ATS/ESS 452:  Synoptic Meteorology
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ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology Friday 22 Aug 2014 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology Friday 22 Aug 2014. Finish Overview Presentation Current Weather Discussion Begin Review Material. GOES-12 IR satellite image of Hurricane Bill at 0615 UTC 19 August 2009. GOES-12 IR satellite image, 0615 UTC 19 August 2009.

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ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology Friday 22 Aug 2014

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ATS/ESS 452: Synoptic Meteorology

Friday 22 Aug 2014

  • Finish Overview Presentation

  • Current Weather Discussion

  • Begin Review Material


GOES-12 IR satellite image of Hurricane Bill at 0615 UTC 19 August 2009

GOES-12 IR satellite image, 0615 UTC 19 August 2009


06 UTC GFS sea-level pressure (SLP) analysis for Hurricane Bill

GOES-12 IR satellite image, 0615 UTC 19 August 2009


Hurricane Bill was forecasted (correctly) to curve harmlessly out to sea.

But WHY did this happen?


GFS 60-h SLP + 500 mb forecast, valid 18Z Aug 21, 2009

What do you see that may be important to Bill’s forecast?

500 mb trough


GFS 84-h SLP + 500 mb forecast, valid 18Z Aug 22, 2009

Notice the interaction between the trough and Hurricane Bill.

The upper-level winds associated with the trough will “push” Bill out to sea.


How can we trust the previous GFS forecast for the trough interaction with Bill?

  • Model initiation errors?

    • Did the model initiate Bill at 980mb when it’s really 950mb?  Why is this important?

  • Forecast consistency

  • Many other models… what do they say?

  • Ensemble forecasting

  • Known model bias


A little more disagreement between model ensemble members.


Today’s Numerical Weather Models Are Pretty Good… Are Humans Still Needed?

  • Yes!! But roles are changing

  • Need to improve risk communication (e.g. April 27 outbreak), predictability and uncertainty in forecasting

  • Skill in augmenting the numerical forecast; local complexities which models often have difficulty in understanding

  • Demand is increasing for understanding and applying new technology

  • Still LOTS of research questions remain


Start To Get Familiar With…

MOS

NCEP Model Guidance

Another Good Model Site – TwisterData

Another Good Model Site – Earl’s Current Weather Page

Read NWS Area Forecast Discussions – HUN Example

Read SPC Products

HPC Sfc Products and Discussions


Current Weather Discussion


Begin Review MaterialReading Assignment:pp. 1 – 11 from Lackmann


Scales of Motion

Jet Stream, Trade Winds, Longwave pattern

Shortwaves, Fronts, Jet Streaks

Thunderstorms, Sea Breezes

Turbulence, Boundary Layer Phenomena

This information is important for simplifying the equations that describe our atmosphere through a process known as scale analysis

**Determine which physical processes are most important and which can you neglect.


Variables, Coordinates, & Units

  • Cartesian coordinate system (x, y, z) is the most typical coordinate system used in meteorology

    • x: zonal (East-West) direction; positive towards the east

    • y: meridional(North-South) direction; positive to the north

    • z: vertical (up-dpwn) direction; positive upward

  • What other coordinate system do you think we will use?

    • - Pressure coordinates


Variables, Coordinates, & Units

Wind velocity are based on the time rate of change in the distance along its respective coordinate axes following the airflow

zonal wind:

meridional wind:

vertical wind:

**start to refer to directions using these names

The Coriolis parameter (f) is related to the spin of the Earth and is given by:

where φ is the latitude and Ωis the rate of Earth’s rotation (7.292 x 10-5 rad s-1)


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