Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark. Christian Overgård Hansen. Contents. History of Danish freight modelling GORM New Danish National Freight Model Status and timetable. History of Danish freight modelling. GORM Coverage area and zoning. Cover freight flows:
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Freight modelling and policy analysis in Denmark
Christian Overgård Hansen
Cover freight flows:
811 zones within Europe
21 port zones to rest of World
1. Truck (uni-modal)
2. Combined truck and rail transport
3. Combined truck and sea transport
4. Bulk rail transport
5. Bulk sea transport
Applications of GORM:
Future directions for National Freight Model:
The freight model must include all types of goods flows related to
National flows within Denmark
International flows to and from Denmark
International flows transit through Denmark
Goods flows outside Denmark which potentially may be moved to a new fixed link across Fehmarn Belt
The model must provide plausible answers to a wide range of
transport policies, infrastructure investments and economy
developments, e.g. it must be able to evaluate impacts from:
Different changes to economy in Denmark and rest of the World
Fixed link across Fehmarn Belt
Developments of road, port and railway infrastructure
Development of new distribution centres (DC)
New or improved ferry, container, and Ro-Ro routes
Changes to transport and inventory costs
Introduction of giga-liners
Road user charges (e.g. MAUT)
176 zones in Denmark (L1-niveau)
Sub-divisions of municipalities
120 zones in Europe
Few zones in rest of World
Road side surveys at about 50 industrial and city areas
About 30 interviews with firms involved in freight transport
GPS-data (TetraPlan, Road Directorate and fleet data from logistic firms)
Incept survey across the Fehmarn Belt screen line from the green border to Ystad – Swinoujscie (Frøslev, 8 ports north og 6 ports south of line)
About 350 SP-interviews among companies in Denmark, Sweden and Germany with international transports
Estimate future trade flows by commodity group
Double constrained gravity model:
International trade covering the World
Conversion to tonnes
Method under development
ShipmentChoice of shipment size and frequency.
Loading unitChoice of loading unit e.g. container.
Trans-shipmentUse of distribution centres, terminal and port for consolidation and distribution of shipments. The location of trans-shipment point are given by the user, the model determines their use.
ModeChoice of mode used for each leg of the transport chain.
CrossingChoice of crossing in the Fehmarn Belt corridor.