Joint working group forecast verification research
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Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research. Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair Barb Brown (NCAR, USA) Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada) Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Br azil) Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK) Martin Göber (DWD, Germany) Simon Mason (IRI, USA)

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Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research

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Joint working group forecast verification research

Joint Working Group Forecast Verification Research

  • Beth Ebert (BOM, Australia) co-chair

  • Laurie Wilson (CMC, Canada) co-chair

  • Barb Brown (NCAR, USA)

  • Barbara Casati (Ouranos, Canada)

  • Caio Coelho (CPTEC, Brazil)

  • Anna Ghelli (ECMWF, UK)

  • Martin Göber (DWD, Germany)

  • Simon Mason (IRI, USA)

  • Marion Mittermaier (Met Office, UK)

  • Pertti Nurmi (FMI, Finland)

  • Joel Stein (Météo-France)

  • Yuejian Zhu (NCEP, USA)


Joint working group forecast verification research

Aims

Verification component of WWRP, in collaboration with WGNE, WCRP, CBS

  • Develop and promote new verification methods

  • Training on verification methodologies

  • Ensure forecast verification is relevantto users

  • Encourage sharing of observational data

  • Promote importance of verification as a vital part of experiments

  • Promote collaboration among verification scientists, model developers and forecast providers

  • Collaborations

  • WWRP working groups

  • THORPEX

    • GIFS-TIGGE

    • Subseasonal prediction

    • Polar prediction

  • CBS

    • Severe Wx FDPs

    • Coordination Group on Forecast Verification

  • SRNWP

  • COST 731

  • ECMWF TAC subgroup on verification measures


Fdps and rdps

FDPs and RDPs

Spatial Verification Method Intercomparison Project

a) International comparison

of many new spatial

verification methods

b) Methods applied by

researchers to same

datasets (precipitation;

perturbed cases; idealized cases)

c) Subjective forecast evaluations

d) Workshops: 2007, 2008, 2009

e) Weather and Forecasting special collection

Beijing 2008

FDP/RDP

SNOW-V10

RDP

Sydney 2000

FDP

Sochi 2014

MAP D-PHASE

Severe Weather

FDP

Typhoon Landfall

FDP


Outreach

Outreach

http://www.cawcr.gov.au/projects/verification/

Melbourne, December 2011

3-day tutorial + 3-day scientific workshop

Capacity building for FDPs/RDPs, SWFDP, etc.

  • Verification workshops and tutorials

    • On-site, travelling

  • EUMETCAL training modules

  • Verification web page

  • Sharing of tools


New focus areas for jwgfvr research

New focus areas for JWGFVR research

"Seamless verification" - consistent across space/time scales

seasonal

prediction

climate

change

Spatial methods for verifying ensemble predictions

Neighborhood, scale-separation, feature-based, deformation

NWP

decadal

prediction

sub-

seasonal

prediction

global

very

short

range

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - RCM - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

regional

nowcasts

Spatial scale

local

point

minutes

hours

days

weeks

months

years

decades

Forecast lead time


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