Operationalising an indicator system demography
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Operationalising an indicator system Demography. Peter Schmitt – Alexandre Dubois Nordregio. VASAB WG1 meeting 25th June, 2007 Riga. Demography - ”desired” data sets . ”general” demographic trends migration future demographic trends (”forecasts”). 1) ”general” demographic trends.

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Operationalising an indicator system Demography

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Operationalising an indicator system demography

Operationalising an indicator systemDemography

Peter Schmitt – Alexandre Dubois

Nordregio

VASAB WG1 meeting

25th June, 2007

Riga


Operationalising an indicator system demography 1318628

Demography - ”desired” data sets

  • ”general” demographic trends

  • migration

  • future demographic trends (”forecasts”)


Operationalising an indicator system demography 1318628

1) ”general” demographic trends

  • overall evolution, fertility/mortality rates

  • age groups (in 5-years intervalls, 0-4, 5-9 etc.)

  • geographic level: NUTS 5 (!)

  • time span 1995 – latest available

  • some data are available at Nordregio ( 1995-2001, cf. Hanell/Neubauer 2005)

  • CSD will be asked if an update of such data is desired or if the existing studies should be used


Operationalising an indicator system demography 1318628

2) migration

  • -here calculation of the migratory balance( total population change minus natural population change)

  • identifying the winners/losers (at NUTS 3 if possible)

  • But: we need additional qualitative information to safeguard the findings:

  •  What’s about international migration (origins/destinations specifically within the BSR/EU)

  • - National experts are asked to draft a synthesis report on the national and international migration patterns and their impact on regional development in their countries


Operationalising an indicator system demography 1318628

Source: ESPON 114, MAP 3.12, p. 105


Operationalising an indicator system demography 1318628

3) future demographic trends (”forecasts”)

  • Very complicated issue – what is the (political) focus here?

  • Possibility 1: “demographic evolution and replacement migration”  depopulation/ageing (done within ESPON 114  two variants: with and without migration, also at NUTS 2)

  •  Russia/Belarus: Experts should consider if they could provide us with some insights according to ESPON 114, Annex, B, chapter 5; to be found at: www.espon.eu/mmp/online/website/content/projects/259/651/file_1198/fr-1.1.4-full.pdf

  • Possibility 2: a rough overview that leads to a qualitative assessment of forecasted trends at hand in the different countries related to some key questions (Nordregio will come up by mid-August. with a proposal what kind of key questions could be tackled here). In the meantime the national experts are asked to check/assess what kind of forecasts are available at the national or even regional level).

  • Possibility 3: (bases on no. 2): writing narratives on scenarios building: ”What if…?” (see ESPON 3.4, Vol. 3, pp. 19-31 for inspiration) (will be considered again at a later stage of the project)


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