The “Thucydides-Trap” between the US and China? Domestic Perspective

The “Thucydides-Trap” between the US and China?Domestic Perspective Univ.-Prof. Dr. Xuewu Gu Chair in International Relations & Director of Centre for Global Studies, University of Bonn, Germany

Will Beijing and Washington fall into the Thucydides-trap? • Thucydides: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable.” • Graham Allison: When a rising power challenges the predominance of an established power, war is “more likely than not.” • My point: China and the US are hardly to escape the Thucydides-trap not mainly because of the US-fear, but because of the systematic heterogeneity of the two countries. Source: FT montage; Shakko/CC

Increasing systemic competition • Systemic homogeneity easing power displace (USA/UK) • The bigger the systematic heterogeneity, the higher the likelihood of a war (US/Soviet Union, proxy wars) • The exclusivity of democratic aggressiveness to autocratic regimes may make trouble

Theory of democratic peace and consequences of systematic heterogeneity

Phenomenon 1: • “Inter-democratic Peace”

Phenomenon 2Exclusivity of democratic aggression to non-democracy

Phenomenon 3:Democratic supremacy to autocratic states in wars“Democracies are more likely to prevail in wars with autocratic states.”

Can Beijing and Washington avoid the “Thucydides-trap”?Still absence of intention to fight a major war • “Peaceful Rise” remains China´s philosophy • U.S. strategy: containment instead of military solutions • Functioning mutual mechanisms for misperception avoidance

However: Clear signs for “Liberal Aggression” of the US against China Increasing “Anti-CCP Consensus” in Washington Increasing actions on “decoupling” of US economy from China Increasing provocations in HK, Taiwan and South China Sea Xi´s options: capitulation, escalation or attrition?

Thanks for your attention

The “Thucydides-Trap” between the US and China? Domestic Perspective