World Oil Production Trend:
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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend. Oil Price. A play Hubbert curve Technology Examples Lambda Hubbert Curve Lambda Hubbert Change Price Forecast. 1. A Play. What is this?. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs.

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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

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World Oil Production Trend:

How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend


Oil Price

  • A play

  • Hubbert curve

  • Technology

  • Examples

  • Lambda Hubbert Curve

  • Lambda Hubbert Change

  • Price Forecast


1. A Play


What is this?


This is Haynesville

It is the number of rigs


Why is the rig count going down?

1) Low natural gas price

2) Technology

3) Depletion


This suggests:

Shale can have quick peaks

and declines


2. Hubbert

Hubbert is a trend


Discovery and Production

Discovery

Hubbert Curve

Discovery,

Production

T0

T1

T2

Time

Production

Hubbert Curve


US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005


CQ

Hubbert Curve

CQ

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Time

CQD

0

URR

CQD

Cumulative Hubbert Curve

URR

0

Time


Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005


US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005


3. Technology


?


US Technology 2005


4. Examples

Examples of Hubbert

and

Technology


What is this?


It is the US


This is the US on Steroids


What is this?


This is the Soviet Union


This is the Soviet Union on Steroids


5. Lambda Hubbert

Risk aversion


Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological Maximum Supply

Path of Actual Oil

Production

Production

Paths of potential oil

production expansion

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


Venezuela and US 2005 Indexed Hubbert Curve


World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World Normal and Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation

Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation

QP = b1*CQP + b2*CQP1+λ


World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


6. Lambda HubbertChange

Forecast


7. Price Forecasts

Consolidating TRENDS


Conclusion

  • Hubbert, Hubbert , Hubbert.

  • Lambda Hubbert

  • Multi-cycle Lambda Hubbert

  • Looking at history shows:

    2nd cycles often short


  • World economy is hanging in the balance

  • A price shock can come at any time

    We are still in an Energy Crisis


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