Espon 2006 programme action 1 1 4 the spatial effects of demographic trends and migration
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ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION. Lead partner and coordinator: Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden Partners: Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon

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ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4: THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND MIGRATION

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Espon 2006 programme action 1 1 4 the spatial effects of demographic trends and migration

ESPON 2006 Programme Action 1.1.4:THE SPATIAL EFFECTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDSAND MIGRATION

Lead partner and coordinator:

Swedish Institute for Growth Policy Studies (ITPS), Stockholm, Sweden

Partners:

Centre for Geographical Studies (CEG), University of Lisbon Foundation, Lisbon

University of Vienna, Institute for Geography and Regional Research, Vienna

IGEAT, ULB, Bruxelles

University G.d'Annunzio, Department of Economy and History of the Territory, Pescara

NIBR, Oslo

VÁTI, Budapest


Matrix for policy implications and policy recommendations

Matrix for policy implications and policy recommendations

Policentricicity – both means and objective


Policy recommendation 1 stimulate natural population increase and tfr

Policy recommendation 1: Stimulate natural population increase and TFR

Points of departure:

  • Difficult through policy recommendations stimulate natural population development

  • Natural population development – cohort phenomenon

  • Natural population development – often a result of the age and gender structure

    Recommendations:

  • A common (European) social and family policy and a more active labour market policy that stimulates higher fertility

  • Better female labour market conditions stimulate childbearing

  • Out-migration regions – more attractive

  • Better child care – public or private (the three generation family is gone, defamilisation is a fact)


Tfr 1999 to the left more disaggregated in appendix a natural growth potential 2020 to the right

TFR 1999 to the left (more disaggregated in appendix A) Natural growth potential 2020 to the right


Espon 2006 programme action 1 1 4 the spatial effects of demographic trends and migration

Policy recommendation 2: Hamper future asymmetrical east-west migration and stimulate symmetrical migratory flows

Implications:

  • Increased east-west migration erodes territorial cohesion.

  • Out-migration of qualified people have negative consequences on spatial development and competitiveness

    Recommendations at meso and macro levels:

  • Stimulate symmetrical migratory flows

  • Close the gap in living conditions (in a wider sense) between regions and nations – symmetrical migratory flows

  • Stimulate structural transformation of the economy among the new EU-members – risks in short run but necessary in the long

  • Stimulate regional enlargement (even across borders) –

    larger local labour markets, decreased mismatch

  • Better accessibility

  • Don’t hamper migration in general – migration and mobility are lubricants for economic development!


International migratory balance left and immigrations rates right

International migratory balance (left) and immigrations rates (right)


Policy recommendation 3 about depopulation

Policy recommendation 3: About depopulation

Implications:

  • depopulation - a risk for many regions both in short and long term

  • depopulation erodes territorial and social cohesion as well as competitiveness and sustainability

    Recommendations:

  • Multifunctional perspective on the agricultural sector in combination with better accessibly and services (micro/meso/macro)

  • Stimulate local and regional services to hamper out-migration (micro)

  • Sustainable use of resources and avoidance of environmental/ecological pressure in densely populated regions can be hampered by a successful policy to hamper out-migration from depopulation areas (micro/meso)

  • Stimulate growth poles in the depopulation areas (micro/meso)


Population change left and relative structural depopulation right

Population change (left) and relative/structural depopulation (right)


Policy recommendation 4 replacement migration

Policy recommendation 4: Replacement migration

Point of departure: Immigration is necessary in various degrees to hamper the decrease in population and labour force in EU29.

Recommendations:

  • Sustainable development will not be achieved if immigrants are free to settle down wherever they want in EU29.

  • Immigration policies must promote immigration to peripheral areas that must be done more attractive.

  • Focus on immigrants with different skills and competence concerning various countries and regions in EU29. The need differ with regard to the economic and labour market structure.

  • Higher female labour force participation rates

  • Stimulate productivity development and structural transformation – substitute labour with capital and labour with labour


Replacement migration 2000 2050 of population model a the worst case and unrealistic

Replacement migration 2000-2050 (% of population)– model A (the worst case and unrealistic)

Assumptions:

Constant TFR

No migration

No productivity development


Gaps and further research

Gaps and further research

Gaps:

  • Difficult to construct longer time series for EU29 at NUTS3

  • Migratory movements: origin and/or destination both with EU29 and external migration

  • Data on international migration only on NUTS2 - impossible to distinguish intra29-migrant from and extraEU29-migrant on NUTS3

  • Life expectancy data at regional levels

  • For many countries – elderly people are not disaggregated (only 70+)

  • The scale problem – more data on NUTS4/5

    Further research:

  • Migratory gross flows and origin/destination on NUTS3 both with regard to internal and international migrations – necessary to analyse symmetrical migratory movements

  • Educational level of the migrants are in many cases missing

  • Age and gender structure at NUTS3 is “shaky” and for many countries nonexistent

  • The scale problem: NUTS2 and NUTS3 are in many cases too rough in order to analyse depopulation and the post-industrial migration and pattern.

  • The development from an industrial to a post-industrial migration and settlement pattern is a research field that will be increasingly important concerning spatial analyses


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