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Western Water Supply & NWS Water Resources. Kevin Werner , Lisa Holts , Drew Peterson , CBRFC Andrew Murray , WRH Don Laurine , NWRFC Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC Ross Wolford, MBRFC Tony Anderson, ABRFC Paul McKee, WGRFC Jim Noel, OHRFC

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Western water supply nws water resources

Western Water Supply&NWS Water Resources

Kevin Werner, Lisa Holts, Drew Peterson, CBRFC

Andrew Murray, WRH

Don Laurine, NWRFC

Jay Breidenbach, WFO Boise

Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, CNRFC

Ross Wolford, MBRFC

Tony Anderson, ABRFC

Paul McKee, WGRFC

Jim Noel, OHRFC

Mary Mullusky, OCWWS


Outline
Outline

  • Site Overview

  • Future Plans


Nws western water supply water resources outlook
NWS Western Water Supply /Water Resources Outlook

2008 version

2009 version:

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater


  • Easy to understand

  • Meaningful

  • Accessible from forecasts

  • Dynamically generated plots from database

Data Visualization

  • Examine and get a feel for the data.

  • Are there patterns in the data?

  • Historical

  • Streamflow Histogram

  • Scatterplot

Error and Skill Score

  • Examine through lead time or water year.

  • Are some data sources better than others?

  • Are forecasts improving over time?

  • Mean Absolute Error

  • Root Mean Square Error

  • Root Mean Squared Error Skill Score


Forecast Uncertainty

  • Examine the forecast exceedance values.

  • Are the bounds too high or too low?

  • Rank Histogram

Categorical

  • Do the forecast track extreme years?

  • Are forecasts improved with lead time?

  • Probability of Detection

  • False Alarm Rate

  • Contingency Table

Climate Variability

  • How does the basin act from year to year? Is there a general trend?

  • Lag -1 Climate Variability


  • Dynamic

    • Graph changes on click

    • Mouse-over displays info about graph

  • Threshold

    • Default is Climatology / Historical Average (KAF)

  • Graph Options

    • Any Combination of Options

    • Different options based on statistic chosen


  • Early Verification Successes:

    • First systematic look at water supply forecast verification

    • CBRFC using to drive developments for water supply forecast program

    • Customers using to inform decisions and validate forecasts


Key

Verification

Result #1:

ESP generally outperforms all other forecasts

  • ESP reforecasts made over 1980-2005 with no forecaster intervention

  • Compared to archived official forecasts and tools

  • Suggests well calibrated continuous RFC models could be the foundation of water supply forecast system

  • Important implications for future of water supply forecast process


Key

Verification

Result #2:

Forecasts have generally improved in recent years

2001-2008

  • Reasons not well understood

  • 2000s have been drier than previous years

  • Forecasters have increasingly leveraged ESP

1992-2000


Key

Verification

Result #3:

Categorical skill is near perfect for low years but not so good for high years

Below

Above


CBRFC

Efforts


0.1oF / Year

4oF Change by 2050


Climate Change Scenarios

Box

Spaghetti

- 0.5%/ Year

- 0.5% Change by 2011

- 0.5%/ Year

- 0.5%*4 Change by 2015

Monthly

Yearly



Future directions
Future Directions

Forecast Ensemble Adjustment

Climate Change Scenarios

Short Range Hydrologic Scenarios

Link to Drought Services

Leverage monthly / seasonal precipitation

Enhanced Ensemble Services for drought and water resources

Expanded ESP verification

Web Site Improvements


Map

Forecasts

Verification

Climate Change

Data

About

Water Supply Tools

Ensemble Forecasts

  • Flood Risk

  • -3 months

  • -Weekly

  • Accumulate Over Time:

  • Months

  • Seasons

  • Year

  • Risk of Low Flow:

  • -Daily mean

  • -Week mean

  • -Month mean

  • Peak Flow:

  • -Flow

  • -Time to peak

  • Time Domain:

  • -Start

  • -End

Map

Outlook

Verification

Data

Water Resource Tools


Future steps
Future Steps

- Spring strategy meeting for developers

- Possible developments: - Revisit database schema and identify new datasets needed - Identify new WRO capabilities such as including forecast streamflow percentile on map, ESP verification, conversions to mean daily flow, gridded monthly NCDC precipitation, etc - How to incorporate new items and make it more SIMPLE at the same time - Solicit / engage user community for feedback, requirements, etc.


Contact
Contact

www.nwrfc.noaa.gov/westernwater

Questions:

Lisa Holts, Kevin Werner (CBRFC)

Suggestions/Comments:

Alan Haynes, Alan Takamoto, Scott Staggs, (CNRFC)


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