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Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris. Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future July 27, 2003 Paris Dr. Werner Zittel, L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Germany. - Development over the past decade and trend extrapolations - Renewables and transport sector.

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Contribution to ASPO-Workshop 2003, Paris

Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future

July 27, 2003 Paris

Dr. Werner Zittel, L-B-Systemtechnik GmbH, Germany

- Development over the past decade and trend extrapolations

- Renewables and transport sector


Renewable Energy in Europe - past and Future

  • Most official energy forecasts extrapolate „business as usual scenarios“

  • If no structural problem in conventional energy supply is perceived, there is no need

  • to change to renewable fuels

  • Under present economic conditions renewable energy sources are uneconomic or marginally economic (neglecting external costs and subsidies of fossil and nuclear fuels)

  • However, if climate change is a real issue, if nuclear has serious problems and if

  • oil becomes a scarce commodity, economic conditions will change in favor of renewable energy technologies


Renewables and the Energy Sector - a different view

  • If oil production will peak soon, this will have serious consequences on

  • economy and energy prices

  • In contrast to 1980, energy efficiency as well as renewable energy is at

  • a much more sophisticated technological and economic level

  • which allows for market introduction on a broad scale

  • The future will show which perspective is closer to reality: The IEA-forecast or the LBST-forecast! It is not unlikely that future energy supply develops as seen by LBST:


Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view!

2020: IEA

TPES 13500

oil 39 %

gas 26 %

coal 25 %

nuclear 5 %

solar 5 %

90 Mbpd

80 Mbpd

75 Mbpd


Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view!

2020: IEA

TPES 13500

oil 39 %

gas 26 %

coal 25 %

nuclear 5 %

solar 5 %

90 Mbpd

80 Mbpd

75 Mbpd

: BP Statistical Review of World Energy


Renewables and the Energy Sector - a differentl view!

2020: IEA LBST

TPES 13500 12500

oil 39 % 25 %

gas 26 % 33 %

coal 25 % 14 %

nuclear 5 % 5%

solar 5 % 23 %

90 Mbpd

80 Mbpd

75 Mbpd

coal

: BP Statistical Review of World Energy

: LBST most likely forecast


EU-15: Electricity from hydro power

GWhel

EU-Electricity Production

2002: ~ 2500 TWh

~12 % of

OECD Energy balances

Change of

statistical base


EU-15: Electricity from hydro power - adapted

GWhel

EU-Electricity Production

2002: ~ 2500 TWh

~12 % of

Statistics

unclear

OECD Energy balances

Change of

statistical base (corrected)


EU-15 Electricity Production from Wind energy

  • In the 1980ies, Denmark started to establish a wind energy industry

  • Today the Danish wind energy industry has more employees than the

  • ship building industry

  • In the 1990ies, Germany supported the wind energy industry by feed-in rules [Renewable Energy Act] which gave marginal earnings (at favorable sites and with good planning the return on investment is reasonable, at poor sites or with poor management the return on investment is negative)

  • Most European Countries have not yet even started to use its wind energy potentials

  • Even under „poor“ economic conditions wind energy has growth rates at about

  • 40 percent p.y. since more than a decade. Already today the share of wind energy in electricity generation is above 1.5 %.

  • As soon as even pure market economics are in favor of wind energy, the growth

  • rates could enhance and swap over to those countries with vast resources


EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power

GWhel

~1.6 % of

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 40 % p.y.

Capacity statistics from EWEA

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power

GWhel

~1.6 % of

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 40 % p.y.

Capacity statistics from EWEA

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power

GWhel

~1.6 % of

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 40 % p.y.

Capacity statistics from EWEA

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15: Successful market introduction of wind power

GWhel

Equivalent to

oil field with 200 kb/day

or 1.4 Gb size

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 40 % p.y.

Capacity statistics from EWEA

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15: How much wind energy is it?

  • In 2002 Europe added wind capacity which was five times as much as that of an average nuclear plant.

  • The electricity generated in 2002 will be equal to that of five nuclear power plants

  • If this amount would be produced from oil fired power plants, it would consume 75 mio barrel/year or 200 kb/day.

  • Over 20 years life time this saves about 1.5 Gb of oil

  • Planning times of new wind parks are in the range of 2 - 3 years before grid connection is achieved

  • Within the last ten years 40 TWh/yr electricity from wind are added. This is equivalent to the planning, construction and connection of five large nuclear power plants. Would it be possible, to add five nuclear power plants within ten years (including planning, construction and grid connection)?


EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast

  • If 2002 would mark the peak year of new wind capacity additions and the decline would be symmetric to the growth, then wind energy in Europe would end up with about 4 percent share on electricity production

  • The European Wind Energy Association expects wind energy to contribute

  • about 5 % of EU-15 electricity supply until 2010 and above 10 percent until 2020. This is equivalent to 16 % annual growth

  • The actual growth rate is even twice as much (35 % p.y.)



EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast

MW

If present growth continues

35 % p.a.


EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast

MW

35 % p.a.

EWEA-

Target

2000

Onshore

offshore


EU 15 - Electricity Production from Wind Energy - Forecast

MW

35 % p.a.

EWEA-

Target

2000

Share on EU-Electricity

Production 5 %

Onshore

offshore

16 % p.a.


Worldwide wind energy capacity

  • Forecasts by the IEA for oil, gas or nuclear energy were always much too optimistic Forecasts by the IEA for renewable energy are always bullish pessimistic

  • The IEA World Energy Outlook 1998 forecast for the year 2010 could be proofed to be wrong almost three years after its publication

  • With respect to the IEA world energy outlook 2002 forecast even at end 2002 reality was about five years ahead of the forecast

  • In 1999 BTM consult published a road map for achieving a share of 10 percent on world electricity production in 2020 by wind energy. („Windforce ten“) Already in 2002 the reality is ahead of that road map


Worldwide wind energy capacity

GW

Reality 1997

IEA World

Energy Outlook 1998


Worldwide wind energy capacity

GW

Reality 1999

IEA World

Energy Outlook 1998


Worldwide wind energy capacity

GW

Windforce 10 (2020

10 % electricity share)

[1999]

Reality 1999

IEA World

Energy Outlook 1998


Worldwide wind energy capacity

GW

Windforce 10 (2020

10 % electricity share)

[1999]

IEA World

Energy Outlook

2002

Reality 1999

IEA World

Energy Outlook 1998


Worldwide wind energy capacity

GW

Windforce 10 (2020

10 % electricity share)

[1999]

IEA World

Energy Outlook

2002

1% share of

electricity production

Reality 2002

IEA World

Energy Outlook 1998


EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass

  • Sweden, Finland and Austria have the largest share of biomass in

  • electricity production

  • The growth rate in Finland was about 10 % annually

  • The share of biomass in electricity generation is about 1.1 percent

  • In latest years biomass gasification helped to increase the share


EU-15: Successful market introduction of Biomass

GWhel

~1.1 % of

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

UK

Sweden

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 10 % p.y.

Germany

Finland

Austria

Source: 1989-2000 OECD Statistics 2002

2001/2002 various country statistics from national instituts

and own estimates


Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 %

EU-15 Electricity Production from Biomass - Forecast

GWhel

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

20 % p.y.

10 % p.y.

7 % p.y.

Growth Rate 1990-2000:

~ 10 % p/yr


EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics

  • The growth of PV was largest in Germany over the last decade (~ 30 %) Since the existence of the feed-in law in 1999 the growth rate increased strongly

  • Today, installed PV capacity in Germany is at the same level as wind energy was

  • ten years ago

  • The costs of grid connected PV systems have reduced by a factor of three over the

  • last 15 years and today are close to 0.6 EUR/kWh in middle Europe. Since the introduction of the German feed in law in 1999 total cost of grid connected PV reduced by about 15 percent or 5 percent annualy.

  • Presently, BP alone employs more than 1000 employees in the PV business


EU-15: Beginning market introduction of photovoltaics

GWhel

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

20 % p.a.

PV-Share on Electricity Production

in 2002: ~ 0,012 %

30 % p.a.

Growth Rate 1991-2000:

~ 20-30 % p.a.

Germany

Capacity statistics from various statistical sources

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast

  • BP expects to reduce costs by another factor of two within next five years

  • Shell expects annual cost reductions by 5 - 6 percent

  • RWE Schott Solar expects 15-18 percent cost reduction with each doubling of production volume.

  • Swiss bank Sarassin expects the growth rate of PV to increase substantially over

  • the next few years (comparable to the cellular phone or PC market in the last years)

  • If the growth rate over the next ten years is the same as the growth rate of wind

  • energy over the past ten years, PV will contribute more than 1 percent to

  • EU electricity in 2010


Share on EU-Electricity Production 1 %

EU-15 Electricity Production from Photovoltaics - Forecast

GWhel

50 % p.a.

40 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Share on EU-Electricity Production 5 %

30 % p.a.

Growth Rate 1991-2000:

~ 20-30 % p.a.

20 % p.a.


Cum. Photovoltaics worldwide 2002

MW

Substitutes 30 kb/day

oil sources

or 300 Mb

field size

BRD

VdEW 95

world

Jahr

Quelle: WWI 1993; Sonnenergie & Wärmetechnik 1/98, Photon 1/98


EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy

  • Electricity production from geothermal grew about 3 percent annually

  • Today only Portugal, France and Italy use geothermal electricity

  • New methods (e.g. hot-dry rock; ORC electricity generation) open a huge

  • potential for electricity generation

  • The Geothermal Society expects electricity generation from geothermal

  • sources at 16 TWh in 2010 and between 24 - 64 TWh in 2020 (Ferrara-

  • Declaration 1999)


EU-15 Electricity Production from Geothermal Energy

GWhel

5 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

3 % p.a.

Geothermal-Share on

Electricity Production 2000: ~ 0,17 %

Growth Rate 1991-2000:

~ 3 % p.a.

Portugal Growth Rate

1991-1998: ~ 30 % p.a.

Italy


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables 2002

TWh/yr

~16 % share of electricity consumption


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables

  • Today Renewable Electricity supply has a share of 14 - 15 percent

  • If present trends continue for the next 20 years, this share will increase

  • to more than 20 percent in 2010 and to more than 50 percent in 2020

  • (provided total electricity supply will remain constant; note that this holds even when hydro is kept constant and when wind energy will rise at half of

  • its historical growth rate)

  • If trends of „best practice countries“ apply to all EU countries this share could rise even faster


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios

TWhel

Biomass 7 % p.a.

Precautious Trend extrapolation

Market introduction

of wind power

Wind 17 % p.a.

TWhel

Solar 30 %p.a.

Geothermal 3 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Biomass 10 % p.a.

Wind 20 % p.a.

Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries

Solar 40 %p.a.

Geothermal 30 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios

TWhel

Biomass 7 % p.a.

Precautious Trend extrapolation

Market penetration

of wind power

Market introduction

of wind power

Wind 17 % p.a.

TWhel

Solar 30 %p.a.

Geothermal 3 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Biomass 10 % p.a.

Wind 20 % p.a.

Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries

Solar 40 %p.a.

Geothermal 30 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios

TWhel

Biomass 7 % p.a.

Precautious Trend extrapolation

Market penetration

of wind power and biomass

Market introduction

of wind power

Wind 17 % p.a.

TWhel

Solar 30 %p.a.

Geothermal 3 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Biomass 10 % p.a.

Wind 20 % p.a.

Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries

Solar 40 %p.a.

Geothermal 30 %p.a.

Market introduction

of solar electricity

Hydro 0 % p.a.


EU-15 Electricity Production from All Renewables - Two scenarios

TWhel

Biomass 7 % p.a.

Precautious Trend extrapolation

Market penetration

of wind power and biomass

Market introduction

of wind power

Wind 17 % p.a.

TWhel

Solar 30 %p.a.

Geothermal 3 %p.a.

Hydro 0 % p.a.

EU-Electricity Production 2002: ~ 2500 TWh

Biomass 10 % p.a.

Wind 20 % p.a.

Optimistic Trend extrapolation from „best practice“ countries

Market penetration of

solar and geothermal

electricity ?

Solar 40 %p.a.

Geothermal 30 %p.a.

Market introduction

of solar electricity

Hydro 0 % p.a.


EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass scenarios

  • Contribution of biomass to thermal energy supply is about 6 %.

  • The annual growth rate varies between 2 - 5 percent annually

  • At present growth rate this could increase to 10-20 percent in 2020


EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Biomass scenarios

GWhth

10 % p.a.

Growth Rate

Thermal End Use Energy Demand 2000:

~ 6000 TWh

5 % p.a.

Growth Rate

Share on EU Themal

Energy Demand 10 %

2 % p.a.

Growth Rate

Growth Rate 1991-1998:

~ 2 % p.a.

~0.77 Mb/day


EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy scenarios

  • Average growth rate of Solar thermal energy use is about 10 % annually

  • In Greece Solar thermal energy has a much higher share

  • than in Italy, Portugal or Spain with comparable

  • solar isolation. This is mainly due to different political support

  • The contribution in 2020 could rise to between 0.5 - 3 % if present trends continue (lower figure 10 % annual growth rate, upper figure 20 % annually)


EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy scenarios

GWhth

Thermal End Use Energy Demand EU 2000:

~ 6000 TWh

Solar Share on Thermal End Use Energy

Supply 2002: ~ 0,095 %

~10 kb/day

Growth Rate 1991-2000:

~ 10 % p.a.

2002-Zahlen: LBST-Schätzung mit BRD-Zahlen aus SW&T1/02

Capacity statistics from various statistical sources

energy production: LBST-calculation


EU-15 Thermal End Use Energy Supply by Solar Energy scenarios

GWhth

Thermal End Use Energy Demand EU 2000:

~ 6000 TWh

Solar Share on Thermal End Use Energy

Supply 2002: ~ 0,095 %

~10 kb/day

Greece

Growth Rate 1991-2000:

~ 10 % p.a.

Growth Rate in Germany

1991-2000: ~ 20 % p.a.

Growth Rate in Austria

1991-2000: 15 % p.a.

2002-Zahlen: LBST-Schätzung mit BRD-Zahlen aus SW&T1/02

Capacity statistics from various statistical sources

energy production: LBST-calculation


The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community scenarios

  • At the present growth rate, renewable energy will rise to a share of about 10 percent of thermal energy use in 2020

  • At growth rates applicable to „best practice“ countries the share could rise to about 20 - 25 %

  • On the other hand: Thermal energy is mainly used in buildings

  • where in general the highest potential for increased efficiency exists


The Potential of Renewable Energy in the European Community scenarios

EU-thermal energy demand 2002:

~ 6000 TWh

Biomass 2 % p.a.

TWh th

Solar 15 %p.a.

Geothermal 3 %p.a.

Biomasse 5% p.a.

Solar 20 %p.a.

Geothermal 10 % p.a.


EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence scenarios

  • The industry learned from the 1970ies oil crises

  • to reduce its energy consumption

  • Only the transport sector grew steadily over the last 40 years

  • The share of electricity on final energy supply is rising

  • The transport sector is most vulnerable to oil supply disruptions

  • The whole industry depends on cheap transport („just in time“ is

  • cheaper than large store houses)


EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence scenarios

Mtoe

Source: OECD

renewable

other

electricity

oil

other

Industry

transport

electricity

Transport

Industry

Other

Source: Energy Balances of OECD Countries


EU-15 End use energy requirement and oil dependence scenarios

Mtoe

Source: OECD

renewable

other

electricity

oil

other

Industry

transport

electricity

-1.5 % p.yr.

Transport (only Germany)

Transport

Industry

Other

Source: Energy Balances of OECD Countries


EU- oil consumption in Transport and scenario for future reductions

  • Assumption:

  • Each year ten percent of cars are replaced

  • The average fuel consumption of new cars reduces by x percent with respect to the preceeding year

  • In Germany the average fuel consumption of all passenger cars

  • grew from 8.1 l/100km in 1960 to ~10 l/100km in 1975; it was

  • almost constant until 1985 and reduced to 9.4 l/100 km in 1990

  • and to ~8.5 l/100 km in 2000. However most of this was offset by

  • higher traveling volumes.


EU- oil consumption in Transport and scenario for future reductions

Mto

Fuel consumption of new cars

in 2020 with respect to 2000

fuel consumption

X=0.5 %

90 %

Oil consumption

of Traffic

Assumptions

- Average life time of cars 10 years

- each year fossil fuel consumption

of all new cars decreases by x %


EU- oil consumption in Transport and scenario for future reductions

Mto

Fuel consumption of new cars

in 2020 with respect to 2000

fuel consumption

X=0.5 %

90 %

Oil consumption

of Traffic

X=1 %

82 %

X=2 %

X=5 %

67 %

Assumptions

- Average life time of cars 10 years

- each year fossil fuel consumption

of all new cars decreases by x %

37 %


Transport oil consumption: USA / Germany reductions

Mtoe / Germany

Mtoe / USA

German

unification

-1.5 % p.yr.

Germany

USA

1st gulf war

Oil crisis

year

Source: OECD-Statistics

since 2000: USA-DoE; Germany- MWV (2003 data extrapolated from January-April)


Technical Potentials of Renewable Energy Sou reductionsrces in the EU

  • The potential for biomass includes only biogenic waste, residues and sludge

  • The wind power potential minimum includes offshore sites up to 10 km distance from cost line and 10 m water depth

  • The wind power potential maximum includes offshore sites up to 30 km

  • distance from cost line and 30 m water depth

  • The PV potential minimum includes only roof mounted solar cells

  • The PV potential maximum includes facade mounted modules

  • The Solar Thermal potential includes only sites south of 40 °


Technical Potentials of Renewable Energy Sources in the EU reductions

(Biomass: Thermal Energy; Hydro Power, Wind, PV und SOT: Electric Energy)

EU Electricity Consumption 2002: 2.478 TWh

(Source: IEA 2002)

TWh/a

Upper Value

Wind offshore

Technological

Progress

Lower Value

Roof mounted

+ house fronts

with todays

technology

Straw Residue

Agriculture

Wood Residues, other

Roof mounted

Forest Residue

Industrial

Wood Res.

Bio Waste

Wind onshore

*

**

Biogas

(Methane)

Biomass

Wind Power

PV

conventional

Tidal Power

* still to tap potential in the EU

** only EU

Sludge


Future fuels for cars reductions

Future Challanges: - reduction of demand

- change of mode (modal split)

- downsizing of cars

- hybrid vehicles

- switch to renewable fuel

Renewable Fuel: - hydrogen

- electricity

- Biofuels


Technical Potentials: Fuels derived from Biomass in the EU - range

TWh/a

Potentials show possible alternatives and cannot be added.

Available area for cultivation of energy plants in the EU: 3,3 - 26,4 Mio ha

Rail Transport

Inland Navigation

Aviation

Road Transport

Cultivation (fast growing plants)

Wood and Straw Residues

Via Biogas

(Transport)

1998 *

Biogas

(Methane)

Methanol

Synfuel

Plant Oil

Ethanol from

Lignocellulose

Hydrogen

(pressurized)

*Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998


Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Biomass in the EU - range

  • Comments on the available area for cultivation for the growing of energy plants:

  • The upper value (26.4 Mio ha) assumes an increased intensification of agricultural production (FfE 1998).

  • A further intensification of agricultural production is not sustainable. Therefore the EU aims at extensification.

  • Oil plants: The share of rape seed may not exceeed 25% within the rotation cycle of a given crop. With biological agriculture method this limit is lower.

  • An assignment of 26.4 Mio ha to the growing of energy plants would represent 30% of the arable land in the EU

  • The area not cultivated (laid off) at present has a size of about 7.2 Mio ha (FfE 1998).


Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Biomass in the EU - probable

TWh/a

Potentials show possible alternatives and cannot be added.

Cultivable area for energy plants in the EU: 7.2 Mio ha

Rail transport

Inland navigation

Aviation

Road transport

Cultivation (fast growing plants)

Wood and straw residues

Via Biogas

(Transport)

1998 *

Biogas

(Methane)

Methanol

Synfuel

Plant Oil

Ethanol from

Lignocellulose

Hydrogen

(pressurized)

*Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998


Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Renewable Electricity (EU)

Warning: The following technical potential does not take care of

alternative use of the renewable source.


Technical Potentials: Fuels Derived from Renewable Electricity (EU)

Solar thermal

power stations 3)

Rail transport

Inland navigation

PV (+new technology)

Aviation

PV (+house fronts)

Road transport

PV (roofs)

Wind off-shore

Wind on-shore

Consumption

(Transport)

1998 1)

CGH2

Methanol

LH2

Hydro power2)

1) Source: IEA-Statistics 1997-1998

2) still to tap potential

3) within the EU




Fuel Costs and GHG Emissions of Compressed Gaseous Hydrogen (EU)

gasoline

/

diesel

300

without

With tax

[g/kWh]

200

equivalent

-

2

CO

100

CGH

from

...

2

Windpower

Biomass

Solarthermal

offshore

Hydro

0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

Source: LBST, 2001

0

1

2

3

4

Costs

[EUR/

l

]

gasoline equivalent




Hydrogen filling stations in Europe (EU)

CEP Berlin

LH2 and

70 MPa CGH2

Summer 2003

H2 Vehicle Demonstration at Munich Airport

[Source: H2MUC 1999]

Mainz, 70 MPa, by Linde,

April 2003

BVG/TFE Berlin LH2and 25 MPa CGH2

Reykjavik, April 2003

Oct 2002


Hydrogen fuel consumption for Transport - Europe (EU)

Boe/day

Spring 2003: 19 fueling stations

Spring 2004 27 fueling stations


Summary (EU)

  • The growth of renewables in Europe was different in all countries due to

  • different political support

  • Simple trend extrapolation exhibits that at present growth rates

  • about 20 percent of electricity will be renewable in 2010.

  • This share would rise to about 50 percent in 2020

  • Even in countries supporting renewables they are still close to

  • „being marginally economic“. As soon as market economics change (e.g. by passing oil peak production) the growth rates could enhance

  • The potential is sufficient to ensure a 100 percent renewable energy supply

  • The transport sector will be hit strongest by oil scarcity. Introduction of

  • new fuels is most urgent but also most difficult here

  • The future will show which growth rates will be realised and which energy

  • mix will be achieved

  • Detailed strategies exist how to substitute fossil and nuclear fuels completely

  • by 2050 [e.g. EU financed LTI-Study 1998]


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