Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa
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Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa. Carl Haub [email protected] Senior Demographer Population Reference Bureau Washington, DC. German Association for the United Nations Berlin, 13 September 2010. World Population. 1900 1.6 Billion. World Population. 2000

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Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Current Population Situation and Prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa

Carl Haub [email protected]

Senior Demographer

Population Reference Bureau

Washington, DC

German Association for the United Nations

Berlin, 13 September 2010

POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU | www.prb.org


World population

World Population

1900

1.6

Billion


World population1

World Population

2000

6.1

Billion


Sub saharan africa s population 1950 to 2050 projected

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population, 1950 to 2050 Projected

Billions

1.8

IF the total fertility rate in 2050 has declined to 2.6 lifetime births per woman, down from 5.2 today.

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.


Population of the world s regions 2010 and 2050 projected

Population of the World’s Regions, 2010 and 2050 Projected

Millions

Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Projected growth of world regional populations 2010 to 2050

Projected Growth of World Regional Populations, 2010 to 2050

Millions

Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Fewer and Fewer Potential Parents = Unprecedented Aging:

Europe by Age and Sex, 2010

Age

Females

Males

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Youthful Population = Large Potential Population Growth:

Sub-Saharan Africa by Age and Sex, 2010

Age

Females

Males

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


Africa s population by region 1950 to 2050 projected

Africa’s Population by Region, 1950 to 2050 Projected

Billions

MiddleAfrica

World Population (in Billions): 1950-2050

SouthernAfrica

Northern Africa

Western Africa

Eastern Africa

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision.


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2010

865 Million

Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Sub-Saharan Africa’s Population by Region, 2050 Projected

1.83 Billion

Population Reference Bureau, 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

The Total Fertility Rate (TFR)GesamtfruchtbarkeitsrateoderZusammengefasste GeburtenzifferoderDurchschnittliche Kinderzahl je Frau

The TFR is the average number of children a woman would bear in her lifetime ifthe birth rate of a particular year were to remain constant.


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

The “Demographic Divide”

The Example of Ethiopia and Germany

EthiopiaGermany

Population 2010 (millions) 85 82

Population 2050 (millions) 174 72

Lifetime Births per Woman 5.4 1.3

Annual Number of Births 3,280,000 648,000

Percent of Population Below Age 15 44 14

Percent of Population Age 65+ 3 20

Life Expectancy at Birth 55 80

Infant Deaths per 1,000 Births 77 3.5

Annual Number of Infant Deaths 250,000 2,250

GNI PPP per capita, 2008 US$ 870 US$ 35,940

2010 World Population Data Sheet


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Population Under Age 15 (Percent)

1980 and 2010

ca. 1980ca. 2010

Western Africa 46 43

Middle Africa 43 46

Eastern Africa 46 44

Northern Africa 44 33

Southern Africa 42 32

India 41 32

China 32 18

1980 and 2010 World Population Data Sheets of the Population Reference Bureau


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

What ARE Population Projections?

  • Population projections are scenarios: “If this happens, then that will happen.”

  • They are not forecasts or predictions.


How are projections made

How Are Projections Made?

  • The commonly-used United Nations Medium Variant projection assumes that birth rates will decline so that all developing countries will eventually average a European-like 1.85 children per woman.

  • That assumption is, in turn, dependent upon the additional assumption that the use of family planning will rise to the same level as that in Europe and North America. The UN is very careful to point that out.


Fertility assumptions the example of uganda

Fertility Assumptions: The Example of Uganda

Children per woman (TFR)

34 Million

152 Million

103 Million

91 Million

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

United Nations, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision and 2010 World Population Data Sheet


Childbearing in sub saharan africa begins at a young age age specific fertility rates 2005 2010

Childbearing in Sub-Saharan Africa Begins at a Young AgeAge-specific Fertility Rates, 2005-2010

Births per 1,000 women in each age group

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, the 2008 Revision


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Fertility Decline in Bangladesh and the United States, 1800 - 2006

Two Very Different Histories

Lifetime children per woman

Population Reference Bureau, NCHS, DHS surveys


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Lifetime children per woman

Circles indicate survey years

Demographic and Health Surveys and Statistics South Africa


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Fertility Decline in Africa as Reported in Surveys - con’t

Lifetime children per woman

Circles indicate survey years

Demographic and Health Surveys, Statistics South Africa, 2007 Ghana Maternal Health Survey

Note: Gray circles indicate a census estimate


How many children do women say is ideal

How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?”

Kenya

Madagascar

Ghana

4.6

4.0

4.8

Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS)

Latest DHS total fertility rate in red


How many children do women say is ideal con t

How Many Children Do Women Say is “Ideal?” – con’t

Niger

Uganda

Zambia

6.5

6.2

7.1

Demographic and Health Surveys

Latest DHS total fertility rate in red


Reported use of modern contraception clinic and supply methods early mid 1990s and most recent

Reported Use of Modern Contraception (Clinic and Supply Methods) Early/mid-1990s and Most Recent

% of Married women, ages 15-49 using a modern method

TFRs=

4.3/3.8

6.1/6.2

6.1/4.8

5.8/4.7

6.9/6.7

5.2/4.0

6.5/6.0

5.7/5.7

6.0/5.7

Demographic and Health Surveys and 2006 Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) of Burkina Faso


Reasons for discontinuation of contraceptive use

Reasons for Discontinuation of Contraceptive Use

Percent of users discontinuing within 12 months

Demographic and Health Surveys


Family planning use by method married in union women ages 15 49

Family Planning Use by Method, Married/in-Union Women, Ages 15-49

Percent using

Demographic and Health Surveys


With how m any living children do women say they wish to stop childbearing

With How Many Living Children Do Women Say They Wish to Stop Childbearing?

Number of children when women who wish to stop childbearing reaches 50 percent

+

+

+

+

TFR=

5.7

7.0

6.6

6.3

6.2

5.7

5.4

6.0

4.0

3.8

4.6

Demographic and Health Surveys


Unmet need for family planning appears to show a desire to space or limit births

“Unmet Need” for Family Planning Appears to Show a Desire to Space or Limit Births

Percent of married/in-union women, ages 15-49

TFR=

6.7

6.1

4.0

5.4

6.6

6.2

6.3

5.7

5.7

7.0

Demographic and Health Surveys


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Demographic and Health Survey


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Database


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

HIV Prevalence Before and After Nationally-representative Surveys Were Taken, Selected Sub-Saharan African Countries, 2003-2006

Percent of adult population

UNAIDS and Demographic and Health Surveys


The human cost of hiv projected impact of hiv aids on population size as projected in 2008

The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2008

Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision


The human cost of hiv projected impact of hiv aids on population size as projected in 2000

The Human Cost of HIV: Projected Impact of HIV/AIDS on Population Size as Projected in 2000

Difference between the UN Medium Variant projection with HIV and without HIV

Millions

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2000 Revision


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Improvements in Infant Mortality, Past and Projected, 1950 - 2050

Deaths under 1 year of age per 1,000 births

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


Survival from birth to age 65 is low in africa 2005 2010 life tables l x function

Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in Africa2005-2010 Life Tables, (lx function)

Percent surviving

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


Survival from birth to age 65 is low in africa projected to 2045 2050 life tables l x function

Survival from Birth to Age 65 Is Low in AfricaProjected to 2045-2050, Life Tables (lx function)

Percent surviving

United Nations Population Division, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision, medium variant


Slow progress on the millennium development goals mdgs

Slow Progress on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs)

(1990)

(2008)

(1990-92)

(2005-07)

Note: Dark line =

2015 MDG Goal

(1990)

(2005)

United Nations, The Millennium Development Goals Report 2010


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

United Nations Population Division, World Population Policies, 2009


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Section 24, National Population Policy for Social Transformation and Sustainable Development, Uganda Population Secretariat, 2008

Fertility

24. Total fertility rate has persistently remained high at 6.9 children per woman in 2001 and 6.7 in 2006. This is mainly due to cultural and religious beliefs and preference for large families as the source of sustenance especially during old

age. This situation has created a large dependent population, and engendered conditions not favourable for women's reproductive health. Urbanisation, education, higher income and improved decision making within the household are associated with reduced fertility.


Current population situation and prospects for sub saharan africa

Thank You!

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