Northwest power pool reliability update
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NORTHWEST POWER POOL Reliability Update. May 10, 2012 Jerry D. Rust. Reliability Update Facts and Figures Since my last visit. Lowest recoded Water Year – 1977 @50% of normal* Highest recoded Water Year – 1997 @148% of normal* 2 nd Lowest recoded Water Year – [email protected]% of normal*

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NORTHWEST POWER POOL Reliability Update

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Northwest power pool reliability update

NORTHWEST POWER POOLReliability Update

May 10, 2012

Jerry D. Rust


Reliability update facts and figures since my last visit

Reliability UpdateFacts and Figures Since my last visit

  • Lowest recoded Water Year – 1977 @50% of normal*

  • Highest recoded Water Year – 1997 @148% of normal*

  • 2nd Lowest recoded Water Year – [email protected]% of normal*

  • Enron is gone

  • August 14, 2003 East Coast Outage

  • US Energy Policy Act of 2005

  • Major Recession

  • Last Western Interconnection Outage to impact the Northwest – 1996

    * 30-year Average


Reliability update us reliability legislation

Reliability UpdateUS Reliability Legislation

US Energy Policy Act of 2005

  • Electric Reliability Organization (ERO) Formation – FERC Jurisdictional

  • ERO can impose penalties on an owner, operator or user of the bulk power system who violates a reliability Standard

  • ERO operational January 2007

  • Penalties can be as high as $1,000,000 per incident per day

  • Over 100 Reliability Standards with over 2,000 incidents


Reliability update february 2008 outage florida

Reliability UpdateFebruary 2008 Outage - Florida

Initial Findings – potential fine of $35 billion

Final Findings - $25 million fine ($10 million US Treasury, $10 million to offset the cost of the Reliability Standards program, $5million into the electric system to fix the problem)


Reliability update where are we today

Reliability UpdateWhere are We today

What impacts Reliability?

  • Load

  • Generation

  • Economy

  • Weather

  • Constraints – the ability to deliver generation to load (transmission)


Western interconnection reserve sharing groups

Western Interconnection Reserve Sharing Groups

NWPP

RMPP

CAMX

AZNM

Northwest Power Pool (NWPP RSG)

Alberta Electric System Operator

Avista Corporation

Balancing Authority of Northern California

Bonneville Power Administration

British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

Chelan County PUD

Douglas County PUD

Grant County PUD

Idaho Power Company

NaturEner Power Watch – Wind Energy

Northwestern Energy

PacifiCorp-East

PacifiCorp-West

Portland General Electric Company

Puget Sound Energy

Seattle City Light

Sierra Pacific Power Company

Tacoma Power

Turlock Irrigation District

Western Area Power Administration – UGP

Rocky Mountain (RMSG)

Public Service Company of Colorado

Western Area Power Administration – CM

Desert Southwest (SRSG)

Arizona Public Service Company

CECD – Arlington Valley

CECD – Griffith

CECD – Harquahala

CECD – Panda Gila River

El Paso Electric Company

Imperial Irrigation District

Nevada Power Company

Public Service Company of New Mexico

Salt River Project

Tucson Electric Power Company

Western Area Power Administration – LCD

Independent Balancing Authorities

California Independent System Operator

Comision Federal de Electicidad

Los Angeles Department of Water and Power


Nwpp coincidental peak load

NWPP Coincidental Peak Load


Reliability update columbia river runoff

Reliability UpdateCOLUMBIA RIVER RUNOFF

January through July volume runoff

measured at The Dalles Dam

201220112010

113% (Estimated)133% (Actual) 79% (Actual)

30-year Average


Reliability update unknown issues to watch

Reliability UpdateUNKNOWN ISSUES TO WATCH

  • Extreme Weather Conditions, Summer Every 1F above normal increases Peak Demand by 300 MW

  • Precipitation – Below normal precipitation impacts the future energy availability

  • Economic Conditions – Recovery of the economy or further decline impacts load (~3 to 4,000 MW)


Participating balancing authority

Participating Balancing Authority

The NWPP Reserve Sharing Group includes all the Participating Balancing Authorities in the NWPP membership region:

  • Avista

  • Alberta Electric System Operator

  • Balancing Authority of Northern California

  • Bonneville Transmission

  • British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority

  • Chelan PUD

  • Douglas PUD

  • Grant PUD

  • Idaho Power

  • NaturEner Power Watch – Wind Energy

  • NorthWestern Energy

  • PacifiCorp West

  • PacifiCorp East

  • Portland General Electric

  • Puget Sound Energy

  • Seattle City Light

  • Sierra Pacific Power

  • Tacoma Power

  • Turlock Irrigation District

  • Western Area Power Administration Upper Great Plains


Balancing authority loads at nwpp peak 57 500 mw 2011

Balancing Authority Loads at NWPP Peak ~ 57,500 MW (2011)

  • Avista ~ 1,870 MW

  • Alberta Electric System Operator ~9,400 MW

  • Balancing Authority of Northern California

  • ~ 3,720 MW

  • Bonneville Transmission

  • ~ 7,240 MW

  • British Columbia Hydro & Power Authority ~ 7,320MW

  • Chelan PUD ~ 470 MW

  • Douglas PUD ~ 200 MW

  • Grant PUD ~ 680 MW

  • Idaho Power ~ 3,090

  • NaturEner Power Watch – Wind Energy

  • ~ 0 MW

  • NorthWestern Energy ~ 1,580 MW

  • PacifiCorp West ~ 3,230 MW

  • PacifiCorp East ~ 7,820 MW

  • (Total ~ 11,050 MW)

  • Portland General Electric ~ 3,270 MW

  • Puget Sound Energy ~3,120 MW

  • Seattle City Light ~ 1,270 MW

  • Sierra Pacific Power ~1,860 MW

  • Tacoma Power ~ 470MW

  • Turlock Irrigation District ~ 550 MW

  • Western Area Power Administration Upper Great Plains ~ 100 MW


Reserve sharing zones

Reserve Sharing Zones


Nwpp reserve sharing zones

NWPP Reserve Sharing Zones

  • Six Zones:

    • AESO

    • BCHA

    • IPC

    • SPP/PACE

    • NW / Montana (AVA, BPA, CHPD, DOPD, GCPD, GWA, NWMT, PACW, PGE, PSE, SCL, TPWR, WAUW)

    • Northern California (BANC, TID)

  • Seven Monitored Paths:

    • AESO – BCTC (Path 1)

    • BCHA – NW/Montana

    • PACE – IPC (Path C 20)

    • SPP – IPC (Path 16)

    • IPC – NW/Montana (Most restrictive Import / Export limits of NW – Idaho (Path 14) and Brownlee East (Path 55) )

    • COI (Path 66)


Nwpp contingency reserve requirement

NWPP Contingency Reserve Requirement

MSSC or 5% Load Responsibility served by hydro-generation plus 7% Load Responsibility served by thermal generation plus 5% Load Responsibility served by wind

  • MSSC range 800 to 1,500 MW

  • 5/5/7% on average range 2,500 to 3,600 MW


Reliability update extreme weather

Reliability UpdateExtreme Weather

Capacity Available

Load (MW)Resources (MW)

Peak MW58,000~100,000

Wind MW 10,000

Extr. Weather 3,000

Op. Reserve Req. 4,000 _______

Sub-Total65,000 91,000

Sustainability 7,000

_______ _______

Total65,000 84,000

Excludes any contribution from wind on peak


Nwpp area wind

NWPP Area Wind

6-1-2010 6,671 MW

1-31-2011 7,807 MW

7-31-2011 7,953 MW

1-31-2012 8,594 MW

7-31-2012 10,600 MW forecasted

1-31-2012 11,884 MW forecasted

7-31-2013 12,822 MW forecasted

1-31-2013 14,789 MW forecasted

16


Reliability update today s overall expectations

Reliability Update TODAY’S OVERALL EXPECTATIONS

The area represented by the Northwest Power Pool is estimated to be able to meet firm loads, including the required reserve, for the 2012 summer operating season


Northwest power pool reliability update

QUESTIONS?


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