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Status of HyMeX

Status of HyMeX. THORPEX meeting Genève 21-22 September 2011. Véronique Ducrocq CNRM-GAME Météo-France & CNRS veronique.ducrocq@meteo.fr. http://www.hymex.org/. HyMeX objectives Science topics.

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Status of HyMeX

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  1. Status of HyMeX THORPEX meeting Genève 21-22 September 2011 Véronique Ducrocq CNRM-GAME Météo-France & CNRS veronique.ducrocq@meteo.fr http://www.hymex.org/

  2. HyMeX objectivesScience topics • to improve our understanding of the water cycle,with emphases on thepredictability andevolution ofintense events • by monitoring and modelling: the Mediterranean coupled system (atmosphere-land-ocean), its variability (from the event scale, to the seasonal and interannual scales) andcharacteristics over one decade (2010-2020) in the context of global change The five science Topics • to evaluate the societal and economicalvulnerability to extreme events and the adaptation capacity.

  3. Observation strategy A « Nested » strategy: SOP: Special observing periods of high-impact events in selected regions of the EOP target areas (aircraft, R/V, balloons,…): process studies (research atmospheric/ocean field campaigns) LOP : Current operational observing system and observatories over the whole Mediterranean basin: budgets (data access for research) EOP: Enhanced existing observatories and operational observing systems in the target areas of high-impact events: budgets and process studies (hydrological field experiment) HyMeX data base is set-up and be progressively filled with LOP, EOP, SOP observations and models International Science Plan published in 2010, first draft of the Implementation Plan discussed at the 5th HyMeX Workshop in May 2011, new version for end of 2011.

  4. Model-observation synergy Seasonal and interannual variability Process Understanding Observations Models Regional Earth System models LOP/EOP observations Model Validation Convection-permitting ensemble hydrometeorological prediction systems SOP/EOP field campaigns Improvement of model parameterizations Mesoscale (incl. land surface) data assimilation Data assimilation in cloud/precipitation • with aims to: • quantify and reduce uncertainties of the future climate projections, • advance the modeling of the continental hydrological cycle and the monitoring of water resources and droughts • improve the prediction capabilities of high-impact events by developping convective-scale ensemble hydrometeorological forecasting systems and mesoscale data assimilation

  5. Example of the obs-model synergy: Regional Climate Modelling The climate models used for hindcast and scenarios will be run with the same set-up for the LOP/EOP/SOP periods 1960 1989 2001 2010 2020 2100 Hindcast: ERA40 done Hindcast: ERAInterim LOP/EOP/SOP2012-2013 IPCC-AR5 scenario (including decadal forecast) WCRP/MED-CORDEX Hindcast 1960-2010 21st century LOP/EOP/SOP process understanding variability scenarios All temporal scales model improvement HyMeX TTM3 – coord: P. Ruti & S. Somot

  6. MED-CORDEX/HyMeX Partners and models atm-ocean-land-river Atmosphere RCM ENEA MPI CNRM LMD Univ. Belgrade MORCE-MED UCLM/UPM COSMO-CLM (GUF) INSTM IC3 atm-ocean-land Same ARCM as in RCSM (25-50km) RegCM, ALADIN, WRF, ETA, LMD, PROMES, REMO, COSMO-CLM + other ARCM (50 km) TAU, IIBR, Univ. Istanbul (RegCM) + very high-resolution ARCM (10km) WRF, ALADIN, RegCM, COSMO-CLM (KIT) Regional Climate System Model in development

  7. Field campaigns in NW-Med SOP2: Intense air-sea exchanges (severe winds, dense water formation) SOP1: Heavy precipitation and flash-flooding SOP1: Sep.2012- Nov.2012 SOP2: Feb-March 2013 EOP+: Sep.2012- Nov.2013

  8. SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions Aircraft over the Sea SAFIRE Falcon 20 SAFIRE ATR-42 Two island sites for monitoring upstream conditions DLR Falcon 20 ? Dropsondes WV Lidar • CNES Boundary layer balloons over the Sea, launched from Menorca air-mer •  time frequency of soundings and AMDAR within sensitive areas (DTS, Eucos framework)

  9. SOP1 - Upstream atmospheric conditions The Corsica site Doppler wind Lidars Sodar, MWR, Cloud and K-band radar, Disdrometer, energy balance,and turbulence stations, Scintillometer, RS systems (KIT) The Balearic site Wind profilers (VHF, UFH) WV and aerosol lidars Boundary layer pressurized balloons (CNRS, CNES, Météo-France, AEMET) Wind profilers (VHF, UHF) Lightning sensors (CNRS) WV DIAL, Raman Lidar, X-band radar, Disdrometer (Univ. Honeheim) MiniVIEcube 70 Surface stations (Univ. Vienna)

  10. SOP1-Air-sea fluxes and ocean heat content KIT DO128 Short R/V cruises Turbulent air-sea fluxes Drifters including: SVP drifters Marisondes Argo floats Ocean mixed layer measurements Enhancement of the surface buoys and moorings with additional sensors (Radiation, raingauge,…) Ship of Opportunity carrying the SEOS (meteo) Box + GPS receiver + thermosalinometer Glider

  11. SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood • Aircraft flights with microphysics and aerosol payloads to monitor cloud and microphysics processes above sites well equiped with operational observation networksand with instrumented watersheds Entella River catchment F20 (2) Flight tracks F20 (1) ATR-42 (2) ATR-42 (1) Radar network

  12. SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood • Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA) Examples over the CI site

  13. SOP1 - Precipitating systems and Flash-flood • Microphysics, electricity and dynamics of the precipitating systems through enhancement with research instruments of some of the sites (CV, CO, CI, BA) Examples over the CV site • high-res GPS network for 3D WV field AMF-2 • Instrumented cross-coastal-barrier transect (modification of the marine moist low-level flow and cloud initiation/growth along the transect) • Additional research radars, lightning Mapping Array, raingage, discharge measurements

  14. Preparation of the SOP modelling systems • Preparation of the HyMeX operation center (HOC) co-located with the aircraft base (Montpellier, France), together with virtual operation centers (Spain, Corsica, Italie): webconference, web visualisation platform and forecaster visualisation platform (synergie), involvement of AEMET and Météo-France forecasters for morning briefing, supply of operational and research real-time modelling products Available ensemble forecasts. Available deterministic models.

  15. Preparation of the SOP modelling systems • Preparation of dedicated real-time operating mesoscale deterministic models over the Mediterranean during the field campaigns: example of AROME-WMED • Incl. Real Time assimilation of EOP-SOP specific observation Datasets (Drifting balloons,…) • More European radar data assimilated • (work on radar data format for assimilation • purposes), non-GTS hourly surface • observations,.. AROME-WMED (2.5 km) Link with DAOS (report on DAOS workshops) 48h forecast, from 00 UTC • Convection permitting ensemble prediction systems : • Design, implementation and validation of convective-scale EPS is an important objectives of HyMeX • Coupling of these atmospheric ensemble systems with hydrological models to issue hydrological ensemble predictions is an other important objectives • HyMeX SOP1 2012 serves as a testbed for these new EPS Link with TIGGE (report on TIGGE workshops)

  16. Preparation of the SOP modelling systems Streamflow simulated by the hydrological model ISBA-TOPMODEL for a flash-flood case over Southern France watersheds The model is driven by hourly precipitation fields derived from the AROME NWP operational suite - A object-oriented perturbation method is applied to the determinist QPF – Vincendon et al (2011) The model is driven by hourly precipitation forecast from an ensemble simulation based on the AROME model (resolution:2.5 km) - Global ARPEGE EPS used as LBC combined with ensemble data assimilation - Vié et al (2010) Legend: Streamflow simulated using: ensemble median ensemble members observations AROME determinist run ensemble spread between q 0.25 and q 0.75

  17. Preparation of the SOP modelling systems Running of fully coupled (atmosphere/ocean/wave) COAMPS ensemble system in near real time with high-resolution nests over NW Med (NRL, C. Bishop), in addition to operational products (MERCATOR, MyOcean). To provide adaptative sampling guidance for oceanic gliders HyMeX offers region and observations to build and test ensemble DA scheme with option for fully coupled DA. MISTRAL wind region is a laboratory for air/sea/wave coupling Example of the characterisation of the water column carried out with 9 gliders

  18. NOC Univ. Bristol McGill Env. Canada NOAA NRL NASA NCAR Univ. Connecticut, Colorado DMN Univ. Rabat ONM,CRAAG,INCT International Partnership Univ. Wageningen TU Delft,KNMI EUMETNET/EUCOS KIT, DLR, PIK Univ. Hohenheim CIESM CNRS/INSU Météo-France CNES INRA, BRGM CEMAGREF IGN,IFSTTAR GPM EPFL, ETH Univ. Vienna, ZAMG MHS, Univ. Zadar MHS AEMET, IMEDEA Meteocat,UCLM,ICM Univ. Barcelona, Balearic islands IMS COC CNR CINFAI ENEA OGS INGV ARPA CIMA INSTM NOA HCMR Univ. Athens IMS Univ. Jerusalem, Tel Aviv An international and multidisciplinary partnership (academic and operational communities, ocean-atmosphere-hydrology-social and economical sciences communities)

  19. Thanks for your attention

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