ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome

1. UNCLASSIFIED ASCO and DTRA Update and Welcome What are National Security Threats? 2nd Annual JTAC Workshop 4 April 2006 Richard Gullickson, Director, ASCO Richard.gullickson@dtra.mil UNCLASSIFIED

2. Message • National strategy focuses on understanding adversaries • Threat Anticipation emphasized in QDR • Adversary “deterrence calculus” key element of STRATCOM strategy deterrence assessment process • TAP makes important contribution to DTRA Campaign 6: Global Situational Awareness • Importance of international partnership with Australia

3. Low now, but rapidly increasing National Policy Shapes ASCO Portfolio • Policy themes: • Prevention: Anticipate threats • Know your adversary • Cultural and social network understanding • Deterring terrorism • Nuclear proliferation • Nuclear terrorism • Cooperative interdiction • Disruptive technologies • Technical surprise • Advanced bio threat • Knowledge transformation • Expanded DoD roles • Enabling HD/HS

4. CWC BWC DTRA is a Combat Support Agency Focused on Combating WMD National Strategy Nonproliferation Counterproliferation Consequence Management QDR Emphasis: Proliferation Prevention Stopped by Threat Control & Threat Reduction Stopped by Deterrence Stopped by Interdiction Stopped by Counterforce & Elimination Stopped by Active Defense Stopped by Passive Defense Consequence Management Restoration Operations

5. STRATCOM Center For Combating Weapons of Mass Destruction Threat Anticipation Supports Global Situational Awareness USD(AT& L) JCS Threat Reduction Advisory Committee DDR&E ATSD(NCB) STRAT DIRECTOR Deputy Director OSD-P ASCO BOD Advanced Systems & Concepts Office Business Business Excellence DoD Center for Global WMD Situational Awareness Operations R&D Control WMD Materials and Systems Worldwide Remove WMD threat to the warfighter Protect the Homeland Against Catastrophic WMD threats Deterrence Transformation

6. ASCO Projects Have Long Term Strategic Impact University Strategic Partnership Threat Anticipation UNM Iraqi Virtual Science Library Iranian WMD Homeland Defense 2008 Impact of Future Technology 2015-2025 Resources SARS Quarantine Table Top Exercise Future WMD Strategic Deterrence Strategic Crisis Management Risk Management In New Strategic Framework Future Military Conflict Time

7. New Directions in Threat Anticipation Objective • Understand and anticipate adversary behavior, motivations, world views Elements • Integrate computational and social sciences • 2 prototype models: one traditional agent-based, and one using a novel approach • Joint Threat Anticipation Center at UC, ANL • Verification and validation • Results • Analyzed Al Qaeda's decision making strategy post-Iraq War • Identified soft US mideast sites as their primary goals prior to May attacks • Agent-based model supports Joint Staff • Assessment of Indonesian stability with Australian, PACOM collaboration

8. Florida A&M Student Research Associate Program NC A&T University Strategic Partnership Innovative Research Initiative in CWMD Strategic Partnership Solving DTRA Problems He2* Metastable Cluster University of New Mexico

9. Summary • Threat anticipation is key element of national strategy • Substantial emphasis on verification and validation • Importance of partnerships • Australia • University strategic partnership