Preliminary proposal by Christopher Cunningham – CPTEC, Brazil -

1. Research and Development Project for improving the prediction of heavy precipitating systems over La Plata Basin LPB-ReD Preliminaryproposalby Christopher Cunningham – CPTEC, Brazil- Celeste Saulo –CIMA/UBA, Argentina- Alice Grimm – UFPR, Paraná, Brazil-

2. Research andDevelopment Project (RDP) • RDPs can be field campaigns, model or assimilation based, or geared to social science research. The RDP focus is on advancing knowledge in research topics relevant to improving the prediction of high-impact weather and/or the development of improved tools, techniques, and models. • Steps: • Preliminary proposals • Comments from the WWRP-JSC • Proposal

3. Motivation • This RDP is motivated mainly by the lack of comprehensive understanding about the processes that determine severe weather events in the La Plata Basin –particularly those related with heavy precipitation-, and our limitation to provide skillful forecasts which would contribute to minimize their impacts.

4. Why La Plata Basin? Inhabitants: 201.656.965 Area: 3.100.000 km2 La Plata Basin, is formed by the discharge of waters from five countries: Argentina, Brazil, Uruguay, Bolivia and Paraguay. Its population surpasses 200 millions. It accounts for the generation of most of the electricity, the food and the exports of these countries Mega-cities: Sao Paulo-Buenos Aires Otherlargecities: Asunción-Sucre-Montevideo

5. Synoptic variability and type of severe weather documented over LPB • Heavy and/or persistent rains (frequently leading to floods and slides) • SACZ (summer) – blocking events (winter) – MCS (spring and summer) – cyclogenesis (autumn and spring) • Severe storms (tornado, wind gusts, hail, intense precipitation, lighting, etc) • Droughts • Warm/cold spells • Late Frosts Intra seasonal to seasonal time scales signature

6. Less frequent More severe Severe storms More frequent Less severe Zipser et al 2006

7. Percentageof surface rain from 2A25 explainedby MCS , courtesy Paola Salio

8. Briefhistory • In 2005, a La Plata Basin Continental Experiment was approved under the auspices of WCRP-GEWEX Programme, hence oriented to climate variability and hydrology • In the CAS-XV (2009), the Commission noted the very early planning stages of a Heavy Rainfall RDP for the Plata River Basin in South America • This early proposal was revisited and presented during the 9th GIFS-TIGGE meeting, when the recommendation was to submit a formal application for a WWRP FDP/RDP Very successful cooperation during the SALLJEX field experiment (WCRP/VAMOS )

9. Mainobjectives • To improve the assessment of state-of-the-art models ability to anticipate extreme weather conditions and to quantify their skill over LPB; • To analyze the sources of model errors in order to feedback the development of models itself; • To evaluate the impact of extra data in the quality of forecasts; • To use TIGGE outputs and other available ensemble systems  to develop products/tools adequate for extreme weather forecast in the region and evaluate them in the operational context;

10. Proposedactions • It is necessary to carry out a workshop for discussion of the research that should be undertaken in the RDP. Some issues to be discussed: • use of ensemble forecast information for mitigation of severe weather impacts; • techniques of ensemble forecasting applied to severe weather; • forecast experiments using an enhanced network of observations (i.e.CHUVA); • seamless approach: role of subseasonal- seasonal variability on predictability over LPB • other research and methods to achieve the objectives (including very high resolution models) • RDP timeline

11. Start up workshop • Date: september 2012 • Place/host: CTPEC – Cachoeira Paulista, Brazil • Attendants: ~30 people, includingproposers, expertsonensembleprediction-verification-MCS dynamics/observationalcomponent/modeling (bothfromtheregion and fromabroad) • Funding: CPTEC isrequestingforfundingtosupportthismeeting

12. Summerschoolonthe use and verification of ensembleforecasts –withemphasisonapplicationsto extreme weatherevents- • Date (before and/oraftertheWorkshop) • Objective: disseminate the basic concepts behind ensemble prediction and evaluation, in order to homogenize the level of knowledge of the users of information. • Target: operational forecasters, graduate students and end-users of the meteorological information • Place: CPTEC • Trainers: experts that are attending the workshop • Funding: ¿? (individual countries?)

13. Possibility to synchronize an FDP with the agenda of the field experiment CHUVA ? • Organize the RDP exploiting the availability of radar, GPS and other special datasets that will become available through CHUVA? CHUVA= (Cloud processes of tHemain precipitation systems in Brazil: A contribUtion to cloud resolVing modeling and to the GlobAl Precipitation Measurement) http://chuvaproject.cptec.inpe.br/portal/en/index.html

14. Team (alreadyconfirmed) • Christopher Cunningham (CPTEC/INPE - Brazil) • Celeste Saulo (UBA/CIMA - Argentina) • Alice Grimm (Universidade Federal do Parana - Brazil) • Jose Paulo Bonatti (CPTEC/INPE - Brazil) • Osvaldo Moraes (CPTEC/INPE - Brazil) • DirceuHerdies (CPTEC/INPE) • Pedro Leite da Silva Dias (LNCC/MCT - Brazil) • Claudia Campetella (UBA and SMN - Argentina) • Martina Suaya (SMN- Argentina) • Juan Ruiz (CIMA/UBA - Argentina) • Paola Salio (CIMA/UBA Argentina) • Julián Baez (Dirección de Meteorología e Hidrología Paraguay, and UNIVERSIDAD CATÓLICA DE ASUNCION) • Marcos Andrade (Universidad Mayor de San Andres, Bolivia) • Luis Blacutt (Universidad Mayor de San Andres, Bolivia)

15. Formal support • Official letter of support and endorsement by CPTEC has been sent to CAS-WMO • Official letters of support by Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay Weather Services are in process

16. In progress… • Increased involvement from Uruguay and Bolivia (contacts already started) • Involvement with other THORPEX components: eg. THORPEX North America (C. Saulo has been in contact with M. Peña Mendez NOAA). Possibility to reproduce an initiative similar to NAEFS? • SERA participation? (contacts with Brian Mills) • Participation of Spain Met Service: José García-Moya Zapata -Chief of development and applications Dept- AEMET) expressed his interest in supporting training activities related with ensemble prediction

17. In progress • Participation of experts from different WWRP-WGs interested on this -advice from JSC- • Contacts with the National Electric System Operator –Brazil- by C. Cunningham • Contacts with Water resources agencies (Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina) and Early Warning Systems (e.g. Civil Defense, from LPB countries) • Involvement of CEMADEN (National Center for Natural Disasters Monitoring and Alerts- Brazil)

18. What do weneedfrom WWRP? • Evaluation, comments and suggestions after the outcomes of our first meeting (by october 2012) • Could TIGGE become operational between November 15 and December 15, 2012 in support of CHUVA and this “starting RDP”? • ¿Could some of the TIGGE products already developed for other regions –specially those related extreme events- be adapted to this area and be operational during CHUVA-Santa María period? (they could previously be employed during the training course, even in a non-operational mode) • Financial support for training courses and workshops and/or parallel sessions in other meetings (specially to facilitate the access of attendees and young scientists) that could be held afterwards (2013-2014). • Promote involvement of experts from other regions that could share knowledge/tools/facilities/expertise.

19. Thankyou!Questions? Suggestions?