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The Great Recession and Poverty

The Great Recession and Poverty. January 19, 2012. Suzanne Porter Oregon Department Of Human Services Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 503.945.9778 FAX: 503.378.2897 sue.porter@state.or.us. Newly Poor in the Great Recession.

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The Great Recession and Poverty

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  1. The Great Recession and Poverty January 19, 2012 Suzanne Porter Oregon Department Of Human Services Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis 503.945.9778 FAX: 503.378.2897 sue.porter@state.or.us DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  2. Newly Poor in the Great Recession • First detailed look at the work characteristics of SNAP households – working age and not disabled • Compared two SNAP intake cohorts: CY 2005 and FY 2009 • Expansionary vs. recessionary period • Household structure, demographics, and work history of head of householder http://oregonstate.edu/cla/mpp/sites/default/files/pdf/newpoor_0.pdf DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  3. Comparing the 2009 with 2005 cohort: The total number of households increased by 58% The number of new households in 2009 was nearly as large as the total number of households in 2005 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  4. Multi-adult households nearly doubled Higher rates of growth among older households DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  5. Work history analyzed for the year prior to SNAP receipt Drop in earned income measured in quarter immediately preceding start of SNAP Full-time worker households nearly doubled Households experiencing a drop in earned income more than doubled Average percentage drop in earnings ≈ 1/3 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  6. DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  7. Men disproportionately affected • Number of adult males in SNAP cohort increased by 73% • 46% of 2005 cohort to 49% of 2009 cohort • Increase partially due to disruption in construction and manufacturing sectors • Men comprised 69% of SNAP recipients with manufacturing job history, 93% of those with construction job history DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  8. Poor in Great Recession • Two years later, how has the recession changed the composition of the SNAP caseload? • Compared two snapshot populations: June 2006 and June 2011 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  9. Caseload change – working age adults DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  10. Demographic measures DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  11. Household composition DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  12. Work history DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  13. Single-person households DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  14. Single-person households, 18 to 24 DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  15. Young adults • 18 to 24 year olds were part of a baby-boomletthat occurred between 1987 and 1993 • This cohort is coming of age during a period of high unemployment • Potential long-term consequences DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

  16. Poor in Great Recession • Early in the recession, the story was job loss • That story has changed to joblessness • Males & young adults have been particularly affected DHS Office of Forecasting, Research & Analysis

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