Review for the Final: I

1. Review for the Final: I Concepts and Analytics

2. Part ICoordinating the Components of the Criminal Justice SystemPart IIThe Serious Offender

3. Questions About Crime • Can we explain trends in crime and trends in expenditure on the criminal justice system? • What is the right mix of enforcement and corrections?

5. Schematic of the Criminal Justice System “The Driving Force” Causes ?!! Weak Link Offense Rate Per Capita Crime Generation Expected Cost of Punishment (detention, deterrence) Expenditures Crime Control

6. Conclusions • Causal conditions continue to get worse • As a consequence we have to spend more real dollars per person to keep crime levels from rising • Crime acts like a tax • Californians spend $450 (1992$) per person on criminal justice to keep things from getting worse

7. Question • What happened around 1980 to differentiate the 50’s, 60’s, and 70’s from the 80’s and 90’s? • was there a change in behavior? • was there a change in policy?

10. Law Enforcement Prosecution Courts Public Defense State Prisons Other Corrections

11. Abstraction (Model) of the Criminal Justice System New Admits Enforcement Prosecution Defense Courts State Prisons Mean Years Served

12. Tradeoff Between Criminal Justice System Outputs Admits per Year per capita  average years served tan = admits per year per capita/average years served

13. Capital constraint • admits per capita per year * average years served = prisoners per capita • Prisoners per capita is limited by prison capacity • If you increase admits per capita per year, then average years served decreases until prison capacity catches up

15. Coordinating CJS Constraint: Admits per year*Average years served = Prisoners Admits per Year 45 degrees Average Years Served

16. A Shifting Mix In Criminal Justice System Outputs Facts 1. spend more 2. Admit more 3. shorter time served  Admits per Year per capita, AD  Prison Capacity Constraint   average years served, S tan = admits per year per capita/average years served

17. 1994 1986 1952 1975

18. Part II • The Serious Offender • a few serious criminals account for most crimes • if free, each serious offender would commit crimes at the rate of per year • if there are N serious offenders, they would commit *N offenses per year, if free • if there are PR serious offenders in prison, then we save *PR offenses per year • the net observed offenses per year is: • OF = *N - *PR = (N -AD*S)

19. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population

20. Serious Offenders, N Prisoners, PR Population If the Serious Offender Population grows faster than the Prison Population then crime gets worse

21. Likelihood of Going to Prison in a Lifetime For Newborn 1/4 1/6 1/10 1/23 Source: Prevalence of Imprisonment in the U. S. Population, 1974-01

22. Social Control Population In Formerly In 10%

24. Social Control of Citizenry • Civil law and authority • First line of defense: moral compliance and good citizenship • Second line of defense: deterrence (the threat of punishment) • Third line of defense: detention • Martial law and authority • Fourth line of defense: National Guard and the Army

25. 100 % Percent Control Riot 99% 98% Martial Law Civil Law Moral Compliance Deterrence Detention National Guard

26. Is Criminal Justice Just?

27. Questions About Crime • Are there Inequities by Income class? • for victims? • Are there ethnic or racial injustices? • for victims? • for offenders?

29. US Family Income, 1994 Source: US Statistical Abstract

30. Why is Income Distributed So Unevenly? • Labor Income is Unevenly Distributed • Part-time work • less than 50 weeks per year • less than 36 hours per week

32. Victimization Rates by Income Class Source: Report to the Nation on Crime and Justice, Second edition

34. Census Tracts in Towns in the Boston Area Housing Value Crime % Zoned for Lots > 25,000 Sq. Ft.

35. Public Goods and Private Goods • Private Goods • consumption uses them up • what you eat is not available to nourish others • Public Goods • consumption does not use them up • national defense • safe streets • educated citizenry

36. How Much Government Should There Be? What is the right mix of public goods and private goods? Private Goods Too Few Public Goods Optimal Mix Slope of the Production PossibilityFrontier: Marginal Cost of Public Goods ÷ Marginal Cost of Private Goods PublicGoods

37. The Family and Delinquency

38. The Family and Delinquency • What is the role of the family in causing or preventing delinquency? • How important is the family in considering possible causes of delinquency?

39. Source: Glenn C. Loury, Ch 1 of Families, Schools, and Delinquency Prevention, eds. James Q. Wilson and Glenn C. Loury

40. If the father is sufficiently altruistic, then the daughter’s enlightened self-interest is to prefer point A, and she can be induced to behave in a cooperative way, allowing point J that leads to point A Daughter’s Income A R J Father’s Income

42. Where does Criminal Justice go from here? • California • Strong economy leads to lower property crime rates • Higher imprisonment rates lead to lower rates of violent crime • National Policy • Drug treatment programs • Eisenhower Report(1999): More Prevention

43. Rearrest rates for CA prison Inmates rise to 67% within 3 years after release.