7 and 8 upload results

Steps 7 and 8: Upload Results

  • Validate 2020 case in PLEXOS

  • Output results to CARB models for cases identified in the working group to evaluate

Outputs from the GHG Calculator

Outputs from the GHG Calculator

TM

TM

PLEXOS for Power Systems

PLEXOS for Power Systems

Wholesale Market

Wholesale Market

Generation Outputs

Generation Outputs

Verify Results in 2030

Verify Results in 2020

Wholesale electric prices

Wholesale electric prices

Expenditure on new

Expenditure on new

Imports / Exports

Imports / Exports

generation resources

generation resources

Expenditure on new

Expenditure on new

GHG Outputs

GHG Outputs

transmission

transmission

CARB Models: Energy 2020, EDRAM

CARB Macro

-

economic Model

GHG price

GHG price

Rate Analysis Outputs

Rate Analysis Outputs

WECC

WECC

-

-

wide emissions

wide emissions

Economic Impact of GHG Policy

Economic Impact of GHG Policy

Retail rate impact

Retail rate impact

Emissions to serve CA

Emissions to serve CA

Affects on California

on California


Data sources and agency proceedings

Data Sources and Agency Proceedings


Options and inputs informing the model

GHG Methodology

GHG Policy

CPUC Tool

Data Inputs

Targeted Policy

Options and Inputs: Informing the Model

Joint Agency Proceedings Stakeholder Process Agency & Industry Data


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

GHG Policies


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

Targeted Policies


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

GHG Methodologies


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

Regional Policies


Ghg modeling kickoff meeting

Data Inputs


Questions next steps

Questions? Next Steps


Upcoming key dates tentative1

Upcoming Key Dates (Tentative)

  • September 21st

    • Kick-off Meeting for GHG Modeling

  • October 24th

    • Public release of data and methodology summaries on E3 website

  • November 2nd

    • Public release of initial model and summary of results on E3 website

  • November 14th

    • CPUC workshop on initial model data, method, and results

  • November 30th, Mid-December

    • Post-workshop Comments and Reply Comments complete

http://www.ethree.com

Information and Results


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