Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005)
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Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005) Kristen L. Corbosiero, Wei Wang, Yongsheng Chen, Jimy Dudhia and Christopher Davis National Center for Atmospheric Research. The Advanced Hurricane WRF

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Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005)

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Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Advanced Research WRF High Resolution Simulations of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (2005)

Kristen L. Corbosiero, Wei Wang, Yongsheng Chen, Jimy Dudhia and Christopher Davis

National Center for Atmospheric Research


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

  • The Advanced Hurricane WRF

  • Run in real-time at NCAR since 2004 when a tropical cyclone (TC) threatened to make landfall within 3-5 days

  • Two or three domains (12, 4, 1.33 km) with two-way moveable nests that follow the hurricane center

  • Initialized from GFDL at 00 UTC and/or 12 UTC

  • Kain-Fritsch cumulus (12 km only), WSM3 microphysics, YSU PBL scheme, drag (Donelan) and surface enthalpy coefficients (Carlson-Boland) for TCs

  • Available on the web at http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_main.php


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

2005 performance Seven tropical cyclone forecast systems

AHW4WRF 4 kmOFCLNational Hurricane Center officialGFDLGeophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryFSSEFlorida State Super Ensemble

Davis et al. (2007)


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Hurricane Rita

03 UTC 24 September

39 hr forecast

cm

Column maximum reflectivity

4 km

Precipitable water


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Hurricane Wilma

4 km Precipitable water

cm

22 UTC 20 October22 hr forecast

05 UTC 24 October77 hr forecast


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

HurricaneKatrina

Precipitable water

12 km21 UTC 8/28

1.33 km00 UTC 8/29

4 km03 UTC 8/29

cm


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Corbosiero et al. (2006)

Kossin & Schubert (2004)

Lewis & Hawkins (1982)

Reasor et al. (2000)


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Katrina Radar Reflectivity20 UTC 28 August

Top: WRF 4 km(left), 1.33 km(right)Right: ELDORA radar

RAINEX JOSS Field Catalog


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

1752

1930

2036

2232

HRD/AOML/NOAA


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Katrina Wind speed

Left:Dual Doppler 1725-1946 UTC28 AugustRight:WRF 1.33 km 18 UTCTop: 700 hPaBottom: 900 hPa

m/s

HRD/AOML/NOAA


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Rita Wind speed

Left:Dual Doppler 2015-2208 UTC23 SeptemberRight:WRF 4 km 01 UTC24 September Top: 700 hPaBottom: 900 hPa

m/s

HRD/AOML/NOAA


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Both the real and WRF vorticity profiles exhibit sharp gradients of vorticity and changes in the sign of ∂ζ/ ∂r.

Such profiles satisfy the necessary condition for barotropic instability.


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Schubert et al. (1999)


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Katrina 1.33 km WRF900 hPa wind speed

m/s

900 hPa relative vorticity

x 10-4 s-1


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Linear stability analysis

The 1.33 km WRF simulation is most unstable to wavenumber 2, with significant wavenumber 1-4 instability.

The 4 km WRF simulation is most unstable to wavenumbers 1 and 2, with very little instability at higher wavenumbers.

Code provided by M. Montgomery and M. Bell


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

  • Questions and Unresolved Issues

  • Are model numerics and parameterizations playing a role in the abundance of triangular eyewalls?

  • Do tropical cyclones pose a unique problem to WRF with their circular geometry and strong diabatic heating- vorticity generation feedback?

  • Will 1.33 km WRF TCs always be too weak due to an abundance of eyewall asymmetries?

  • What is the resolution dependence of these eyewall structures?


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

Vertical motion (warm up, cool down)185 m resolution Idealized WRF hurricane simulation

The eyewall is predominantly circular or elliptical, with transient higher wavenumber structures.


Advanced research wrf high resolution simulations of hurricanes katrina rita and wilma 2005

  • Future Work

  • Add another nest to the 1.33 km Katrina run to test resolution dependence

  • Decompose the WRF output into its various wavenumber components and compare with observations

  • Analyze the results of the 2007 hurricane season WRF 1.33 km runs

We’re not alone!

WRF 2km WilmaGFS initialization

Brian EthertonUNC Charlotte


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