1 / 58

Global Warming

Global Warming. So What? . December 2013. WATER. FOOD . Rainfall becomes more variable. Planet-wide, we get a little more rain. Around the Arctic gets lots more, mid-latitudes (20-40°) less. . Yet in any one place, we get more hours and days without rain . In other words,

quasar
Download Presentation

Global Warming

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Global Warming So What? . December 2013 .

  2. WATER FOOD . Rainfall becomes more variable. Planet-wide, we get a little more rain. Around the Arctic gets lots more, mid-latitudes (20-40°) less.. Yet in any one place, we get more hours and days without rain. In other words, we get more downpours and floods, yet also longer, drier, hotter droughts.

  3. Droughts Worsen . Evaporation increases. Droughts Worsen.

  4. Greenhouse Effect Dark Earth absorbs sunlight. Earth warms up and radiates heat. Greenhouse gases in the air (GHGs) intercept some outgoing radiation and re-radiate it back down. This warms Earth more. More GHGs = warmer still. Light surfaces reflect sunlight. Those surfaces don’t warm Earth much. Changing a light surface (ice) to a dark one (water) warms Earth. Changing a dark surface (forest) to a lighter one (desert) cools Earth.

  5. Greenhouse Gases • GHGs warm Earth by 32°C (58°F). Earth would average 0°F without them. • Water vapor (H2O) does 2/3 of this warming. As Earth warms up, evaporation increases H2O in the air. This amplifies warming from other GHGs a lot. • Carbon dioxide (CO2) does 55% of the rest. Almost all US CO2 comes from burning coal, oil & natural gas. Per unit of energy, coal emits 4 units of CO2, oil 3, natural gas 2. • Methane (CH4, natural gas) does 16%. CH4 comes from wetlands, cows, leaky coal mines & gas wells, rice, landfills. • CFCs, ozone, nitrous oxide, and other gases do the rest.

  6. • CO2 Levels in the Air , Up 41% highest level in 15 million years Earth then was 5-11°F warmer. (34% Since 1880) Seas then were 80-130 feet higher. Annual Averages CO2 level as high 3.5 million years ago Earth then was 3-6°F warmer. Seas then were 65-120 feet higher. This means ice then was gone from almost all of Greenland, some of East Antarctica. most of West Antarctica, and 300 ppm (maximum between ice ages) We appear already committed to far bigger effects than we’ve seen so far. So far, half the CO2 we’ve emitted has stayed in the air. The rest has gone into carbon sinks. Most of the difference between 280 and 395 ppm of CO2 remains to be seen. - into oceans, trees, soils, rocks. CO2 Levels in Air

  7. Sun vs Temp . ∆ °C Watts / m2 - World Radiation Center - NASA Solar Irradiance at Earth Orbit, Annual Average Global Air Temperature, Land Surface, 3-Year Moving Average In 2007, solar output was the lowest yet recorded (in 28 years), but Earth’s air temperatures (land surface) were the highest yet recorded.

  8. Sulfates &Cooling Dark sulfates in the air block sunlight. Sulfates make haze More sulfates= cloudier = cooler. Most sulfates come from burning coal, SO2 goes up the smokestacks. GHGs stay in the air many years, GHG levels keep rising. Sulfates now offset 45% of GHG warming. That cools Earth. & become cloud condensation nuclei. some from volcanoes. It changes to SO4 (sulfate) up in the air. sulfates usually for days. Sulfate levels don’t. Maybe 1.0°C.

  9. • ∆°C sulfates still 3x 1880 levels NASA GISS - Earth’s 7,000 weather stations - adjusted for urban heat island effects warmingunmasked Brown . cloud. grows over .. China, India. . Sulfates fall 27%. cool Sulfate Cooling Un-Smooths GHG Warming Coal-Fired Power Plants Pinatubo erupts Sulfates fall 13%. Sulfates up 46%. Sulfates up 52% (61/40). cool Sulfatesup 110%. El Chichón erupts major cooling cool warming unmasked cool Katmai, Colima erupt USSO2 cuts start. Agung erupts Santa Maria, Soufriere, Pelee erupt warming unmasked cool Krakatoa erupts Great Depression cool less SO2 up the stacks cool cool Cooling offsets GHG warming. Cooling offsets GHG warming. Cooling limits GHG warming. 40 61 89 116 118 77 162 1880 2000 Sulfate Levels in Greenland Ice milligrams of Sulfate per Ton of Ice (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2002)

  10. Earth Is Heating Up. Earth now absorbs 0.25%more energy than it emits – a 380 millionMWheat gain 380 million MW This absorption has been accelerating, from near zero in 1960. Airat the land surface is 1.1°Cwarmerthan a century ago. Half that warming happened in the last 33 years. Earth must warm another 0.6°C . just so it emits enough heat to balance absorption. • Airat the sea surface is 0.8°C warmerthan a century ago. 84-90% of the energy Earth absorbs heats the oceans. . The oceans have gained ~10 x moreheat in 40years than ALL the energyhumans have EVER used. ~ means “approximately, roughly, is about equal to” 1°C = 1.8°F. One MW can power several hundred US homes. (±75 million MW) = 80 xglobalelectric supply = 25 x human energy use. , so far,

  11. • +5.8°F / century trend Warming Table & Graph . +12.1°F / century By 2100, with 5.8°F warming per century, Saginaw’s summer would be almost as hot as Bristol’s now, while Bristol’s would be almost as hot as Tupelo’s today. By 2100, with 12.1°F warming per century, Saginaw’s summer would be almost as hot as Tupelo’s now. Baltimore’s would be as hot as Waco’s now, Moline’s almost. Using this data, 2012’s summer heat becomes a new US normal (once / 2 years) in 22 years (2034). A US summer as hot as 2012 is already expected once every 35 years Warming was fastest in Roswell (+15.8°F / century), Bristol & Butte. 2012 was cooler than normal (1978-2012) in Astoria, Bartow, Houma & Oakland; and cooler than the new normal also in Boston, Bristol, Hampton, & Macon; but record hot in Aspen, Butte, Duluth & Norfolk NE & as hot as 2011 every 32. Bartow & Houma cooled. , & in 2011 in Enid, Macon, Roswell, Waco & Yuma.

  12. Tipping Points • Report to US & British Legislators - January 2006 What would make climate change accelerate, so natural forces defeat our efforts to slow it? • Disappearance of sea ice means more heat is absorbed by the water below. • Carbon sinks fade & fail in oceans & forests. Some become carbon sources. 3 Methane release from permafrost revs up warming in a vicious circle.

  13. The Way It Is . “We are already experiencing dangerous human interference in the climate system. … I sometimes say that the situation we are in is like driving a car with bad brakes toward a cliff in the fog.” President Obama’s Science Adviser . John Holdren, April 8, 2009 .

  14. More Heat - So? Water Hurricanes convert ocean heat to powerful winds & heavy rains. Intense hurricanes are becoming more common. Higherhurricane energy closely tracks sea surface warming. With more carbon, oceans have grown more acidic. So, forming shells is more difficult. They dissolve easier. Warmer water holds less dissolved oxygen. Fish & mollusks suffer. Oceans warmed 0.15°C over 1997-2004, so planktonabsorbed 7% less CO2. Warming was far strongest in the North Atlantic. CO2 uptake therefell by half. Ocean phytoplankton levels may be down 40% since the 1950s. Phytoplankton supply half of Earth’s oxygen.

  15. Reservoirs in the Sky Most mountain glaciers dwindle ever faster: in the Alps, Andes, Rockies, east & central Himalayas. When Himalayan glaciers vanish, so could the Ganges River (& others) in the dry season. When Andes glaciers vanish, so does most of the water supply for Lima and La Paz. Mountain snows melt earlier. CA’s San Joaquin River (Central Valley, US “salad bowl”) could dry up by July in most years. The Colorado River’s recent 10-year drought was the worst since white men came.

  16. Earth’s Thermostat. Minimum ice area fell 37% in 34 years, Arctic Ocean ice could vanish by fall in 4 years Greenland’s netice-melt rate rose 5xover the past 15 years. Its yearly net melt-water already 1/2 of US water use. The situation is similar in Antarctica.. So, sea level will likely rise 1-7 feet by 2100 . Thawing Arctic permafrost has 5 xMORE carbon than ALL our fossil fuelsemitted. Already, Arctic permafrost emits ~ as much carbon as all US vehicles. Thawing permafrost can add ~100ppm of CO2 to the air by 2100, 280 more by 2300. Seabed methane hydratesand stores under Antarctic ice hold much more carbon. Arctic Ocean ice is shrinking fast. PIOMAS U of Bremen Wipneus The ice got thinner too. , 53% in the last 10. while volume fell 72% & be gone all summer in 10. & far more afterward.

  17. Hot &Dry From 1979 to 2005, the tropics spread. . Sub-tropic arid belts grew ~140 miles toward the poles, . a century ahead of schedule. . That means our jet stream moves north more often. In turn,the US gets hot weather more often. 2011-12 was America’s hottest on record. . Over September 2011 - August 2012, relative to local norms, 33 states were drier than the wettest state (WA) was wet. In 2012,44 of 48 states were drier than normal. Severedrought covered a record 35-46% of the US . Drought reduced the corn crop by a quarter. . The soybean crop was also hit hard. The Mississippi River neared a record low. Lake Michigan hit one. By 2003, forestfires burned 6 x as much area / year as before 1986. Pine bark beetles ravage Rocky Mtn forests.. What Else? , for 39 weeks. Record prices followed. US fires to double by 2050.

  18. Notable Recent Droughts When I was young, the leading wheat producers were the US Great Plains, Russia’s steppes, Canada, Australia, and Argentina’s Pampas. . When Where How Bad 2003 France, W Europe record heat, 20-70 thousand die 2003-10 Australia worst in millennia 2005 Amazon Basin once a century 2007 Atlanta, SE US once a century 2007-9 California emergency, record low rain in LA 2008-9 Argentine Pampas worst in half century 2008-11 North China ~worst in 2 centuries 2009 India monsoon season driest since 1972 2010 Amazon Basin worse than once a century 2010 Russia record heat & forest fires 2011 Texas, Oklahoma record heat & drought 2012 US: SE, SW, MW most widespread in 78 years

  19. Is That All? No .. Over 1994-2007, desertsgrew from 18 to 27% of China’s area. With more evaporation & irrigation, many water tables fall .. Since 1985, half the lakes in Qinghai province (China) vanished. 92% in Hebei (around Beijing), Irrigation wells chase water ever deeper. Water prices rise. Inland seas and lakes dry up& vanish: the Aral Sea, Sea of Galilee, Lake Chad (Darfur), Lake Eyre. More riversfail toreach the sea: the Yellow,Colorado, Indus, Darling Rivers so far. Water 3-20 feet/ year. as water tables dropped below lake beds.

  20. • Droughts Are Spreading Already. Switch from what could happen to what has happened already. 30% = 16 million square miles combined effect 10 million more square miles Compare 2002 to 1979. 11% of the area during 1951-80: once per 9 years Area whererain is scarce increased by quite a bit: 3-6 million square miles. Evaporation increased, by a lot since 1987. Compare 30% actualsevere drought area in 2002 (11% of the time during 1951-80) to 27% projected for 2000-2004 in previous slide. from Fig. 9 in Aiguo Dai, Kevin E. Trenberth, Taotao Qian [NCAR], "A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870-2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming,” Journal of Hydrometeorology, December 2004, 1117-1130 Droughts spread, as projectedor faster. Evaporation at work Earth’s area in severe droughthastripledsince 1979. Over 23 years, the area with severe drought grew by the size of North America.

  21. as projected SUMMARY or faster. Severedroughthas arrived, Severe droughtnow afflicts an area the size of Asia. So, farmers mine groundwater ever faster for irrigation. From 1979 to 2002 (+0.5°C) . 1) The area where rain is scarce increased by the size of the United States. Add in more evaporation.. 2) The area with severe drought grew by the size of North America. 3) The area suffering severe drought tripled. 4)The similarly wet area shrankby the size of India.

  22. Turning Wheat into Cactus . In 2005-6, scientists calculated how climate would change for 9 Northeast and 6 Great Lakes states in 2 scenarios: #1 - a transition away from fossil fuels, or #2 - continued heavy reliance on them (business as usual emissions). By 2085, averaged across 15 states, the climate change would be like moving 330 miles to the SSW (coal & oil use dwindle), or moving 650 miles to the SSW (heavy coal & oil use). Consider central Kansas, heart of wheat country. 330 miles to the SSW lies the area from Amarillo to Oklahoma City. 650 miles to the SSW lies the area around Alpine & Ft. Stockton, TX. 2 people / square mile. Cactus grows there. Mesquite & sagebrush too. No wheat

  23. • ExtremeDroughtCanClobberEarth • In 1989, NASA climate models showed, as CO2 levels rise and Earth warms up, droughts would spread and intensify. • “Once-per-9-year” droughts would cover 27% of Earth by 2002. • With business as usual emissions, by 2059 CO2 levels would double pre-industrial levels. • As a result, Earth would warm 4.2°C [7.5°F] from 1880 levels. Rain would increase 14%. • Despite the added rain, increased evaporation would bring extreme “once-a-century”drought to 45% of Earth, & rising. WET DRY 0 1 5 16 36 36 16 5 1 0 % Occurrence in Control Run Fig. 1d in David Rind, R. Goldberg, James Hansen, Cynthia Rosenzweig, R. Ruedy, “Potential Evapotranspiration and the Likelihood of Future Droughts,”Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 95, No. D7, 6/20/1990, 9983-10004. .

  24. UN Chief on Climate Change . Some scientists are saying publicly that if humanity goes on with business as usual, climate change could lead to the collapse of civilization, even in the lifetime of today's children. United Nations Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon said “I think that is a correct assessment.” He added carefully “If we take action today, it may not be too late.” September 24, 2007

  25. What Drives Drought? The water-holding capacity of air rises exponentially with temperature. Air 4°C warmer holds 33% more moisture at the same relative humidity. . more moisture in the air does not equal more clouds. To maintain soil moisture, ~10% more rain is required to offset each 1°C warming. Warmth draws more water UP (evaporation), so less goes DOWN (into soils) or SIDEways (into streams). Morewater isstoredin theair,lessinsoils. Not all the water that goes up comes back down. Thus,

  26. Droughts - Why Worry? . Droughts - Why Worry? 2059 - 2 x CO2 (Business as Usual Emissions) . More moisture in the air, Average US stream flows decline 30%, Tree biomass in the eastern US falls by up to 40%. More dry climate vegetation: The vegetation changes mean • Biological Net Primary Productivity falls 30-70%. SWITCH from PROJECTIONS to ACTUALS. . • Satellites show browning of the Earth began in 1994. . Rind et al., 1990 but 15-27% less in the soil. despite 14% more rain. savannas,prairies, deserts Fung 2005 Zhao 2010

  27. Crop Yields Fall. Rind et al., 1990 - 3 of the big 4 crops (rice is the 4th) United States: 2059 Projections - doubled CO2 - Business as Usual • Great Lakes, Southeast, southern Great Plains • Corn, Wheat, Soybeans 2 Climate Models (Scenarios) . • NASA GISS Results Goddard Institute for Space Studies • Yieldsfall30%, averaged across regions & crops. • NOAA GFDL Results Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Lab • Yieldsfall50%, averaged across regions & crops. CO2 fertilization not included . So things won’t be this bad, especially this soon. Temperature effects of doubled CO2 will keep growing - eventually to 4.2° or 4.5°C - but over many decades, even after 2100. CO2fertilization boosts yields 6-30% or more in experiments, where water and other nutrients are well supplied, and weeds and pests are controlled. That won’t happen as well in many fields. Groundwater and snowmelt for irrigation grow scarcer in many areas. Other factors (esp. nitrogen) can limit growth. CO2 fertilization has diminishing returns. (based on 4.2°C warmer, 14% more rain) (based on ~ 4.5°C warmer, 5% less rain)

  28. Photosynthesis, Warming & CO2 . Plants evaporate (transpire) water in order to [like blood] get it up to leaves, where H2O & CO2 form carbohydrates, pull other soil nutrients up from the roots to the leaves, and [like sweat] (3) cool leaves, so photosynthesis continues & proteins aren’t damaged. When water is scarce, fewer nutrients (nitrogen, phosphorus, etc.) get up to leaves. So, with more CO2, leaves make more carbohydrates, but fewer proteins.

  29. Warming & Falling Yields . For wheat, corn & rice, photosynthesis in leaves slows above 35°C (95°F) and stops above 40°C (104°F). Warming(above 35° or 40°C) hurts warm, tropical areasharder& sooner. Over 1992-2003, warming above the norm cut rice yields by 10+% / °C. Over 1982-98, warming in 618+ US counties cut corn & soybean yields ~17% / °C. With more CO2, 2°C warming cut yields 8-38% for irrigated wheat in India. Warmer nights since 1979 cut rice yield growth 10%± in 6 Asian nations. Warming since 1980 cut wheat yield growth 5.5%, corn 3.8%.

  30. Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields Heat Spikes Devastate Crop Yields Schlenker & Roberts 2009 . Based on 55 years of crop data from most US counties, and holding current growing regions fixed, average yields for corn and soybeans could plunge 37-46%by 2100 with the slowest warming and plummet 75-82%with quicker warming. Why? Corn and soybean yields rise with warming up to 29-30°C, but fall more steeply with higher temperatures. Heat spikes on individual days haveBIG impacts. More rain can lessen losses. Plants transpire more water to cool off. Growing other crops, or growing crops farther north, can help too.

  31. World Grain Production . 80% of human food comes from grains. World grain production rose little from 1992 to 2006. Production per capita fell from 343 kilograms in 1985 to 306 in 2006. • UN Food & Agriculture Organization Worldwatch Institute 2006

  32. World Grain Stocks . Any future food production increases will occur away from the tropics. In the tropics, food production will fall. Soil erosion continues. Water to irrigate crops will grow scarcer, as glaciers and snowpacks vanish, water tablesfall, and rainfall becomes more variable. Satellites show that, since1994, hotdrysummersoutweighwarm, wet springs. A world that was turning greener is now turning browner. Grainstocks (below) are at low levels. FAO: Crop Prospects and Food Situation

  33. Food Price Index . Poor people could not afford to buy enough food in 2007-8. . Malnutrition & starvation rose. Food riots toppled governments in 2011. and 2010. With food stocks at low levels, food prices rose steeply in 2007-8 2002-04 = 100 UN, Food & Agriculture Organization: World Food Situation / FAO News Ditto 2010-11.

  34. • World Food Prices . Over 2005-7, . world prices . rose 125% . for wheat, . 100% for corn, . 27% for rice.+. soybeans 83%. in just 1 year.. Look at 2008.. Over 2006-7, . food prices rose . 18% in China, . 13%inIndonesia. & Pakistan, . 10+% in India, . Russia & . Latin America. . Over 2007-8, world food prices rose20-150%.. In the US, food prices rose too: whole wheat bread 12%, milk 29%, eggs 36%. Why? Grain for ethanol, High oil prices UN: Food & Agriculture Organization Rice Wheat Corn 2012 2009 2013 2008 2011 2010 2007 more meat for China, droughts in Australia, Ukraine, Russia ,devalued $. mean more $ for fertilizer & pesticides, & especially to fuel pumps & tractors.

  35. • Deserts Are Already Spreading. 75 60 45 30 15 0 -15 -30 -45 -60 50 Year Trend in Palmer Drought Severity Index, 1950-2002 The Sahara Desert is spreading south, into Darfur & the Sahel. . The Gobi Desert is spreading into northeast China. More sandstorms visit Beijing. Retreating glaciers moisten the soil in Tibet.. -180 -120 -60 0 60 120 180 Fig. 7 in Dai, Trenberth & Qian, Journal of Hydrometeorology, Dec. 2004 -6.0-4.0-2.0 0.0 +2.0 +4.0 +6.0 More negative is drier. More positive is wetter. See Spain, Italy, Greece. The USA lucked out till 2007.

  36. 2°C has become unavoidable. 2° vs 4° Warming . 1.1°C warming is here. Holding warming to 2°C, not 4°, prevents these losses: 3/4 of Gross World Product $42 Trillion ~ 3/4 of GWP 1/5 of the World’s Food . 2/3 of Amazon Rainforest 1/8 of the world’soxygensupply Gulf Stream + West Antarctic Icecap . Florida & Louisiana, central CA, Long Island, Cape Cod 1/2 of all Species . 2°C warming is manageable. Details to follow: first 2°C, next 3°, then 4°, finally 5°C. - Norfolk area, much of 4°Cthreatens civilization itself.

  37. * also includes CH4, O3, SO4, etc. 2°C Warming - 450 ppm CO2e*.. Many more major floods (Waxman-Markeybill or Kerry-Boxerbill in Congress) . Stern Review, British government, Oct. 2006 . (a report by scores of scientists, headed by World Bank’s chief economist) . selected effects - unavoidable damages. • Hurricane costs double. • Major heat waves are common. • Droughts intensify. • Civil wars & border wars over water increase: • Crop yieldsrisenowhere, fall in the tropics. • Greenland icecap collapsebecomes irreversible. • The Ocean begins its invasion of Bangladesh. Forestfires worsen. Deserts spread. more Darfur’s.

  38. 3°C Warming - 550 ppm CO2e Stern Review + (McCain-Lieberman bill, watered down) additional damages – avoidable • Droughts & hurricanes get much worse. • Hydropower and irrigation decline. • Crop yieldsfallsubstantiallyin many areas. • More water wars & failed states. • 2/3ofAmazonrainforestmayturntosavanna,desertscrub. • Tropical diseases (malaria, etc.) spread farther & faster. • 15-50%of species face extinction. Water is scarce. Terrorists multiply.

  39. .4°C Warming - 650 ppm CO2e.. Stern Review (double pre-industrial levels) (Bush proposal) further damages - avoidable • Water shortages afflict almost all people. • Crop yieldsfallinALLregions,by1/3inmany. • Entire regions ceaseagriculture altogether. • Water wars, refugee crises, & terrorism become intense. • Methane releasefrom permafrost accelerates. • The Gulf Stream may stop, monsoons often fail. • West Antarctic ice sheet collapse speeds up.

  40. 5°C Warming . my extrapolations 5°C Warming - 750 ppm CO2e (Business as Usual Emissions) . Deserts GROW by 2 x the size of the US. World food falls by 1/3 to 1/2. Human population falls. to match the reduced food supply. Other species fare worse. We may hit 5°C by 2100. a lot,

  41. The Stakes . The costs of failing to tackle the climate change issue would be greater than the impact of both World Wars and the Great Depression combined. Once the damage from unchecked emissions growth is done, no retrospective global agreement, in some future period, can undo that choice. British Prime Minister Gordon Brown October 19, 2009

  42. • CO2 Emission Paths to Stabilization . Stern Review CO2e (CO2 equivalent) includes warming from CO2 & other GHGs, less the cooling effect of sulfates. -32% Total Warming +3°C -67% -75% +2°C The paths assumeNOemissionsfrompermafrostor seabedmethanehydrates. We are already at 450 ppm CO2e (including 398 of CO2). Holding eventual warming to 2°C may no longer be possible, unless we take lots of CO2 out of the air. 450 ppm CO2e = 398 CO2 + 315 other GHGs - 263 sulfate cooling.

  43. Costs ―––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––-–––––----––––––––––––––––– Costs ofInaction: including $120 billion ($400 / American) in the US for 2012 . Already 0.5 million / year die worldwide,. $74 Trillion . This exceeds GWP. . a HUGE hiddenTAX:$50,000 / American $85 / Ton of CO2 ―––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––------–––––––––––––––––––––– Costs ofAction: Spend 1% of GWP ($150 billion by US), each year, ± 2%. Damages fall to $25 - $30 / Ton of CO2. World Savings ~ $2.5 Trillion, net from each year’s spending. inflation-adjusted $, Business as Usual Stern Review DARA, Watkiss / Hope, now $695 Billion/Year (more than 1% of GWP), (almost 1% of US GNP). +4.5 million from coal sulfates. Costs GROWover time. : 2005-2200) (present value (2%/year discount rate) annualized: $1.5 Trillion / year $30-75 / year / American – CBO, EPA

  44. Take Carbon Out of the Air! perennial grass roots add carbon to soil. Lots more rain soaks in. 1 Rebuildprairie grasslands: Imitate buffalo herds, with short rotation cattle grazing. Dung beetles move carbon underground. Absorb ~ 2 Tons carbon / acre / year. • Put CO2 intocrushedrock. Rocks have weathered slowly for eons, taking CO2 out of the air.. Spread around millions of 2-story towers with crushed rock. 3Farmtheoceans. 8 x the carbon in our food More fertilizer (K, P, N) may be needed. Take 80ppm CO2 from the air. Speed up natural process 50,000 x. Feed iron to algae. They suck CO2 from the air. just breaks even.. Algae may not sink. Other problems will arise..

  45. Take More Carbon Out of the Air! Add silicates during hydrolysis at sea surface: grabs CO2 from air. 5 Make biochar. Bury it in shallow pits. 6 Planttrees, maintainforestsoils: Below-ground carbon ~ above-ground (20-50°). Trees need water, but soils will have less. A Add Sulfates to the Stratosphere – to block sunlight. We’d need hundreds of flights every day to the stratosphere by big cargo planes. The sulfates will fall out eventually, Also, we’d need to beware of shifting rain from one region to another. B Loft Mirrors into Space – to block sunlight. We’d need half a million square miles of mirrors now, twice the size of Texas. Add that much in 30 years, and again in 50. C Create more clouds, or whiten them more. humus, roots, fungi, bacteria, leaves. But deforestationcontinues. Drought, fires shrivel forests. Geo-Engineering Band-Aids: Smoke & Mirrors so we will breathe them in.

  46. • World CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuels32.6 Billion Tons in 2011 US DOE / EIA . . . In late 2009, Chinapledged tocutits CO2 intensity 40-45% by 2020, India 20-25%. Chinawind powergrewmore than coal. * Misc. = Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Taiwan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Bangladesh, etc. In 2012, In 2013-4, 7 China mega-cities start carbon cap & trade.

  47. CO2 Emissions by Nation, Year . CO2 Emissionsfrom Fossil Fuels (Billion Metric Tons) China Misc. Asia= . Korea, Indonesia, Thailand, Bangladesh, Taiwan, Philippines, Malaysia, Vietnam, etc. Mid-East & Central Asia In 1992, Ukraine etc. to Europe, Kazakhstan, etc. to Central Asia. Misc. Asia Other Asia Japan India US M-E & CA = Turkey to Pakistan & Kazakhstan Europe Other USSR Latin America Africa Canada Russia Oceania = Australia, NZ, etc.

  48. America’s Low-Carbon Revolution Has Begun US DOE / EIA US DOE / EIA Net Imports US DOE / EIA US DOE / EIA

  49. Companies are set to cash in on greentechnologies. For example, . GE Wind Philips Electronics (CFL lighting) Evergreen Solar (PV cells) Archer Daniels Midland (ethanol & biodiesel) Entergy (nuclear plants) Johnson Controls (energy management systems) Bechtel (IGCC coal plants) Magna International (lightweight auto parts) Wheelabrator (landfill gas) Southwestern Energy (natural gas) Halma (detect water leaks) Veolia Environnement (desalinization plants). PV = photovoltaic. IGCC = integrated gasified combined cycle, helps sequester CO2. CFL = compact fluorescent light. Meanwhile, the insurance industry has begun to act. • Re-insurers – Lloyd’s of London, Swiss Re, and Munich Re – look to cut theirlosses by urging governments to mitigate climate change. • Direct insurers – like Allstate, State Farm, MetLife, Hartford – are cutting back coverage in vulnerable areas, such as Florida. • Nebraska insurance commissioners require planning for drought risk. Large investors (> $20 Trillion in managed assets) have pushed 100+ companies to disclose their climate-relatedrisks to shareholders. The market values high-carbon emitting companies lower. Carbon disclosure raises stock prices. ExxonMobil is #1 target.

  50. • US CO2 Emissions, by Use . Concentrate on the BIG stuff: coal for electricity (with a carbon cap)&personal transportation. * Trucks, airlines, railroads, buses, pipelines, ships 2012: USDOE - EIA (US Department of Energy - Energy Information Administration)

More Related