Luis A Cifuentes P. Catholic University of Chile In Session Workshop on Mitigation 23 May 2005

1. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Integrated Environmental Strategies (IES) Program: Local Benefits With Global Results Luis A Cifuentes P. Catholic University of Chile In Session Workshop on Mitigation 23 May 2005

2. Contents • Overview of the IES Program • Relevant results from some participating countries • Conclusions

3. IES: U.S. EPA’s Integrated Environmental Strategies Program • Established in 1998 as a capacity-enhancing co-benefits program with a focus on GHG reductions. • Partners local teams in developing countries with experts and tools from U.S. EPA, other IES projects, and other organizations (e.g., U.S. AID, NREL). • Identifies and analyzes integrated (i.e., greenhouse-gas mitigation and air quality) strategies and co-benefits.

4. Integrated • Low-sulfur coal • Smokestack controls • Catalytic converters • Inspection and maintenance • Diesel particle traps • Evaporative controls • Clean fuels/renewables • Energy efficiency programs • Fuel switching • Public transport and land use • Retirement of older vehicles • Efficiency standards for new vehicles/appliances Global • Carbon sequestration • Forest management • Control of other GHGs (CH4, N2O, CFCs, SF6) • Geoengineering Local Integrated Jason West et al (2002) What are integrated measures?

5. What are “co-benefits”? • All the beneficial outcomes of a policy that reduces two or more air emissions simultaneously. • For IES, reductions in emissions of greenhouse gases as well as local, conventional air pollutants. • Includes human health benefits and associated economic benefits due to reduced local air pollution.

6. Co-Benefits Framework

7. IES goals • Identify strategies that reduce GHG emissions and improve local air quality while meeting public health, economic development objectives. • Provide stakeholders with quantitative estimates of global and local co-benefits of policies and technologies. • Engage stakeholders to lay groundwork for implementation of cost-effective air quality management strategies. • Build analytical, institutional, and human capacity for multidisciplinary analysis of GHG mitigation, health, and environmental impacts of alternative strategies. • Transfer tools and methodologies for co-benefits analysis.

8. Participating Countries Countries with IES projects: China, India, Philippines, South Korea, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico

9. IES analytical approach Data Data inputs Energy & GHG mitigation scenarios Projected GHG/pollutant emissions Projected concentrations Projected health benefits & end points Models Energy/ emissions models Air quality models Health effects models Economic valuation models Projected economic benefits & end points

10. Challenges of the Analysis • Emissions data • Moving from emission inventories to exposure levels • Health Impacts Quantification • Cost analysis

11. How can IES help • Provides expertise in key issues: • Emissions inventories • Transport modeling • Atmospheric Modeling • Health Impacts Quantification • Two specific models for quantify and value reduced health impacts: • BenMap • Apheba • Network of IES teams provides help and cooperation

12. Overview of BenMAP Model (4) Health impact functions (incidence modeling) (5) Aggregation and pooling of results (6) Valuation functions (benefits modeling) (3) Characterizing air quality changes (model and monitor data) (7) Uncertainty analysis (2) BenMAP data needs and data input (8) BenMAP flexibility and its application in supporting specialized analyses and research (1) OVERVIEW – incidence and benefits calculation

13. Health effects incidence estimation Benefits (monetary) estimation BenMAP Data Needs – linkages and interdependencies GIS coverage (map) of study area Monitored air quality data Modeled (gridded) air quality data Demographic data (projected to future simulation year) Baseline disease incidence & prevalence data (projected to future simulation year) • Health impact functions • chronic • time-series (ecologic) Economic valuation functions Income elasticity studies

14. APHEBA Air Pollution Health Effects Benefits Analysis model

15. Key Results from IES studies

16. In general, there is correlation between global and local pollutant emissions reductions Emission Reductions in Seoul

17. Reductions of emissions of GHG and PM2.5 precursors are usually correlated Santiago Study

18. 2 Health benefits usually overcome the cost of measures Hyderabad Study:

19. 3 Health benefits are usually larger than GHG benefits: Source: McKinley et al 2005. (CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton) México City Study

20. 4. The ranking of the measures changes when global benefits are considered (Source: McKinley et al 2005) CO2 reductions valued at US$ 7(2-22) per ton México City Study

21. Since the rankings are not exactly the same:Santiago Study: Source: Cifuentes et al 2000

22. 5. IES results have found their way into local policy-making Examples of IES Analysis Integrated into On-Going Planning Efforts • Santiago (Chile) Decontamination Plan • Shanghai (China) 10th and 11th Five –Year Plan • Beijing (China) 2008 Olympics AQ Plan • Seoul (Korea) Air Quality Management Plan • Mexico City (Mexico) PROAIRE Plan • Philippines Clean Air Act Evaluation

23. Summary: IES tools/resources • IES Handbook: Guidance document for policymakers, technicians • International version of manual for EPA’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP) software • Air Pollution Health Benefits Assessment Model (APHEBA) users’ guide and training course. • Will provide a resource for conducting health benefits assessments of changes in air pollution concentrations. • Training course and materials on health benefits analysis. • Will provide basic information and training to country experts with conducting health benefits analysis as part of integrated environmental analysis projects. • “Reduced form” analytical tools and methodologies • Will support analysis of air pollution and GHG mitigation co-benefits where local data for detailed analysis of air pollution public health benefits is lacking.

24. Final Comments • The IES program has so far succeeded in developing integrated analyses in many countries, engaging local policy makers and building local capacity. Many of these analysis would not have been performed otherwise. • The analysis of integrated measures shows that most of them have a positive correlation between GHG and local air pollutant reductions • However, for most measures, public health benefits are an order of magnitude bigger than the potential benefits from carbon reduction

25. For more information Katherine Sibold, IES Program Manager U.S. Environmental Protection Agency Washington, DC sibold.katherine@epa.gov or +1 202 343-9280 ies@epa.gov http://www.epa.gov/ies