The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry

1. The LULUCF sector: land use, land-use change and forestry Ian McCallum International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

2. LULUCF options considered Conservation, prevent emissions from existing carbon pools, e.g., avoided deforestation 2. Sequestration, increase stocks in existing carbon pools, e.g., reduced tillage (CO2), longer rotations (FM), afforestation on agricultural land 3. Substitution, substitute fossil fuel products with renewables, e.g., sustainable bioenergy: ethanol, biodiesel, fuel for combustion

3. LULUCF mitigation model tree P Mitigation Scenarios POP, GDP, Energy demand LAND USE Trade and competition between regions,, market feedbacks (affor, deforbioenergy) Opportunity costs Production costs AGRICULTURE Crop production, environmental factors FORESTS Forest biomass harvest, supply Age, etc. Geographically explicit data Global aggregated databases:

4. Baseline construction and calibratione.g. afforestation, deforestation Reported 2005 Baseline in 2020 Tg CO2 UNFCCC 2008

5. Marginal abatement curves:Afforestation until 2020 Afforestation $/tonne CO2 Percent of 1990 total emissions

6. Marginal abatement curves:Deforestation until 2020 $/tonne CO2 Percent of 1990 total emissions

7. Marginal abatement curve:Forest management until 2020 $/tonne CO2 Percent of 1990 total emissions

8. Limitations and caveats Data issues Global land cover, NPP Forest inventories Global statistics on forests, products, etc. Baseline assumptions Forest management, deforestation Not all countries reporting Market Market feedbacks are included for Afforestation & Deforestation Forest management: costs expected to rise in case of timber shortage

9. Summary Work in progress Mitigation potentials for Afforestation & Deforestation < 1%, Forest Management < 5% of 1990 emissions, until 2020 (preliminary results) Large uncertainties specific to the biosphere