Current contributions of the CCRS/AD/Environmental Monitoring Section to surface water supply scienc...
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Current contributions of the CCRS/AD/Environmental Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes. CCRS, Environmental Monitoring Section Presented by Richard Fernandes, A/Head. Canada Water Accounts.

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Current contributions of the CCRS/AD/Environmental Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

CCRS, Environmental Monitoring Section

Presented by Richard Fernandes, A/Head


Canada water accounts
Canada Water Accounts Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

  • AET estimates for typical land cover classes over point locations with sufficient long term records of climate data.

    • Historical run based on observations 1960-2000

    • Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC scenarios

  • AET estimates for all sub-sub-basins in Canada. 1960-2000

    • Historical run based on observations 1960-2000

    • Projections based on 3 IPCC models x 3 IPCC scenarios

  • http://132.156.21.53:8080/reseau/servlet/LoadAll


Spatial sampling and modelling domain
Spatial Sampling and Modelling Domain Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


E g province of alberta
e.g. Province of Alberta Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


Basic definitions
Basic Definitions Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

  • Evapotranspiration ET –net water exchange between land or water surface and atmosphere.

  • Transpiration T – net water exchange from within vegetation.

  • Evaporation E= ET – T

  • Reference crop evapotranspiration (ETo) - ET from a hypothetical grass reference crop with specific characteristics no short of water.

  • “The use of other denominations such as potential ET is strongly discouraged due to ambiguities in their definitions. “http://www.fao.org/docrep/X0490E/x0490e04.htm#evaporation


Ealco land surface model
EALCO Land Surface Model Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

Wang S.,et al. 2002a, Climatic Change, 55: 451-477

Model initialization data

0.5 hourly meteo-forcings

Input parameters (Remote sensing geospatial data)

Model Output (0.5 hourly water balance components)


Satellite eo inputs
Satellite EO Inputs Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


In situ eo input
In-situ EO Input Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

Canadian Weather Energy & Engineering Data Sets(CWEEDS)

Hourly Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp, Humidity, Pressure for 1960-2000.

Mean Annual Precipitation (1961-1990) [mm/year]

CWEEDS DATA GAPS (%hours missed)

  • Canadian Daily Climate Data (CDCD) stations:

    • Daily observations of

    • Total Precipitation and

    • Air Temperature


Gridded in situ eo

NCEP NARR, Precip., 85 March 10, 06:00 Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

Gridded In-situ EO

Climate Research Unit East Anglia Gridded Analysis

Monthly 0.5 degree

Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp,

Humidity, Pressure,wind for 1960-2000.

NCAR Regional Reanalysis 2

3-Hourly 30km

Rain, Snow, Insolation, Temp,

Humidity, Pressure, wind for 1960-2000.


Gcp scenario runs
GCP Scenario Runs Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

  • 3 GCM Models run over 3 IPCC 4AR scenarios

  • Models: CGCM, Hadley, NCAR

  • Scenarios

    • SRESA1 – business as usual

    • SRES A2 – moderate mitigation;

    • SRES B1 - aggressive mitigation

  • Monthly difference fields observed to baseline datasets. No spatial downscaling.

  • Baseline year taken randomly from 5 “climatalogically” most similar years.

  • Some issues with suitability of scenario runs.


Historical trends in et at points
Historical Trends in ET at Points Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

Slope of modelled annual ET relative to 1960-2000 Mean Modelled ET.

Dominant land cover LAI soils.

Mann-Kendall significance of modelled annual ET trends 1960-2000.

Dominant land cover LAI soils.


Regional historical trends in et
Regional Historical Trends in ET Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes

Climate zone average of modelled annual AET anomalies.

Dominant land cover LAI soils.

Assumes input from precipitation only (no net inflow)

Impact of CO2 on AET Trends


Projected trends in aet
Projected Trends in AET Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


Comparison to Diagnostic Models Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


Uncertainty due to scenarios and ipcc models is large
-Uncertainty Due to Scenarios and IPCC Models is Large Monitoring Section to surface water supply science within ESS Climate Change Programmes


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