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2014 Long-Term System Assessment Introduction Jeff Billo, Manager, Transmission Planning

2014 Long-Term System Assessment Introduction Jeff Billo, Manager, Transmission Planning September 2013 Regional Planning Group. History.

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2014 Long-Term System Assessment Introduction Jeff Billo, Manager, Transmission Planning

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  1. 2014 Long-Term System Assessment Introduction Jeff Billo, Manager, Transmission Planning September 2013 Regional Planning Group

  2. History • Senate Bill 20 (79th Legislature, 1st Called Session [2005]) requires that the PUCT and ERCOT study long-term system needs and report to the Legislature each even numbered year • ERCOT has been conducting a Long-Term System Assessment (LTSA) on a biennial basis since 2006 • 2006, 2008, 2010 LTSAs focused on 10-year horizon • Work on 2012 LTSA bolstered by grant from the Department of Energy • Process improvements implemented • New tools utilized • Scope expanded to 20-year horizon

  3. How the LTSA has affected near-term analysis • 2008 LTSA indicated a reliability need to increase import capability into the Houston area by 2018 • In 2009 Sharyland Utilities and CenterPoint Energy submitted import project proposals • ERCOT endorsed the Fayetteville-Zenith 345 kV project (cancelled in 2012 due to change in planning criteria) • Valley Import Project, studied in 2011, used 2020 case from the 2010 LTSA to inform the project recommendation of which project alternative best met the long-term needs for south Texas • Cross Valley 345 kV project, studied in 2011, used 2020 case from the 2010 LTSA to identify long-term needs in the area • Led to the recommendation to route Cross Valley 345 kV line near South McAllen substation for future 345/ 138 kV connection • 2013 RTP preliminary results show need for this connection by 2018

  4. How the LTSA has affected near-term analysis cont. • 2012 LTSA indicated need for increased Houston import capability in all studied scenarios • Three TSPs proposed import projects into the Houston area this summer • Results from LTSA show need to consider long-term requirements for the area (see today’s Houston Import presentation) • 2012 LTSA indicated potential for large wind capacity build out in the Texas Panhandle in multiple scenarios (exceeding existing design capacity) • In part, led to the initiation of the Panhandle Renewable Energy Zone study in early 2013

  5. Lessons learned from the 2012 LTSA and DOE Project • Link near-term and long-term planning processes • Internal staff realignment: RTP and LTSA engineers now in same group • 2014 LTSA will use similar study process, assumptions and tools as RTP • ERCOT will select either UPLAN or PROMOD for both 2014 RTP and LTSA economic analyses • Analysis beyond 10-year horizon showed value, but not all stakeholders were comfortable with 20-year horizon • Suggest studying years 10 and 15 (2024 and 2029) • Continue to improve scenario development and assumptions • ERCOT will hold 1 to 3 workshops in October/ November • May hire consultant to facilitate workshops • Use more sensitivities to assumptions • The Brattle Group report recommendations will be evaluated in the future

  6. 2014 LTSA Goals • Provide a roadmap for the long-term transmission needs of the ERCOT System • Provide study cases for the use of near-term planners in the evaluation of large transmission additions to the ERCOT System

  7. 2014 LTSA Scope Proposal • Develop 6 to 8 scenarios for load/ generation development for 2024 and 2029 • Select 3 to 5 of those scenarios for transmission build out • Start with final 2018 case from 2013 RTP • Reliability analysis performed using similar assumptions to RTP • Economic analysis • Final report in December 2014 • Formal scope document will be presented at next RPG meeting

  8. Comments or Questions?

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