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X - . _. z = . -.  X. Wow! We can use the z-distribution to test a hypothesis. Step 1. State the statistical hypothesis H 0 to be tested (e.g., H 0 :  = 100) Step 2. Specify the degree of risk of a type-I error, that is, the risk of incorrectly concluding

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  1. X -  _ z = - X Wow! We can use the z-distribution to test a hypothesis.

  2. Step 1. State the statistical hypothesis H0 to be tested (e.g., H0:  = 100) Step 2. Specify the degree of risk of a type-I error, that is, the risk of incorrectly concluding that H0 is false when it is true. This risk, stated as a probability, is denoted by , the probability of a Type I error. Step 3. Assuming H0 to be correct, find the probability of obtaining a sample mean that differs from  by an amount as large or larger than what was observed. Step 4. Make a decision regarding H0, whether to reject or not to reject it.

  3. Step 1.What would it look like if this is random? Step 2. Specify the degree of risk of a type-I error, that is, the risk of incorrectly concluding that H0 is false when it is true. This risk, stated as a probability, is denoted by , the probability of a Type I error. Step 3. Assuming H0 to be correct, find the probability of obtaining a sample mean that differs from  by an amount as large or larger than what was observed. Step 4. Make a decision regarding H0, whether to reject or not to reject it.

  4. Step 1.What would it look like if this is random? Step 2.If the reality is that it is indeed random, what risk can I live with to wrongly conclude that it’s not random? Step 3. Assuming H0 to be correct, find the probability of obtaining a sample mean that differs from  by an amount as large or larger than what was observed. Step 4. Make a decision regarding H0, whether to reject or not to reject it.

  5. Step 1.What would it look like if this is random? Step 2.If the reality is that it is indeed random, what risk can I live with to wrongly conclude that it’s not random? Step 3.What’s the exact value beyond which I can conclude, under that condition of risk, that it’s not random? Step 4.Make a decision regarding H0, whether to reject or not to reject it.

  6. Step 1.What would it look like if this is random? Step 2.If the reality is that it is indeed random, what risk can I live with to wrongly conclude that it’s not random? Step 3.What’s the exact value beyond which I can conclude, under that condition of risk, that it’s not random? Step 4.Make a decision regarding whether it’s not random (reject), or random (accept).

  7. An Example You draw a sample of 25 adopted children. You are interested in whether they are different from the general population on an IQ test ( = 100,  = 15). The mean from your sample is 108. What is the null hypothesis?

  8. An Example You draw a sample of 25 adopted children. You are interested in whether they are different from the general population on an IQ test ( = 100,  = 15). The mean from your sample is 108. What is the null hypothesis? H0:  = 100

  9. An Example You draw a sample of 25 adopted children. You are interested in whether they are different from the general population on an IQ test ( = 100,  = 15). The mean from your sample is 108. What is the null hypothesis? H0:  = 100 Test this hypothesis at  = .05

  10. An Example You draw a sample of 25 adopted children. You are interested in whether they are different from the general population on an IQ test ( = 100,  = 15). The mean from your sample is 108. What is the null hypothesis? H0:  = 100 Test this hypothesis at  = .05 Step 3. Assuming H0 to be correct, find the sample mean value that differs from  by an amount as large or larger than what might be observed by chance. Step 4. Make a decision regarding H0, whether to reject or not to reject it.

  11. GOSSET, William Sealy 1876-1937

  12. GOSSET, William Sealy 1876-1937

  13. The t-distribution is a family of distributions varying by degrees of freedom (d.f., where d.f.=n-1). At d.f. =, but at smaller than that, the tails are fatter.

  14. X -  X -  _ _ z = t = - - X sX s - sX =  N

  15. The t-distribution is a family of distributions varying by degrees of freedom (d.f., where d.f.=n-1). At d.f. =, but at smaller than that, the tails are fatter.

  16. Degrees of Freedom df = N - 1

  17. Problem Sample: Mean = 54.2 SD = 2.4 N = 16 Do you think that this sample could have been drawn from a population with  = 50?

  18. X -  t = - sX Problem Sample: Mean = 54.2 SD = 2.4 N = 16 Do you think that this sample could have been drawn from a population with  = 50? _

  19. The mean for the sample of 54.2 (sd = 2.4) was significantly different from a hypothesized population mean of 50, t(15) = 7.0, p < .001.

  20. The mean for the sample of 54.2 (sd = 2.4) was significantly reliably different from a hypothesized population mean of 50, t(15) = 7.0, p < .001.

  21. SampleC SampleD rXY Population rXY SampleB XY rXY SampleE SampleA _ rXY rXY

  22. r N - 2 t = 1 - r2 The t distribution, at N-2 degrees of freedom, can be used to test the probability that the statistic r was drawn from a population with  = 0. Table C. H0 :  XY = 0 H1 :  XY  0 where

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