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Frameworks for Valuation

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Frameworks for Valuation

Chapter 8 Summary . Erik Lloyd . April 23, 2007

Part 1:

What drives value & how to create value

- value driven by ability to generate cash flows
- long term growth
- returns on invested capital relative to cost of capital
Part 2:

Step by step guide to analyzing and valuing a company

- First step (ch. 8)- Using DCF approach to value a company

- Discounted Cash Flow models
- Enterprise DCF model
- Economic Profit Model
- Adjusted Present Value (APV) Model
- Equity DCF Model
- There are many ways to apply DCF approach
- Enterprise and Economic discussed in detail
- Both models provide the same value

140

130

100100

90

70

Debt Value

=

50

43

33

26

20

Equity Value

+

90

87

67

64

50

- Most widely used model in practice
- Formula: Single-Business Company
- Equity Value = Operating Value - Debt Value
Operating and Debt values are calculated by taking their respective cash flows and discounting at rates that reflect riskiness of these cash flows

- Equity Value = Operating Value - Debt Value

140

130

100100

90

70

Debt Value

=

50

43

33

26

20

Equity Value

+

90

87

67

64

50

Equity Value = Operating Value - Debt Value

Or

Equity Value + Debt Value = Operating Value

- Formula: Multi-business Company
- Equity value =
Sum of the values of the individual operating units

+ Marketable securities

- Corporate overhead

- Value of company debt and preferred stock

- Equity value =

- Equity value = sum of units + securities - overhead - debt and pref. stock

Saab

Insurance division

Residential mort. services

Saturn

EXAMPLE: GM spinning off bus. lines or selling bus. Segments.

They need to valuate how much four segments are worth.

- Value of operations
- Equals the discounted value of expected future free cash flow
- Free cash flow=
after tax operating earnings

+ non-cash charges (deprec. etc.)

- investments in operating working capital, property, plant, and equipment, and other assets

- Free cash flow =
sum of the cash flows paid to or received from all the capital providers

- Free cash flow=

- Equals the discounted value of expected future free cash flow

Equity Value = Operating Value - Debt Value

- Value of operations
- The discount rate applied to the free cash flow should reflect the opportunity cost to all the capital providers weighted by their relative contribution to the company’s total capital, or WACC
- opportunity cost is the rate of return the investors could expect to earn on other investments of equivalent risk

- Value of operations
- How to include indefinite life of a business?
- Separate the value of the business into two periods
- during a precise forecast period
- after a precise forecast period

- Value = present value of cash flow during precise forecastperiod + present value of cash flow after precise forecast period
- The value after the precise forecast period is the continuing value
Continuing value = NOPLAT (1-g/ROICi) WACC-g {page 136}

- Separate the value of the business into two periods

- Value of debt
- Equals the present value of the cash flow to debt holders discounted at a rate that reflects the riskiness of that flow

- Value of equity
- Equals the value of the operations plus non-operating assets, less the value of its debt and any non-operating liabilities

- Drivers of Free Cash Flow and Value
(evaluate FCF used for valuation)

- The rate at which the company is growing revenues
- Growth Rate = ROIC x Investment rate

- Return on invested capital (relative to the cost
of capital, or WACC)

- ROIC = NOPLAT / Invested capital

- If ROIC > WACC , then value is greater
- If ROIC = WACC, then value is neutral
- If ROIC <WACC, then value is destroyed

- The rate at which the company is growing revenues

- Drivers
- To increase value, a company must do one or more of the following
- Earn a higher return on invested capital
- Ensure that ROIC (new) exceeds WACC
- Increase the growth rate (keeping ROIC above WACC)
- Reduce WACC

- To increase value, a company must do one or more of the following

Invested 20% operating profits

Invested 40% operating profits

- Reasons for recommending the enterprise DCF model:
- The model values the components of the business (each operating unit) that add up to the enterprise value
- The approach helps to identify key leverage areas
- It can be applied consistently to the company as a whole or to individual business units
- It is sophisticated enough to deal with the complexity of most situations, yet easy to carry out with personal computer tools

- Value equals the amount of capital invested plus a premium equal to the PV of the value created each year.
- Useful measure for understanding a company’s performance in any single year.
- Economic Profit equals the spread between ROIC and the cost of capital times the amount of invested capital
- Economic profit = Invested capital x (ROIC - WACC)
- Translates the two value drivers (growth and ROIC) into a single dollar figure
Example: Economic profit = $1000 * (10%-8%)

= $1000 * 2%

= $20

- Economic Profit is the after-tax operating profits less a charge
for the capital used by the company

- Economic Profit = NOPLAT - Capital charge
= NOPLAT - (invested capital x WACC)

- The approach says that the value of a company equals the
amount of capital invested plus a premium or discount equal

to the present value of its projected economic profit

- Value = Invested capital + present value of projected economic profit

Economic profit = Invested capital x (ROIC - WACC)

Economic Profit = NOPLAT - Capital charge

= NOPLAT - (invested capital x WACC)

Economic Profit Valuation Summary

Equity Value9,385

Economic Profit Valuation Summary

Equity Value9,385

- The APV model discounts free cash flows to estimate the value of operations, and ultimately the enterprise value, where the value of debt is then deducted to arrive at an equity value.
- This is very similar to the enterprise DCF model, except:
- APV model separates the value of operations into two components
- The value of operations as if the company were entirely equity-financed
- The value of the tax benefit arising from debt financing

- APV model separates the value of operations into two components

- The APV model reflects the findings from the Modigliani-Miller propositions on capital structure
- In a world with no taxes, the enterprise value of a company (the sum of debt plus equity) is independent of capital structure (or the amount of debt relative to equity)
- The value of a company should not be affected by how you slice it up

“Mr. Berra, would you like your pizza cut into

six or eight pieces?”

“Six please, I am not hungry enough to eat eight.”

The pizza is the same size no matter how

many pieces you cut into it!

- The implications of MM for valuation in a world without taxes are
- the WACC must be constant regardless of the company’s capital structure
- Capital structure can only affect value through taxes and other market imperfections and distortions

- The APV model
- 1) values a company at the cost of capital as if the company had no debt in its capital structure (the unlevered cost of equity)
- 2) adds the impact of taxes from leverage.

Page 149

APV value of FCF9,390

Value of debt tax shield 642

Non-operating assets 450

Total enterprise value 10,482

Less: value of debt 1,282

Equity Value9,200

Equity Value9,200

FCF Valuation Summary

Equity Value 9,385

Why is there a difference in the equity values?

- Comparison…
- In the enterprise DCF model, this tax benefit is taken into consideration in the calculations of the WACC by adjusting the cost of debt by its tax benefit
- In the APV model, the tax benefit from the company’s interest payments is estimated by discounting the projected tax savings
- The key to reconciling the two approaches is the calculation of the WACC

- Relating WACC to the unlevered cost of equity assuming that the tax benefit of debt is discounted at the unlevered cost of equity
WACC = ku - kb (B/(B+S)) T

Whereku = unlevered cost of equity

kb = Cost of debt

T = Marginal tax rate on interest expenses

B = Market value of debt

S = Market value of equity

The enterprise DCF model assumes that the capital structure and WACC would be constant every period

However, the capital structure does change every year

A separate capital structure and WACC can be estimated for every year

Equity Value9,200

Enterprise DCF Adjusted for Changing Capital Structure

Equity Value 9,200

- The equity DCF model discounts the cash flows to the equity owners of the company at the cost of equity

- This model also needs to be adjusted for the changing capital structure. It is necessary to recalculate the cost of equity every period using the following formula
- ks = ku + (ku - kb)(B/S)
Where ks = levered cost of equity

- ks = ku + (ku - kb)(B/S)
- Once the adjustment is made, the value using the equity DCF approach is the same as the APV approach and the enterprise DCF model with WACC adjusted every period

- Once the adjustment is made, the value using the equity DCF approach is the same as the APV approach and the enterprise DCF model with WACC adjusted every period.

Equity Value9,200

Adjusted Enterprise DCF Valuation Summary

Equity Value 9,200

Adjusted Equity DCF Valuation Summary

Equity Value 9,200

- The equity DCF approach is not as useful as the enterprise model (except for financial institutions) because
- Discounting equity cash flow provides less information about the sources of value creation
- It us not as useful for identifying value-creation opportunities
- It requires careful adjustments to ensure that changes in projected financing do not incorrectly affect the company’s value
- It requires allocating debt and interest expense to each business unit, which creates extra work, yet provides no additional information.

- Option Valuation Models
- Models which adjust for management’s ability to modify decisions as more information is made available.

- DCF Approaches
- Using real instead of nominal cash flows and discount rates
- Discounting pretax cash flow instead of after-tax cash flow
- Formula-based DCF approaches

Economic Profit Model

Advantage over DCF Model:

EP is a useful measure for understanding a company’s performance in any single year, while cash flow is not

Enterprise DCF Model

Advantage:

Values the components

Pinpoints key leverage areas

Consistent

Can handle complex situations

Easy to carry out

Enterprise DCF

Economic Profit

Equity DCF Model

Advantage:

Simple and Straightfoward

Disadvantage:

Provides less information

Requires careful adjustments

APV Model

Advantage over Enterprise DCF Model:

APV is easier to use when the capital structure is changing significantly over the projection period

Equity DCF

Adjustment

Adjustment

APV