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U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook July 2010 - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook July 2010. Economic Policy Division. Real GDP Outlook. Comparing Recessions. Potential GDP and the Unemployment Rate. Personal Consumption Outlook. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures. Real Disposable Income Per Capita. Household Wealth.

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U.S. Chamber of Commerce Economic OutlookJuly 2010

Economic Policy Division

Personal Consumption Outlook

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures

Real Disposable Income Per Capita

Household Wealth

Retail Sales

Housing Market Trends

Home Sales

Housing Starts

Housing Inventory

Median Home Prices

Housing Market Trends

Spread between 30 Year Conventional Mortgage and 10 Year Treasury Note

Housing Affordability Index

Mortgage Delinquency Rates

Mortgage Foreclosure Rates


Real Private Investment in Equipment & Software

Real Change in Private Inventories

Real Private Investment - Structures

Investment Drivers

Industrial Production

Corporate Profits

Purchasing Managers’ Index

Inventory-to-Sales Ratio: Total Business

U.S. Trade

Real Net Exports of Goods and Services

Real GDP Growth of Top Trading Partners

U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

Labor Market

Total Nonfarm Jobs

Household Employment

Unemployment Rate June 9.5%

Initial Unemployment Claims

Labor Market

Part-time for Economic Reasons

Discouraged Workers

Duration ofUnemployment

Civilian Participation Rate


Core Consumer Price Index

Consumer Price Index

Spot Market Price Index: All Commodities

Market Inflation Expectations

Interest Rates

10-Year Treasury Note Yield

3-Month Treasury Note Yield

Risk Spread

Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield

Yield Spread

Banking and Credit Markets

TED Spread

3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury

Commercial Paper Spread

30 Day A2/P2 Less AA Nonfinancial CP

Bank Reserve Positions

The President’s Budget

(Forecast from CBO)

Deficit to GDP

Sources of tax revenue of total revenues fiscal years
Sources of Tax Revenue (% of Total Revenues, Fiscal Years)

Government outlays of total outlays fiscal years
Government Outlays(% of Total Outlays, Fiscal Years)

Mandatory spending of total mandatory spending fiscal years
Mandatory Spending(% of Total Mandatory Spending, Fiscal Years)

Discretionary spending of total discretionary spending fiscal years
Discretionary Spending(% of Total Discretionary Spending, Fiscal Years)