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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend. Oil Price. A play Hubbert curve Technology Examples Lambda Hubbert Curve Lambda Hubbert Change Price Forecast. 1. A Play. What is this?. This is Haynesville It is the number of rigs.

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World Oil Production Trend: How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend

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World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Oil Production Trend:

How U.S. Shale Oil Production Changes the Trend


Oil price

Oil Price

  • A play

  • Hubbert curve

  • Technology

  • Examples

  • Lambda Hubbert Curve

  • Lambda Hubbert Change

  • Price Forecast


1 a play

1. A Play


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

What is this?


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

This is Haynesville

It is the number of rigs


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Why is the rig count going down?

1) Low natural gas price

2) Technology

3) Depletion


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

This suggests:

Shale can have quick peaks

and declines


2 hubbert

2. Hubbert

Hubbert is a trend


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Discovery and Production

Discovery

Hubbert Curve

Discovery,

Production

T0

T1

T2

Time

Production

Hubbert Curve


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

CQ

Hubbert Curve

CQ

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Time

CQD

0

URR

CQD

Cumulative Hubbert Curve

URR

0

Time


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

US Lower 48 Production versus cumulative production, up to 2005


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

US Lower 48 Production over time, up to 2005


3 technology

3. Technology


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

?


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

US Technology 2005


4 examples

4. Examples

Examples of Hubbert

and

Technology


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

What is this?


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

It is the US


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

This is the US on Steroids


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

What is this?


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

This is the Soviet Union


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

This is the Soviet Union on Steroids


5 lambda hubbert

5. Lambda Hubbert

Risk aversion


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological MAXIMUM Supply

Production

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Quadratic Hubbert Curve

Hubbert Curve

Based on

Geological Maximum Supply

Path of Actual Oil

Production

Production

Paths of potential oil

production expansion

Cumulative

Production

0

URR


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Venezuela and US 2005 Indexed Hubbert Curve


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Normal and Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

Normal Quadratic Hubbert Curve Equation

Lambda Hubbert Curve Equation

QP = b1*CQP + b2*CQP1+λ


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Curve 2009


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

World Lambda Hubbert Multi-Curve 2012


6 lambda hubbert change

6. Lambda HubbertChange

Forecast


7 price forecasts

7. Price Forecasts

Consolidating TRENDS


Conclusion

Conclusion

  • Hubbert, Hubbert , Hubbert.

  • Lambda Hubbert

  • Multi-cycle Lambda Hubbert

  • Looking at history shows:

    2nd cycles often short


World oil production trend how u s shale oil production changes the trend

  • World economy is hanging in the balance

  • A price shock can come at any time

    We are still in an Energy Crisis


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