Freight modelling and policy analysis in denmark
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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark. Christian Overgård Hansen. Contents. History of Danish freight modelling GORM New Danish National Freight Model Status and timetable. History of Danish freight modelling. GORM Coverage area and zoning. Cover freight flows:

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Freight modelling and policy analysis in denmark

Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark

Christian Overgård Hansen


Contents

Contents

  • History of Danish freight modelling

  • GORM

  • New Danish National Freight Model

  • Status and timetable


History of danish freight modelling

History of Danish freight modelling


Gorm coverage area and zoning

GORMCoverage area and zoning

Cover freight flows:

  • Internal within Denmark and Skane

  • Between Denmark/Skane and rest of Scandinavia

  • Between Scandinavia and the European Continent

    811 zones within Europe

    21 port zones to rest of World


Gorm model structure

GORMModel structure


Gorm base year matrices data sources

GORMBase year matrices, data sources

  • Trade data

    • EUROSTAT

    • National trade statistics (DS, SCB, SSB)

    • Swedish Commodity Flow Survey (2001)

  • Data from existing models:

    • Base matrices from SENEX (year 2000)

    • Base matrices from LDK (year 1999)

    • Base matrices dorm SAMGODS (year 2001)

  • OTM and SAMPERS

    • Zonal systems

    • Data on population and workplaces


Gorm combination of road networks

GORMCombination of road networks


Gorm transport modes

GORMTransport modes

1. Truck (uni-modal)

2. Combined truck and rail transport

3. Combined truck and sea transport

4. Bulk rail transport

5. Bulk sea transport


Gorm screen lines with crossings

GORMScreen lines with crossings


Gorm model for choice of mode and crossing

GORMModel for choice of mode and crossing

  • Nested logit model

    • Lower level: Crossing

    • Upper level: Mode

  • Calibrated to 2003 base year matrices


Gorm experiences

GORM experiences

Applications of GORM:

  • Test and validation cases

  • IBU project

  • ….

    Future directions for National Freight Model:

  • Need for more and new data

  • Developments of trade (and logistics models) required

  • Nested logit model structure complicates introduction of new links


New danish national freight model objectives coverage

New Danish National Freight ModelObjectives - coverage

The freight model must include all types of goods flows related to

Denmark, i.e.

National flows within Denmark

International flows to and from Denmark

International flows transit through Denmark

Goods flows outside Denmark which potentially may be moved to a new fixed link across Fehmarn Belt


New danish national freight model objectives applications

New Danish National Freight ModelObjectives - applications

The model must provide plausible answers to a wide range of

transport policies, infrastructure investments and economy

developments, e.g. it must be able to evaluate impacts from:

Different changes to economy in Denmark and rest of the World

Fixed link across Fehmarn Belt

Developments of road, port and railway infrastructure

Development of new distribution centres (DC)

New or improved ferry, container, and Ro-Ro routes

Changes to transport and inventory costs

Introduction of giga-liners

Road user charges (e.g. MAUT)


New danish national freight model zonal system danmark

New Danish National Freight ModelZonal system - Danmark

176 zones in Denmark (L1-niveau)

Sub-divisions of municipalities


New danish national freight model zonal system outside denmark

New Danish National Freight ModelZonal system – outside Denmark

120 zones in Europe

Few zones in rest of World


New danish national freight model modified nst2007

New Danish National Freight ModelModified NST2007


New danish national freight model data collections

New Danish National Freight ModelData collections

Road side surveys at about 50 industrial and city areas

About 30 interviews with firms involved in freight transport

GPS-data (TetraPlan, Road Directorate and fleet data from logistic firms)

Incept survey across the Fehmarn Belt screen line from the green border to Ystad – Swinoujscie (Frøslev, 8 ports north og 6 ports south of line)

About 350 SP-interviews among companies in Denmark, Sweden and Germany with international transports


New danish national freight model use of data

New Danish National Freight ModelUse of data


New danish national freight model trade model

New Danish National Freight ModelTrade model

Purpose:

Estimate future trade flows by commodity group

Model:

Double constrained gravity model:

International trade covering the World

National trade

Conversion to tonnes

Status

Method under development


New danish national freight model logistics model ada

New Danish National Freight ModelLogistics model (ADA)

ShipmentChoice of shipment size and frequency.

Loading unitChoice of loading unit e.g. container.

Trans-shipmentUse of distribution centres, terminal and port for consolidation and distribution of shipments. The location of trans-shipment point are given by the user, the model determines their use.

ModeChoice of mode used for each leg of the transport chain.

CrossingChoice of crossing in the Fehmarn Belt corridor.


New danish national freight model assignment of uni modal legs

New Danish National Freight ModelAssignment of uni-modal legs


New danish national freight model timetable

New Danish National Freight ModelTimetable


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