A Deadly Interaction: Assessing the Interplay of Oil and Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil ...
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A Deadly Interaction: Assessing the Interplay of Oil and Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War. Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder. Inspiration . Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World (Boix 2008)

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A Deadly Interaction: Assessing the Interplay of Oil and Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

Julian Rosenthal-Erickson and Shom Mazumder


Inspiration
Inspiration Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

  • Economic Roots of Civil Wars and Revolutions in the Contemporary World (Boix 2008)

    • The interaction effect of significant export revenues from oil and income inequality is a determinant for the onset of civil war.

  • What if we apply this to duration instead?


  • Background
    Background Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

    • Three Broad Theories of Civil Conflict (Collier, Hoeffler, and Soderbom 2004)

      • Rebellions-as-Investment

      • Rebellions-as-Business

      • Rebellions-as-Mistake

    • The specifics are still up to debate.


    Argument
    Argument Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

    • Hypothesis

      • Interaction of oil and income inequality leads to shorter civil wars.

        • What is interaction?

    • Causal Mechanism

      • Capital and Liquidity


    Empirics n 435
    Empirics (N=435) Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War


    Case studies
    Case Studies Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

    • Nigeria

      • High gini, large revenues from oil

      • Short war

    • Iran

      • High gini, large revenues from oil

      • Long war

    • Why?


    Implication
    Implication Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

    • Is oil a resource curse?

      • Depends on how you look at it.

    • Future work

      • Investments in risky areas

      • Deeper look into interaction of variables


    Take away points
    Take Away Points Income Inequality on the Duration of Civil War

    • Interaction of oil and income inequality is significant and robust given our data

      • Income inequality’s significance is debatable

    • Oil empowers the privileged class

    • All about your perspective


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