How does climate change affect farmers businesses
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How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses? PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?. Direct impacts of climate change Indirect impacts via policy and market responses Conclusions : what’s new for farm businesses to adjust to climate change. Direct impacts. Climate change is already compromising agriculture.

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How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?

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How does climate change affect farmers businesses

How does climate change affect farmers’ businesses?

  • Direct impacts of climate change

  • Indirect impacts via policy and market responses

  • Conclusions:what’s new for farmbusinesses to adjust to climate change


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

Direct impacts


Climate change is already compromising agriculture

Climate change is already compromising agriculture

Lobell et al. 2011

Science


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

4 degrees by 2100 is likely


E g africa shorter growing seasons anticipated

e.g. Africa: shorter growing seasons anticipated

Length of growing period (%)

More frequent, more intense extreme weather events: droughts, floods, cyclones

>20% loss

5-20% loss

No change

5-20% gain

>20% gain

To 2090, taking 14 climate models

Four degree rise

Thornton et al. 2010


The noughties a decade of record breaking extreme weather events

The noughties: a decade of record-breaking extreme weather events

Coumou & Rahmstorf 2012

Nature Climate Change


Not bad news everywhere but complex

Not bad news everywhere… but complex!

  • Key unknowns for farming:

  • pests and diseases

  • district- & farm-level climate changes

  • potential for adaptation to overcome impacts


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

Indirect impacts


Agriculture s recent journey

Agriculture’s recent journey

First time agriculture officially on the agenda

Ag negotiating text ‘ready’ but goes nowhere


More progress at national level

More progress at national level?

Adaptation: technologies, institutions, finance, incentives for farmers

Mitigation: technologies, institutions, finance, targets, markets

Mexico 2012: 50% by 2050

UK 2008: 80% by 2050


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

Food systems contributes 19-29% GHGs

Vermeulen et al. 2012

Annual Review of Environment and Resources (in press)


Soil land management key to agricultural mitigation

Soil & land management key to agricultural mitigation

Smith et al. 2007 IPCC


But are carbon markets a good deal for farmers

But are carbon markets a good deal for farmers?

Claims:

US$4.8 billion global market (assuming $18/tonne)

US$1.5 billion in Sub-Saharan Africa

(almost twice the overseas development assistance for agriculture in the region)

But:

-Weak market: $1.03/t

-Social justice issues:

distract from agricultural

development & adaptation needs

Analysis of Wollenberg 2011


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

Conclusions


What is new for farmers businesses

What is new for farmers’ businesses?

  • Near-term: greater emphasis than ever on risk management (weather & climate forecasts; insurance)

  • Horizon-scanning: early action in anticipation of major trends in your region (new varieties, crops & production systems)

  • Opportunity & influence: keep abreast & participate in policy processes, in finance opportunities, in climate-smart agriculture


How does climate change affect farmers businesses

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