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Environment Canada and the Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games. Arnold Ashton Ontario Storm Prediction Centre Environment Canada Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014. PanAm : July 10-26, 2015. Parapan : Aug 7-15, 2015. Scope of Games:.

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Presentation Transcript

Environment Canada

and the

Toronto 2015 Pan American & Parapan American Games

Arnold Ashton

Ontario Storm Prediction Centre

Environment Canada

Great Lakes Operational Meteorology Workshop

Ann Arbor, May 13-15, 2014


Scope of games

PanAm: July 10-26, 2015

Parapan: Aug 7-15, 2015

Scope of Games:


Previous games
Previous Games:

Guadalajara, 2011


Environment canada s role
Environment Canada’s Role:

Two-pronged goal:

- Safety and security during the Games

- Showcase EC’s advancement in science and technology

Enhanced service:

- Two PanAm desks + One Briefer desk

- Issue VENUE-specific warnings and Tailored venue forecasts


Main goal s
Main Goal(s):

Training

To create a FRAMEWORK:

- CONSISTENCY in forecasts & warnings

- ACCURACY in forecasts & warnings

- To improve warning LEAD TIMES (and reduce False Alarms)


Severe Weather Warningsareimportant, especially in large crowd scenarios such as the 2015 Games

Ottawa

Jul 17, 2011

Camrose

Aug 1, 2009

  • SEVERE WEATHER BULLETIN

  • ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

  • AT 12:02 PM EDT TUESDAY 29 MAY 2012.

  • ---------------------------------------------------------------------

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

  • =NEW= CALEDON

  • =NEW= NEWMARKET - GEORGINA - NORTHERN YORK REGION =NEW= SHELBURNE - MANSFIELD - NORTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY =NEW= INNISFIL - NEW TECUMSETH - ANGUS =NEW= HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY =NEW= BARRIE - COLLINGWOOD - HILLSDALE

  • STRATFORD - MITCHELL - SOUTHERN PERTH COUNTY

  • LISTOWEL - MILVERTON - NORTHERN PERTH COUNTY

  • MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY

  • ORANGEVILLE - GRAND VALLEY - SOUTHERN DUFFERIN COUNTY.

  • A CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING NORTHEAST AT

  • 70 KM/H THROUGH THE AREA. THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING 2

  • TO 4 CM HAIL, HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H.

  • SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING IN THE AREA.

  • THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL, DAMAGING WINDS OR HEAVY

  • RAINFALL. REMEMBER THAT SOME SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN ALSO

  • PRODUCE TORNADOES.

  • EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ONTARIO RECOMMENDS TAKING COVER

  • IMMEDIATELY WHEN THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

  • ==DISCUSSION==

  • A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH EASTERN ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WILL TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE MAIN THREATS. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OUT OF ONTARIO BY EARLY EVENING BRINGING AN END TO THE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

  • REFER TO YOUR LOCAL PUBLIC FORECAST FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

  • END/OSPC

SUMMER SEVERE WEATHER

Heavy Rain Strong Winds Air Quality

Lightning Hail Heat/UV


Severe Weather Warnings, Smog and Humidex Advisories are Issued as Required

Forecasts are for broad areas

Severe Thunderstorm

Warning

Weather Warnings are issued on Sub-Region Scale.

The Severe Weather can be sub sub regional! Or Points!

NEED VENUE WARNINGS!



  • Compact Weather Stations– station on a stick

    • Temperature

    • Humidity

    • Pressure

    • Wind Speed and Direction

    • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

  • High Resolution digital weather camera

  • Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)


  • Compact Weather Stations– station on a stick

    • Temperature

    • Humidity

    • Pressure

    • Wind Speed and Direction

    • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

  • High Resolution digital weather camera

  • Black Globe Temperature Sensor (Heat stress)


  • ATMOS Weather Stations– fancier

    • Temperature

    • Humidity

    • Pressure

    • Wind Speed and Direction (10 m)

    • Rain – Start, Intensity, amount, stop

  • Research grade equipment (WMO guidelines)





Wind

Compass

GPS

Pressure

Logger

T/RH (ventilated)

EC AMMOS Mobile Mesonet Stations

Three units


LightningMappingArray


LightningMappingArray-

Google Earthexampleshowingtwostrikes


Courtesy: Dr. David Sills


GUIDANCE from EXPERIMENTAL SUB-KM NUMERICAL WEATHER PREDICTION

250-m grid spacing computational domain

Test the ability of new NWP to provide improved guidance for the following events over the GTA:

  • Heat episodes

  • Lake breezes

  • Initiation, evolution, and intensification of intense convective activity


Ontario hourly aqhi forecasts
Ontario PREDICTIONHourlyAQHI Forecasts

Pilot Project Launched during the Pan Am Games for:

  • Toronto Downtown

  • Toronto Island

  • Toronto East

  • Toronto West

  • Toronto North

  • York University

  • Hamilton Downtown

  • Hamilton Mountain


Heat and health
Heat PREDICTION and Health


Questions

Questions? PREDICTION

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Pan_American_Games#Venues

http://www.toronto2015.org/

Contact: Arnold Ashton

[email protected]


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