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16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Bay Area Apartment Association & TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc . “Ready … Set. … Go !!! The Multi-Family Market is Coming Back. 16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum. Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel December 8 th , 2010 Sponsored by:. HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS.

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16 th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

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  • Bay Area Apartment Association &

  • TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.

“Ready … Set. … Go !!!

The Multi-Family Market is Coming Back

16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Tampa Westshore Marriott Hotel

December 8th , 2010

Sponsored by:


HISTORICAL EMPLOYMENT TRENDS


SINGLEFAMILYPERMITTRENDS


MULTIFAMILYPERMITTRENDS


OCCUPANCYTRENDS

triad


RENTAL PRICING TRENDS


2010 TAMPA BAY AREAPIPELINE & NEW CONSTRUCTION REPORT


BAYAREAPIPELINE


HILLSBOROUGHPIPELINE


PINELLASPIPELINE


PASCOPIPELINE


POLKPIPELINE


RENTAL HOUSING DEMAND

NEW DYNAMICS OF THE ECONOMY IMPACT

THE METHODOLOGIES OF PROJECTING RENTER DEMAND

SUPPLYLACK OF SUPPLY – LIMITED NEW CONSTRUCTION

INCOMESADJUSTED HH INCOMES - JOB LOSS (REDUCED HH INCOME) – SAVINGS LOSS - CREDIT LOSS

CONSUMERSADJUSTED HOUSING CHOICES – INCOME DRIVEN CHANGE – FORECLOSURES – SHORT SALES

THEORY PREVIOUS METHODOLOGIES OF POP/HH GROWTH, JOB GROWTH, NEW INVENTORY GROWTH ARE NOT CURRENTLY ACCURATE OR VALID. NEW DYNAMICS ARE KEEPING DEMAND STRONG – ONLY CURRENT VIABLE METHODOLOGY IS ACTUAL MARKET PERFORMANCE.


BAYAREAMULTIFAMILYTRENDS

HILVACANT LAND OPPS IN BRANDON & SOUTH COUNTY – ACTIVE NEW CONS IN BRANDON & WESTSHORE & TAMPA PALMS – 221 (d)(4)s ACTIVE - REVS COMPLETE, MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE

PINONLY CONS IN GATEWAY & URBAN ST PETE – 221 (D)(4) LARGO CLRWTR – RESTABILIZING, MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE

PASONLY ACTIVE NEW CONS SR 54/56 – NEW DEMAND EXPANDING OUT OF DISTRESSED DRI’s – OPP IN MID COUNTY & WESLEY CHAPLE - MARKET RECOVERY ABOVE AVERAGE

POLLAND AVAIL/AFFORD FOR FUTURE PIPELINE – NO NEW CONS - NO ACTIVITY AT THIS TIME DUE LOW OCC & NEGATIVE RENT GROWTH

MANLAND AVAIL & DEMAND LIMITED FOR FUTURE DEV – BENEFIT FROM SOUTHWARD HILLS EXPANSION & PINELLAS BUILDOUT IN THE FUTURE – ACTIVITY IN LWR ATTHIS TIME – MARKET RECOVERY MODERATE

SARNEW CONST ALL BUT STOPPED – REVS IN RECOVERY – LAND EXPENSIVE & MOST ACTIVITY IN ACQUISITIONS – OCC & RENT GROWTH MODERATE

GLOBAL TRENDSNEW CONST SLOWED BY FINANCINT - DEMAND GROWING DUE TO DISTRESS SF & ECONOMIC TIMES - RECOVERY TO 94%-95% IN 6 TO 12 – FORECLOSURES JOB CHANGES CREATING NEW DEMAND – EMPLOY DOWN – REGION STRONGER THAN MOST OF FLORIDA - FINANCING THE CHALLENGE – PLAYERS W/$$ WILL PLAY – “VULTURE CAPITALISTS” ARE CIRCLING OVERHEAD FOR ACQ @ 50% FOR REPOSITIONING


  • Bay Area Apartment Association &

  • TRIAD Research & Consulting, Inc.

THANK YOU

16th Annual Tampa Bay Multifamily Developers Forum

Sponsored by:


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