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Welcome to the Symposium on Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks November 16, 2011. Space Policy Institute Elliott School of International Affairs George Washington University 1957 E Street, NW Washington, D.C. 20052. Challenges for Government Initiatives.

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Welcome to the Symposium on Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks November 16, 2011

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Welcome to the symposium on space transportation policy and market risks november 16 2011

Welcome to the Symposium on

Space Transportation Policy and Market Risks

November 16, 2011

Space Policy Institute

Elliott School of International Affairs

George Washington University

1957 E Street, NW

Washington, D.C. 20052


Challenges for government initiatives

Challenges for Government Initiatives

  • Costs for on-going conflicts

  • Rise in transfer payments

  • Aging population/health care costs

  • Infrastructure recapitalization

  • Non-State threats: physical, WMD, cyber

  • Global economic turmoil


Past assumptions for launch demand and technical readiness

Past Assumptions for Launch Demand and Technical Readiness


Policy architecture and acquisition decisions determine the space launch industrial base

Policy, Architecture, and Acquisition Decisions Determine the Space Launch Industrial Base

28 (140%)

12

20

(167%)

12

(100%)

20

(56%)

20

20 (100%)

8

16-20

8

(33%)

NASA rate at 4 heavy lift flights per year. Air Force at EELV rate.

Green represents known/estimated production at present.

5

National Aeronautics and Space Administration 2009


Agenda

Agenda

  • Keynote Presentation – the Space Industrial Base

  • Panel 1 – Alternative Market Possibilities

  • Panel 2 – Financial and Market Risks for Space Launch Providers

    Lunch

  • Panel 3 – Public/Private Sector Roles and Responsibilities

  • Panel 4 – Near-term Risks to the Space Launch Industrial Base

  • Panel 5 – International Customers, Competitors and Partners

  • Closing and Summaries

    Reception


National space transportation policy review

National Space Transportation Policy Review

  • NSC-led policy review currently underway

    • Possible release by end of 2011

  • Some likely issues:

    • Human space transportation

      • SLS , MPCV, EELV, New Entrants

    • Criteria for USG use of new launch vehicles

    • Space Industrial base – rocket motors

    • Technology development

    • Interagency coordination – NASA, AF, NRO

    • International cooperation – critical paths?

      • Extension of INKSNA wavier for payments to Russia?


International commercial cooperation

International Commercial Cooperation


Key policy questions

Key Policy Questions

  • What is the relationship of human space transportation to larger U.S. foreign policy, economic, and national security interests?

  • Is there is a need for independent U.S. government human access to space, and if not, the identification of those entities upon which we are willing to depend for such access;

  • Is it in the larger interests of the United States to invite international partnerships in regard to capabilities which are on the so-called “critical path” for common exploration goals; 

  • The degree to and roles in which the U.S. government should foster the development, and embrace the capabilities, of “commercial space” in the furtherance of national goals; 

  • The proper role of NASA in the human expansion into space, and in particular NASA’s disparate functions as 'innovator and technology developer' vs. ‘designer/developer/smart buyer’ of new systems, and ‘system operator’ vs. ‘service customer’.


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