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中国适应气候变化项目会议. 气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响. The impact of Climate Change on Pasture Husbandry in China. 中国农业大学 潘学标. Pan Xuebiao China Agricultural University. 提纲 Outline. 1 气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响 Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry 2 气候年际变化牧草生物量的影响

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slide1

中国适应气候变化项目会议

气候变化对草地畜牧业的影响

The impact of Climate Change on Pasture Husbandry in China

中国农业大学 潘学标

Pan Xuebiao

China Agricultural University

outline
提纲 Outline
  • 1 气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响

Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry

  • 2 气候年际变化牧草生物量的影响

CC on grass biomass

  • 3 气候对牧草物候期的影响与动态模拟

CC on pasture and grass phenological period

  • 4 基于SPACSYS模型的牧草生育模拟与情景分析

CC on feed crop development and growth with SPACSYS model

  • 5 结论

Conclusion

1 impacts of climate change cc on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry
1气候变化对北方草地畜牧业地区边界有影响Impacts of Climate change (CC) on regional border of grassland and pasture husbandry
  • 总体上变暖变干,中东部降水减少
  • Warmer and dryer, lower precipitation in middle east
  • 农牧交错中段西部南界南移
  • The border of farming-pastoral ecotonemoves southwards
slide4

全区有气候变暖趋势

内蒙古1961-1990年T≥0℃积温分布图

Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner Mongolia

1961-1990 T≥0℃

slide5

全区有气候变暖趋势

内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃积温分布图

Distribution of accumulative degree day in Inner Mongolia

1991-2005 T≥0℃

内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃积温分布图

slide6

内蒙古1961-1990年T≥0℃期间降水量分布图

Distribution of precipitation during T≥0℃in Inner Mongolia

1961-1990

slide7

内蒙古1991-2005年T≥0℃期间降水量分布图

Distribution of precipitation during T≥0℃in Inner Mongolia

1991-2005

东部降水减少,干旱带东移

slide8

内蒙古1961-1990年湿润系数分布图

Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia

1961-1990

slide9

内蒙古1991-2005年湿润系数分布图

Distribution of Coefficient of Humidity in Inner Mongolia

1991-2005

全区中东部变干,西部有所缓解

slide10

图3-8 1976-2005年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况

图3-7 1971-2000年北方农牧交错带边界移动情况

北方农牧交错带地区边界移动情况The moving of border of farming-pastoral ecotone

该分析中以1961-1990年划定的边界为基准,分别讨论1971-2000年与1976-2005年北方农牧交错带的边界移动情况。

slide12

biomass

野外考察结果:

Field Survey over 3years

样地草地生物量年际差异大

Biomass was very different

Xilinhot

Sonid Zuoqi

Darhan Muminggan qi

3 impacts of cc on phenological period of grass and its simulation
3 气候对牧草物候期的影响与动态模拟Impacts of CC on phenological period of grass and its simulation
slide14

额尔古纳羊草和贝加尔针茅的返青期和枯黄期的相关性 correlation of the period of seedling establishment and the brown period in two species (China Leymus and Needlegrass)

Needlegrass

Date of Needlegrass beginning growth

Date of Leymus beginning growth

Leymus

Date of grass scorch

slide15

巴雅尔吐胡硕地区羊草、冰草和萎陵菜1995-2007年返青期和枯黄期的变化趋势 Change of the period of seedling establishment and the brown period from 1995 to 2007 in three grass species

period of seedling establishment

the brown period

China Leymus

Wheatgrass

Cinquefoil

change of the phenological period in two grass species
察右后旗羊草和克氏针茅的物候期变化趋势 Change of the phenological period in two grass species

Flowering date

China Leymus

Needlegrass

China Leymus

Needlegrass

seedling establishment

the brown period

Maturity date

China Leymus

Needlegrass

China Leymus

Needlegrass

slide17

镶黄旗冰草返青期与温度、开花期与和降水的相关关系correlation of the period of seedling establishment and temperature in spring (a); correlation of the period of flowering and precipitation (b) of Wheatgrass at Xianghuang Qi

Precipitation in July

Spring Temperature

correlation analysis of climatic factor and phenological period in three grass species
冷蒿、糙隐子草和芦苇物候期与气候因子相关性分析 Correlation analysis of climatic factor and phenological period in three grass species

*:P<0.05 **: P<0.01

development grass simulation model to simulate development of leymus and needlgrass et al
建立天然草地模型,可分别对羊草,针茅进行模拟Development Grass simulation model To simulate development of Leymus and needlgrass et al
slide22

牧草物候模型的计算机模拟原理

每日发育时期指数可以表述为:

即每天的发育时期指数等于前一天的发育速率与当天发育速率的和,当发育时期指数累加到DSI时,则表示生育阶段模拟完成,得到的该生育阶段的天数。此时,牧草即将进入下一个生育阶段。并以此类推,即可模拟牧草整个物候期的变化。

p arameters
模型的参数Parameters

典型牧草物候模型主要参数列表

modelling test
模型参数调试 Modelling test

不同牧草各物候阶段的模型参数及参数调试结果统计检验

validation of phenological period simulation
牧草物候模型验证 Validation ofPhenological period simulation

Leymus

needlgrass

Simulation

Simulation

Observation

Observation

comparison of simulated phenological period and measured phenological period
察右后旗和鄂温克旗针茅返青期模拟值与实测值的比较 Comparison of simulated phenological period and measured phenological period
gm 2 change of chinese wildrye production in hulunber trial station
呼伦贝尔牧业试验站羊草产量变化(gm-2)Change of Chinese wildrye production in Hulunber trial station
gm 2 change of pasture production in hulunber trial station
呼伦贝尔牧业试验站牧草总产量变化(gm-2)Change of pasture production in Hulunber trial station
9 30 correlation of biomass production on 30 th september and annual precipitation in hulunber
呼伦贝尔9月30日生物量与年降水量的关系Correlation of biomass production on 30th September and annual precipitation in Hulunber
brief summary
小结Brief summary
  • 模型已能较好地模拟天然牧草物候期
  • 拟加入光合生产模型,以便能模拟草地生物量
  • 与气候变化结合,即可用于评估未来气候变化对草地物候和生物量的影响
4 spacsys cc on pasture development and growth with spacsys model
4 基于SPACSYS模型的饲草作物生育模拟与情景分析CC on pasture development and growth with SPACSYS model
  • 模型简介 Introduction of SPACSYS model
  • 模型案例 Application;Case study
  • 基于典型区域气候情景的模拟分析

Simulation of CC impact in typical climate sites

slide34

SPACSYS模型作者及特点

Lianhai Wu

Crop & Soil Systems Research Group

Sottish Agricultural College

多层 multi-soil layers(用户设定土壤层数)

田间尺度 field scale

气候驱动 weather-driven

日模拟 daily steps

  • 作物生长和发育(包括地上和地下部分,可模拟单作或间作)plant growth and development
  • N & C 循环 N&C cycling
  • 土壤水运动 soil water movement
  • 热量传递 heat conduction
spacsys framework
SPACSYS 模型框架 Framework

Fresh OM

Humus

Dissolved OM

Transpiration

Precipitation

CO2

N2O, NO

Deposition

Canopy storage

Evaporation

CO2

CO2

Fertiliser

Surface runoff

Runoff loss

Surface pool

Litter, manure

CO2

NH4

NO3

Microbial

Soil water

Soil heat

Groundwater

percolation

leaching

leaching

c c cycling
C 模块框架 C cycling

Photosynthate partitioning could be operated either by default equation or use-defined parameters

CO2

leaves

CO2

manure

translocaton

seeds

above ground litter

runoff

stems

runoff

runoff

root

litter

DOM

pool

microbe

pool

CO2

CO2

fresh OM

pool

mortality

humus

pool

spacsys dataset
SPACSYS 数据支持 Dataset
  • 气象数据 weather data

(最高温度,最低温度,降水,风速,湿度,日照时数,总辐射,净辐射)

  • 土壤数据 soil information

(土壤理化性质,土壤容重,孔隙度,萎蔫点,pH值等;土壤分层,及各层的水分含量,温度,C&N含量)

  • 作物参数 crop paremater

(发育,光合,干物质分配,等;固氮,3D根系可选)

  • 作物管理等 plant management

(播种,灌溉,施肥,翻耕等)

SPACSYS模型数据运行与管理可通过MS SQL, MS Access or MySQL进行。

spacsys output
SPACSYS 数据输出 Output

发育期

光合速率

作物器官生长

作物器官衰老

作物呼吸

叶面积

  • 作物模拟输出 Crop output
  • 土壤C&N模拟输出 Soil C&N
  • 水热传输模拟输出 Water and heat
  • 根系模拟输出 Root system

豆科作物固氮

NO3-,NH4+吸收

作物吸水

作物各器官含氮量

spacsys application
SPACSYS在模拟牧草上的应用 Application
  • 案例 Case 1:

阿伯丁,苏格兰 (Aberdeen, UK)

2001-2003

大麦 (barley), grass/clover mixed pasture

  • 案例 Case 2:

欧洲气候背景下

1)Risø, Denmark 1984

2)Dijon, France 1999

3)Copenhagen, Denmark 2000

豌豆(field pea)

不同氮素肥料施用处理下的 N application treatments

slide40

SPACSYS在欧洲气候背景下应用

SPACSYS模型验证对欧洲三个站点豌豆生长季内地上部分生物量模拟

Comparison of simulated aboveground DM and measurement in all three sites

横轴为实测值,纵轴为模拟值,(−) 1:1 line

spacsys cc on filed pea in inner mongolia based on scenario of sres a2
SPACSYS模拟初步评估气候变化影响CC on filed pea in Inner Mongolia based on scenario of SRES A2
  • 地点:内蒙古试验站 Inner Mongolia four sites (grids)

格点 Central points of Grids

站名 纬度 经度 地形高度数据(单位:米)

latitude longitude altitude (m)

武川 Wuchuan 41.07 111.38 1529.77

四子王旗 Siziwangqi 41.51 111.41 1524.00

锡林浩特 Xilinhaote 43.89 116.42 1198.85

杭锦旗 Hangjinqi 39.82 108.44 1366.03

slide42
作物:豌豆(箭舌豌豆)Filed pea
  • 材料 Material1:

2008年内蒙古武川粮草轮作试验 Experimental data in Wuchuan site

1)发育期观测 Development

2)开花期,结荚成熟期,成熟枯黄期,三个时期茎,叶,根,荚果干物重测定,最终产量 Biomass sampling

3)气候监测数据,土壤数据等 Weather and soil data

目的 Goal:作物参数调整 Crop parameter determination

spacsys
SPACSYS模拟案例
  • 情景分析 Weather data input

SRES A2情景下HadAM3驱动的PRECIS第二组作业输出结果订正值及相应的气候基准时段订正值(其中风速为模式原始值)

  • 模拟 Modelling

4月25日播种 sowing date 25th Apr.

8月1日收获 harvest 1st Aug.

1961-1990

2021-2050

输出 Output:豌豆的生育期,产量,生物量变化 development, seeds production, aboveground biomass

change of emergence in wuchuan days after sowing
Change of emergence in Wuchuan (days after sowing)

武川豌豆出苗期(自播种后日数)随气候变化趋势

slide45

Change of flowering in Wuchuan (days after sowing)

武川豌豆开花期(自播种后日数)随气候变化趋势

change of mature in wuchuan days after sowing
Change of mature in Wuchuan (days after sowing)

武川豌豆成熟期(自播种后日数)随气候变化趋势

slide47

武川豌豆发育期 development(自播种后天数 days after sowing)年代平均随气候变化趋势 in Wuchuan

slide48

Change of seeds production at harvest in Wuchuan (g/m2)

武川豌豆籽粒产量(g/m2)随气候变化趋势

slide49

Change of aboveground DM at harvest in Wuchuan (g/m2)

武川豌豆地上部生物量(g/m2)随气候变化趋势

slide50

武川豌豆收获期生物量(g/m2)年代平均随气候变化趋势武川豌豆收获期生物量(g/m2)年代平均随气候变化趋势

Change of biomass at harvest (g/m2)

slide51
锡林浩特地区

CC on field pea development in Xilinhaote

发育期提早

The whole growth length is shorten

simulation of cc on filed pea in xilinhaote
利用气候情景模拟结果(锡林浩特地区)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Xilinhaote

成熟期提早接近10天,生物量减少,收获指数增加

slide53
四子王旗地区

CC on field pea development in SiIziwangqi

发育期提早

The whole growth length is shorten

simulation of cc on filed pea in siziwangqi
利用气候情景模拟结果(四子王旗地区格点)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Siziwangqi

成熟期提早接近10天,地上总生物量减少,收获指数增加

slide56

H

杭锦旗地区格点

CC on field pea development in Hangjinqi

发育期提早

The whole growth length is shorten

H

H

slide57

H

杭锦旗地区格点

CC on field pea development in Hangjinqi

生物量下降

Biomass declines

H

simulation of cc on filed pea in hangjinqi
利用气候情景模拟结果(杭锦旗地区格点)Simulation of CC on filed pea in Hangjinqi

2030-2040年代,成熟期提早接近10天,地上总生物量减少,产量降低,收获指数增加

conclusion
结论Conclusion
  • 气候变化使草地牧业的区域边界移动

Moving of pasture and husbandry border

  • 气候变化对草地牧草物候、生物量有影响

CC on pasture development and production

  • 利用模型可进行牧草发育期和生物量的模拟

Modelling pasture development and production

  • 与气候情景数据结合,加上土壤数据库,可模拟未来气候对牧草和饲料作物的影响

Modelling CC on pasture

  • 模拟工作刚开始,精细的工作有待今后进行。

Potential works in future

slide60
谢谢!

Thank you!

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