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Recommended Strategy for an Integrated National Approach to EE. Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Energy 6 September 2012. Energy Efficiency How are we Doing?. Score Card. SCORE Fact Base - Lacking Objectives - Arbitrary Strategy – None

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Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Recommended Strategy for an Integrated National Approach to EE

Presentation to the Parliamentary Portfolio Committee on Energy

6 September 2012


Energy efficiency how are we doing

Energy EfficiencyHow are we Doing?

Score Card

SCORE

Fact Base - Lacking

Objectives - Arbitrary

Strategy – None

Implementation – Ad - Hoc


Contents

Contents

  • Status:

    • Fact Base

    • Objectives

    • Strategy

    • Implementation

  • Solution


Growth economic jobs requires more energy

Growth: Economic & Jobs Requires more energy

Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040


Improved standard of living requires more energy

Improved Standard of Living - Requires more energy

Source: ExxonMobil Outlook to 2040


Changing energy mix

Changing Energy Mix


Rsa usage per sector energy demand

RSA - Usage per sector Energy & Demand

Sources: Frost & Sullivan & Eskom


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Myth Busting - “Industry is inefficient due to low electricity prices”.Industry have for a long time been working hard to reduce their energy intensity & will continue to do so


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Cost viz Potential: Setting Priorities


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Need a Framework for Analysing Opportunity Specific Barriers


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

An example of “Addressing the barriers” in High Income Housing


Must determine potential probable doable most likely without serious economic impact

5

Must Determine Potential: Probable, Doable & Most LikelyWithout serious economic Impact

BACK UP


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Residential and commercial: Potential savings levers and initiativesWithout serious economic Impact


Bottom up fact base required detail required for residential sector

Bottom Up Fact Base Required Detail required for residential sector

household consumption(% contribution per end use)

electricity consumption (% annual consumption)

17

83

kitchen appliances (cooking, laundry and cool storage)

lighting

residential

all other sectors

28

18

4

other

water heating

losses

maximum demand(% maximum demand)

35

65

30

15

5

residential

all other sectors

(Source: DSM Sector Analysis, 2007. Residential demand: 13,908MW, Residential consumption: 46,402 GWh)


And then by sector type technologies and end uses varies across market segments

And then by sector Type technologies and end uses varies across market segments

Market segment 2(~58% of households)

Market segment 3 (~21% of households)

Market segment 1 (~21% of households)

LSM 8 – 10(number of appliances)

LSM 4 - 7(number of appliances)

6.8 m

44.4 m

54.1 m

1.8 m

5.5 m

10.7 m

LSM 1 – 3(number of appliances)

0.2 m

3.2 m

4.1 m

-

0.8 m

0.09 m

0.9 m

5.0 m

6.5 m

-

2.4

1.2 m

3.2 m

11.2 m

22.1 m

0.1 m

2.4 m

2.4 m

lighting

televisions

Kitchen appliances

Motors

geysers

Pool pumps

Fans

HVAC (heating and cooling)

(Source: Frost and Sullivan Market Analysis for Residential market 2012


Contents1

Contents

  • Status:

    • Fact Base

    • Objectives

    • Strategy

    • Implementation

  • Solution


Objective setting

Objective Setting

An Iterative Process to find the right target in time

Actual

Consumer

Energy Usage

Compressible over time

Best in Class

Best Known Technology

Not Compressible

Theoretical Best


Contents2

Contents

  • Status:

    • Fact Base

    • Objectives

    • Strategy

    • Implementation

  • Solution


Fact base to implementation in integrated phased approach

Fact Base to ImplementationIn Integrated Phased Approach


Contents3

Contents

  • Status:

    • Fact Base

    • Objectives

    • Strategy

    • Implementation

  • Solution


Ee road map example carbon budgeting

2012

2013

2014

Urgent Next Steps

Jun Aug

Sept Dec

Jan Apr

Jun Aug

Sept Dec

Jan Apr

Jun Aug

Sept Dec

Indicative only Still to be agreed

Project

Plot Base line Emissions 1990 - 2010 and Inventory 2011

Plot the Three Emissions Outlook 2012 to 2050

Flagship Abatement Program

Develop and Agree GHG Data MRV Meta System

Develop National Reporting System (NEIS) "MRV"

Define Regulated Entities (Unique Generic Significant Activities)

Plot Macro Abatement Potential (Top Down)

Develop Sector Abatement Potential (Bottom Up)

Identify Assess Policy Suite Options

Assess and Select Policy Suite Options

Risk Assessments and Plans as Required

Develop South Africa Abatement Potential

Finalise Activity/Sector GHG Allocations

Finalise South Africa’s Draft 1ST Country Budget

1st Pass Country 2050 Scenarios - Transitioning to a Low Carbon Economy

EE Road Map(Example Carbon Budgeting


Contents4

Contents

  • Status:

    • Fact Base

    • Objectives

    • Strategy

    • Implementation

  • Solution


Recommended strategy for an integrated national approach to ee

Simultaneous

Top Down &

Bottom up

Top Down

Country

Base Line

Past Savings

Opportunities

Sector

Base Line

Past Savings

Opportunities

Bottom up

Facility

Base Line

Past Savings

Opportunities

Services

Base Line

Past Savings

Opportunities


Policy integration

Policy Integration

CAMCO: Interaction between EE objectives and wider national development plans


Monitoring and evaluation

Monitoring and Evaluation


Thank you

Thank You


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